Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 22 July to 3 August 2016

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

• National 45.1% (-1.9%)
• Labour 32.7% (+1.4%)
• Green 11.5% (+0.4%)
• NZ First 8.1% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.3% (+0.3%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• ACT 0.2% (-0.2%)
• Mana 0.4% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 0.5% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 55
• Labour 39
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/122 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 36.7% (nc)
• Andrew Little 10.5% (+1.6%)
• Winston Peters 10.9% (-1.2%)

Housing

• 22% (+2%) think Government is doing enough to control the housing market
• 75% (-1%)  do not
• 56% support Labour’s Kiwibuild (100,000 new houses in 10 years) policy
• 41% do not

Immigration

• 60% think the Government should let fewer immigrants in
• 37% do not

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 864 of whom 799 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.5%

Dates: early July to 17 June 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 53.0% (+10.0%)
• Labour 25.5% (-2.5%)
• Green 11.5% (-3.0%)
• NZ First 7.0% (-2.0%)
• Maori 0.5% (-1.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 31
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/121 – five more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 = 45/121 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

• Right 57.5% (+3.0%)
• Wrong 30.5% (-3.5%)
• Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,509 voters of whom 1,245 have a party preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 28 May to 2 June 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 48.0% (-2%)
• Labour 29.0% (+1%)
• Green 12.0% (+2.0%)
• NZ First 9.0% (nc)
• Maori 0.7% (-0.4)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.3% (-0.4%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.7% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 35
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 11
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Greens 15 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/122

On this poll National could govern with NZ First or Labour could govern with Greens, NZ First and Maori Party.

Preferred PM

• John Key 39.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 7% (nc)
• Winston Peters 12% (+2%)
• Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (-1%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: May 2016

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

• National 47.0% (+0.3%)
• Labour 31.3% (-1.0%)
• Green 11.1% (+0.9%)
• NZ First 7.8% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.0% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.4% (-0.4%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.0% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 38
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 36.7% (-1.6%)
• Andrew Little 8.9% (-1.5%)
• Winston Peters 12.1% (+2.8%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.6% (-1.6%)

Housing

• 20% think Government is doing enough to control the housing market
• 76% do not
• 61% think foreign buyers are driving up house prices

US Ships

• 75% support a visit by a US Navy ship
• 20% opposed

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 843 of whom 784 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early April to 17 April 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 42.5% (-3.5%)
• Labour 26.0% (-2.0%)
• Green 14.5% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 12.5% (+3.5%)
• Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
• Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
• Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 51
• Labour 32
• Green 18
• ACT 2
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 15
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 51 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 32 + Greens 18 = 50/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 15 + Maori 2 = 17/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 57.5% (-3.5%)
• Wrong 30.5% (+1.5%)
• Can’t Say 12.0% (+2.0%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 voters of whom 841 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 2 to 6 April 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 50.0% (+3%)
• Labour 28.0% (-4%)
• Green 10.0% (+2.0%)
• NZ First 9.0% (-1%)
• Maori 1.1% (nc)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
• Conservative 0.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 34
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 11
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 11 = 45/121 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 39.0% (-1)
• Andrew Little 7.0% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 10.0% (+1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

• Better 43% (+5%)
• Worse 33% (-6%)
• Same 24% (+1%)

Sugar Tax

• 66% support a tax on soda drinks with sugar
• 29% oppose

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

• Support 32%
• Oppose 49%

Medical Marijuana (cannabis)

• Support 73%
• Oppose 21%

Immigration Levels

• More migrants 18%
• Fewer migrants 27%
• About right level 51%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,004 of whom 855 had a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 13 to 17 February 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (nc)
• Labour 32.0% (+1%)
• Green 8.0% (-4.0%)
• NZ First 10.0% (+1%)
• Maori 1.0% (+0.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.3% (+0.1%)
• Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 0.6% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 39
• Green 10
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 12
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 10 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 9.0% (+1%)
• Winston Peters 9.0% (+1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (-1%)

NZ Flag

• Current Flag 63%
• Alternative Flag 26%

Police Pursuits

• Police should be able to pursue any vehicle that fails to stop 68%
• NZ law should be changed 26%

TPP

• May impact our sovereignty and I’m concerned 44%
• May impact our sovereignty and not a big concern 22%
• Not much impact of sovereignty 24%

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 896 of whom 833 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early February to 14 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 48.5% (+1.5%)
• Labour 27.0% (-0.5%)
• Green 14.5% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
• Maori 1.0% (-2.0%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 33
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 11
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll National could form a CR Government with either ACT or United Future.

Country Direction

• Right 56.5% (-3.0%)
• Wrong 28.5% (+0.5%)
• Can’t Say 15.0% (+2.5%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early January to 17 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 47.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 27.5% (-1.0%)
• Green 14.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 6.5% (+0.5%)
• Maori 3.0% (+1.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 33
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• NZ First8
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 = 50/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 4 = 12/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power as both CR and CL would need them to form a Government. The CL would need NZ First also.

Country Direction

• Right 59.5% (nc)
• Wrong 28.0% (-3.0)
• Can’t Say 12.5% (+3.0%)

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 04 to 14 December 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 51.3% (+0.5%)
• Labour 31.1% (+0.1%)
• Green 8.2% (-1.0%)
• NZ First 5.7% (-1.2%)
• Maori 2.1% (+1.9%)
• United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
• ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Conservative 0.0% (-0.6%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 37
• Green 10
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 10 = 47/121 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 65.2% (+1.5%)
• Andrew Little 16.2% (+2.9%)
• Winston Peters 7.9% (-3.7%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.8% (-1.1%)

TPP

• 27% support (+5%)
• 26% oppose (-6%)
• 46% no view (nc)

Iraq

• Support deployment 63% (+4%)
• Oppose deployment 30% (-4%)

Obesity

• 53% say school tuck shops should ban unhealthy food
• 44% disagree

US Ship Visits

• 50% say a US visit would be positive
• 29% don’t want a visit
• 16% say a visit would be a triumph for NZ nuclear free policy