Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Tauranga Colmar Brunton One News August 2008 Poll

August 10, 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone of Tauranga voters

Poll Size: 519 voters (4.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 6 August to 9 August 2008

Client: One News

Report: None yet

Candidate Support

  • Simon Bridges, National 48%
  • Winston Peters, NZ First 28%
  • Anne Pankhurst, Labour 15%

Party Support

  • National 55%
  • Labour 31%
  • NZ First 6%
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Te Tai Tonga Marae Digipoll August 2008

August 10, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Te Tai Tonga voters

Poll Size: 380 voters (5.1% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Unknown but possibly 22 July to 4 August 2008

Client: Marae

Report: None yet

Candidate Support

  • Mahara Okeroa, Labour 39.4%
  • Rahui Katene, Maori Party 42.4%
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Roy Morgan Poll late July 2008

August 8, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 834 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 July to 27 July 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+2.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+2.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Other 1.0% (+1.0%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 57
  • Labour 39
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Green 10
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 3
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Country Direction
  • Right 38.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 47.0% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+0.5%)
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Marae-Digipoll Hauraki-Waikato August 2008 Poll

August 8, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Ikaroa-Rawhiti voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 7 July to 21 July 2008

Client: Marae

Report: None yet

Party Support

  • Maori Party 44.9%
  • Labour 33.4%
  • National 12.0%

Candidate Support

  • Nanaia Mahuta, Labour 45.3%
  • Angeline Greensill, Maori Party 41.4%

Most Liked MP

  • Pita Sharples, Labour Maori Party 25.5%
  • Nanaia Mahuta, Labour 13.4%
  • Winston Peters, NZ First, 10.6%
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NZ Herald DigiPoll July 2008

July 29, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 770 respondents, 660 decided respondents (3.6% and 3.9% maximum margins of error)

Dates: Not stated but normally over three weeks, and probably up until 26 July 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story and breakdowns here and graphs here.

Party Support

  • National 55.4% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 30.8% (-1.6%)
  • Progressive – 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.1% (+0.8%)
  • Green 5.5% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.9% (+0.8%)
  • Maori – 2.6% (+0.8%)
  • ACT – 0.2% (-0.6%)
14.3% of respondents were undecided
Projected Seats
  • National 70
  • Labour 39
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 7
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 47.1% (+1.1%)
  • Clark 44.0% (-1.0%)
  • Peters 4.9%

Most influential issue

  • Economy 22.9%
  • Law & Order 17.2%
  • Tax Cuts 16.5%
  • Hospital Waiting Lists 13.8%
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Rounding Errors

July 23, 2008

Dean Knight has a post on how rounding party vote figures to 0 or 1 decimal point can lead to the wrong allocation of seats. He queried the Colmar Brunton seat projections as he (and I) got different putting their results into the Electoral Commission calculator.

They use the raw numbers (with no rounding) in their calculations, so their projections are accurate.

It poses a small issue for me. I always prefer to calculate the seat projections myself using the official calculator, rather than trust what the media report. However as I only get the rounded poll results, then the projections may differ by a seat for some parties.

In future I will use the Colmar Brunton projections, as they have shown to Dean they definitely do it the right way, but will still calculate my own for other polls.

One reason I do my own calculations is I don’t assume the electorate seats will be the same as in 2005, but instead go off any public electorate polls to feed into assumptions on electorate seats won. Hence am projectiing Maori Party wins six seats, not four seats as Marae/Digipoll has shown them ahead in six.

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One News/Colmar Brunton Poll July 2008

July 21, 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Not stated but probably up until 18 July 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (+6.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.4% (-0.8%)
  • Green 6.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.7% (-2.7%)
  • ACT 1.2% (+0.4%)
Projected Seats
  • National 65
  • Labour 44
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 8
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 126
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 38.0% (nc)
  • Clark 31.0% (+3.0%)
  • Peters 4.0% (nc)
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TV3/TNS Poll July 2008

July 21, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Not stated but usually 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Not stated but probably up until 18 July 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.1%)
  • Green 7.0% (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 9
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 32.0% (-3.0%)
  • Clark 28.0% (-1.0%)
  • Peters 6.0% (nc)
  • English 3.0% (+2.0%)
Personal Attacks
69% of respondents thought Helen Clark’s attack on John Key being on holiday was a personal attack, 16% said it was based on policy and 15% did not know.
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Marae Ikaroa-Rawhiti Poll July 2008

July 21, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Ikaroa-Rawhiti voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Around two and a half weeks to 14 July 2008

Client: Marae

Report: None yet

Candidate Support

The poll was reported in two parts. Up until 8 July 2008 Derek Fox (Maori Party) had 50.5% to 41.9% for Parekura Horomia (Labour).
On 8 July stories of domestic violence in the past of Derek Fox were published. Responses after that date were 47.1% for Fox and 45.6% for Horomia.
Note that if half the sample were done before and after 8 July, the margin of error for each part is 7.1%.
The last Marae-Digipoll in 2007 in Ikaroa-Rawhiti had the Maori Party candidate (not selected at that stage) at 54% and the Labour Party candidate (Horomia) at 31%, so the race has tightened since then regardless of the domestic violence revelations.
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Fairfax July 2008 Poll

July 19, 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,049 total voters, 913 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 9 to 15 July 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff and Stuff

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (+5.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 65
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 6
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 39.0% (-4.0%)
  • Clark 32.0 (+2.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (+1.0%)
Leader Strengths
  • Better in a crisis – Clark 53%, Key 34%
  • Better on world stage – Clark higher
  • Better on law and order – Key 49%, Clark 37%
  • More capabale at managing economy – Key 49%, Clark 38%
  • Strong – Clark 70%, Key 41%
  • Honest – both at 40%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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