Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan poll early February 2015

February 23, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 891 of whom 846 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 02 September to 15 February 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 37
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 15 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-12.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+8.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+4.0%)
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3 News Reid Research Poll Jan 2015

February 2, 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 20 to 28 January 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 49.8% (+4.3%)
  • Labour 29.1% (+3.5%)
  • Green 9.3% (-5.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.3%  (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.6% (-1.4%)
  • NZ First 6.9% (-0.2%)
  • Conservative 2.7% (-2.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 36
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 12 = 48/122 – 14 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/122

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 44.0% (-0.1%)
  • Andrew Little 9.8% (-2.5% from Cunliffe)

Andrew Little as Leader

  • Better match for Key than predecessors 55%
  • The same 12%
  • Worse 18%
  • Don’t Know 18%

Leader Ratings

  • John Key – performing well 63%, performing badly 24%, net approval = +39%
  • Andrew Little – performing well 45%, performing badly 17%, net approval = +28%

Whale Oil

  • Key should stop texting Whale Oil 68%
  • Key should continue texting 18%
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Fairfax Ipsos poll 17 September 2014

September 19, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1001 respondents

Undecideds:

Dates: 02 September to 17 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 47.7% (-5.1%)
  • Labour 26.1% (+3.7%)
  • Green 12.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.6% (+2.2%)
  • Maori 0.9% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.4%)
  • Mana 0.9% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 4.5% (+0.9%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 51/124 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53.6% (-3.9%)
  • David Cunliffe 20.0% (+2.5%)

 

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One News Colmar Brunton 17 September 2014

September 19, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 838 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 12 September to 17 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 45.1% (-0.9%)
  • Labour 25.2% (+0.2%
  • Green 12.5% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 0.6% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.8% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 8.1% (+1.1%)
  • Conservative 4.4% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 10
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 10 = 13/122

On this poll the centre parties would hold the balance of power and National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First Party while Labour could only form a centre-left Government with both centre parties.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (-3.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (-1.0%)

 

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3 News Reid Research poll mid September 2014

September 17, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 09 to 15 September 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-2.2%)
  • Labour 25.6% (-0.5%)
  • Green 14.4% (+1.4%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 7.1% (+1.2%)
  • Conservative 4.9% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 33
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/124 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 3 = 12/124

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 44.1% (-1.2%)
  • David Cunliffe 12.3% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 9.1% (+1.2%)

Preferred Coalition Partner for National

  • All voters – NZ First 54%, Conservatives 37%
  • National voters – NZ First 36%, Conservatives 54%

Kim Dotcom and hacking

  • 38% think Kim Dotcom was behind hacking of Whale Oil’s e-mails
  • 32% do not
  • 30% unsure
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Roy Morgan poll mid September 2014

September 17, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 935 of whom 888 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 01 September to 14 September 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 24.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 13.5% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (+2.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 3.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 30
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 1 = 48/121 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 3 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First and the Maori Party would have the balance of power. National could govern with either of them, while Labour would need both of them.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (nc)

 

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Te Tai Tokerau poll

September 15, 2014

Maori TV poll in Te Tai Tokerau has found:

Electorate Vote

  • Harawira, Mana 38%
  • Davis, Labour 37%
  • Paenga, Maori 9%
  • Dearlove, Independent 1%
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Napier poll

September 14, 2014

Colmar Brunton reports a One News Colmar Brunton poll in Napier:

Party Vote

  • National 44%
  • Labour 25%
  • Greens 12%
  • Conservatives 9%
  • NZ First 7%

Electorate Vote

  • Labour 39%
  • National 33%
  • Conservatives 22%
  • Greens 6%
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Fairfax Ipsos poll 11 September 2014

September 14, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 873 have a party preference

Undecideds:

Dates: 04 September to 11 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 52.8% (-1.4%)
  • Labour 22.4% (-1.9%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.4% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.6% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 29
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 57.5% (-0.1%)
  • David Cunliffe 17.5% (nc)

Housing Policies

  • 49% prefer National’s home start grants
  • 38% prefer Labour’s Kiwibuild

Next National Leader

  • Bill English 33%
  • Steven Joyce 22%
  • Paula Bennett 11%
  • Simon Bridges 9%

Affordability of Spending Promises

  • National +42% (62% affordable, 20% unaffordable)
  • Labour -5%
  • NZ First -3%
  • Greens -26%
  • Conservatives -9%
  • Internet Mana -32%

Auckland Transport

  • City Rail Link 40% most important
  • 2nd harbour crossing 32%
  • Dominion Road upgrade 15%
  • Puhoi to Wellsford 12%

Auckland Growth

  • 55% support new suburbs
  • 38% build high rises

 

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NZ Herald DigiPoll 11 September 2014

September 12, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds:

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 682 had a party preference

Dates: 04 September to 10 September 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.6% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 24.6% (+0.8%)
  • Green 11.5% (+0.1)
  • NZ First 8.1% (+2.1%)
  • Maori 0.7% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.3% (-1.2%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 31
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 3 = 48/124 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 3 = 13/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 61.6% (-7.3%)
  • Cunliffe 17.9% (+3.9%)
  • Peters 7.8% (+1.4%)
  • Norman 3.3% (+1.0%)

Labour Leadership

  • 45% say  Cunliffe should stay on regardless of result
  • 32% say he should resign and not contest leadership
  • 14% say he should resign and contest leadership

Dirty Politics

  • 81% say the book will not change the way they vote
  • 15% say it will
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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