Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 voters of whom 841 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 2 to 6 April 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 50.0% (+3%)
• Labour 28.0% (-4%)
• Green 10.0% (+2.0%)
• NZ First 9.0% (-1%)
• Maori 1.1% (nc)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
• Conservative 0.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 34
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 11
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 11 = 45/121 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 39.0% (-1)
• Andrew Little 7.0% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 10.0% (+1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

• Better 43% (+5%)
• Worse 33% (-6%)
• Same 24% (+1%)

Sugar Tax

• 66% support a tax on soda drinks with sugar
• 29% oppose

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

• Support 32%
• Oppose 49%

Medical Marijuana (cannabis)

• Support 73%
• Oppose 21%

Immigration Levels

• More migrants 18%
• Fewer migrants 27%
• About right level 51%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,004 of whom 855 had a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 13 to 17 February 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (nc)
• Labour 32.0% (+1%)
• Green 8.0% (-4.0%)
• NZ First 10.0% (+1%)
• Maori 1.0% (+0.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.3% (+0.1%)
• Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 0.6% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 39
• Green 10
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 12
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 10 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 9.0% (+1%)
• Winston Peters 9.0% (+1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (-1%)

NZ Flag

• Current Flag 63%
• Alternative Flag 26%

Police Pursuits

• Police should be able to pursue any vehicle that fails to stop 68%
• NZ law should be changed 26%

TPP

• May impact our sovereignty and I’m concerned 44%
• May impact our sovereignty and not a big concern 22%
• Not much impact of sovereignty 24%

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 896 of whom 833 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early February to 14 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 48.5% (+1.5%)
• Labour 27.0% (-0.5%)
• Green 14.5% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
• Maori 1.0% (-2.0%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 33
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 11
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll National could form a CR Government with either ACT or United Future.

Country Direction

• Right 56.5% (-3.0%)
• Wrong 28.5% (+0.5%)
• Can’t Say 15.0% (+2.5%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early January to 17 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 47.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 27.5% (-1.0%)
• Green 14.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 6.5% (+0.5%)
• Maori 3.0% (+1.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 33
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• NZ First8
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 = 50/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 4 = 12/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power as both CR and CL would need them to form a Government. The CL would need NZ First also.

Country Direction

• Right 59.5% (nc)
• Wrong 28.0% (-3.0)
• Can’t Say 12.5% (+3.0%)

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 04 to 14 December 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 51.3% (+0.5%)
• Labour 31.1% (+0.1%)
• Green 8.2% (-1.0%)
• NZ First 5.7% (-1.2%)
• Maori 2.1% (+1.9%)
• United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
• ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Conservative 0.0% (-0.6%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 37
• Green 10
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 10 = 47/121 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 65.2% (+1.5%)
• Andrew Little 16.2% (+2.9%)
• Winston Peters 7.9% (-3.7%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.8% (-1.1%)

TPP

• 27% support (+5%)
• 26% oppose (-6%)
• 46% no view (nc)

Iraq

• Support deployment 63% (+4%)
• Oppose deployment 30% (-4%)

Obesity

• 53% say school tuck shops should ban unhealthy food
• 44% disagree

US Ship Visits

• 50% say a US visit would be positive
• 29% don’t want a visit
• 16% say a visit would be a triumph for NZ nuclear free policy

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 08 to 16 November 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 46.7% (-0.6%)
• Labour 32.3% (-0.7%)
• Green 10.2% (+0.2%)
• NZ First 7.5% (-0.4%)
• Maori 1.3% (+0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.8% (+0.2%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.7% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 39
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/122

On this poll National could form a CR government with either Maori Party or NZ First while Labour would need both the Maori Party and NZ First.

Preferred PM

• John Key 38.3% (-1.2%)
• Andrew Little 10.4% (-0.4%)
• Winston Peters 9.3% (+0.7%)
• Jacinda Ardern 4.2% (+0.7%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 862 of whom 806 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early November to 08 November 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 49.0% (-1.0%)
• Labour 29.5% (+0.5%)
• Green 12.0% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
• Maori 2.0% (+1.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (nc)
• Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 36
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

• Right 60.0% (+7.0%)
• Wrong 28.5% (-2.5%)
• Can’t Say 11.5% (-4.5%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 832 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 10 to 14 October 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (nc)
• Labour 31.0% (-1%)
• Green 12.0% (nc)
• NZ First 9.0% (+2%)
• Maori 0.8% (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Conservative 0.4% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 38
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 8.0% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 8.0% (+2%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

• Better 42% (+9%)
• Worse 33% (-12%)
• Same 25% (+3%)

Smoke free areas

• 53% support extending smoke free areas to outside areas of bars and restaurants
• 45% disagree

Contraception

• 70% say government should encourage contraception for mothers who have had multiple children placed into CYF care
• 24% disagree

Benefits in Australia

• 67% say NZ should restrict benefit eligibility for Australians, as Australia does for NZers

Australian Deportations

• 58% say NZ should deport Australians who have served prison sentences of 12 months or more

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 29 August to 02 September 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (nc)
• Labour 32.0% (nc)
• Green 12.0% (-1.0%)
• NZ First 7.0% (nc)
• Maori 1.2% (+0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
• Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
• Conservative 0.1% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 39
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 10.0% (+2.0%)
• Winston Peters 6.0% (-1.0%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 33% (-3%)
• Worse 45% (+4%)
• Same 22% (-2%)

NZ Flag

• Change flag 28% (+2%)
• Keep flag 66% (+2%)
• Unsure 6% (-3%)

Foreign Investment in Sensitive Land

• Continue current approval process 37%
• Ban all foreign investment in sensitive land 54%

Private Prisons

• Should should be privately run 21%
• All should be run by Corrections 69%

TPP

• Should sign 24%
• Not sign 44%
• Don’t know 32%

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subscriber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 of whom 660 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 14 August to 24 August 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 50.8% (-0.2%)
• Labour 31.0% (+2.3%)
• Green 9.2% (-1.6%)
• NZ First 6.9% (+0.8%)
• Maori 0.2% (-0.6%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.2% (-0.6%)
• Mana/Internet 0.2% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 0.6% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 38
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/122

On this poll National would be able to govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 63.7% (-0.9%)
• Andrew Little 13.3% (-0.6%)
• Winston Peters 11.6% (-0.4%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.9% (+3.4%)

Country Direction

• Right 50.9% (-4.4%)
• Wrong 40.9% (+4.9%)

Next National Leader

• Bill English 30.3%
• Steven Joyce 14.2%
• Paula Bennett 11.4%
• Simon Bridges 7.2%

Next Labour Leader

• Annette King 21.8%
• Jacinda Ardern 20.1%
• Grant Robertson 18.0%
• Phil Twyford 4.0%

Private Prisons

• 57% say prisons should always be run by the state
• 38% say there is a place for well-run private companies operating prisons.

Foreign House Buyers

• 32% support a ban on foreigners buying houses
• 20% oppose a ban
• 42% would support a ban if there is evidence foreign buyers are pushing prices up

NZ Flag

• 53% against change in principle
• 23% support change in principle
• 24% depends on alternative designs

TPP

• 30% oppose TPP
• 20% support TPP
• 45% not know enough to have a view

Iraq

• 59% support the deployment of troops to do training (+2%)
• 34% oppose