Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan poll early April 2009

April 10, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 910 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 23 March to 05 April 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 29.0% (nc)
  • Green 9.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 4.0% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 4.0% (+2.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 36
  • Green 11
  • ACT 5
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 5 + United Future 1 = 68/121 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 = 48/121 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (-2.5%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+0.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll Mid March 2009

March 21, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 900 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 March to 15 March 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 54.5% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 29.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 36
  • Green 10
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 71/123 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 47/122 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (nc)
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Roy Morgan Poll late February 2009

March 7, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 908 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 16 February to 1 March 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (+7.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-6.0%)
  • Green 8.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 32
  • Green 11
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 73/122 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 = 44/122 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 69.0% (+5.5%)
  • Wrong 18.5% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-3.5%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll February 2009

March 7, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 total voters, 877  likely voters (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 February to 19 February 2009

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (+9.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-7.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-3.0%)
  • ACT 3.1% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 3.4% (+2.1%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.4% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 1.4% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 35
  • Green 7
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 70 = 70/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 5 = 48/122 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party.

Economic Outlook

  • 37% economy over next 12 months will be better (-4.0%)
  • 21% same (+2.0%)
  • 42% worse (+2.0)
Jobs
  • 22% worried they could close their job
  • 66% not worried
  • 8% do not have a job
  • 2% have lost their jobs
  • 2% don’t know
Labour Leadership
  • 53% could name Phil Goff as Labour Leader
  • 13% could name Annette King as Deputy Leader of Labour
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Roy Morgan late January 2009

February 10, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 982 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 19 January to 1 February 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • Other 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 11
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 60 + ACT 4 = 64/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 39 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 5 = 56/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll January 2009

January 31, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,922 (2.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 January to 18 January 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+1.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • Other 0.5% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 59 + ACT 4 = 63/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 5 = 57/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.0% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 19.0% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-3.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll mid December 2008

December 19, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 948 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 01 December to 14 December 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 4.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • Other 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 59 + ACT 5 = 64/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 39 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 5 = 57/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 17.0% (+2.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late November 2008

December 7, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 908 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 16 November to 30 November 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 32.5% (-2.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 3.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 4.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 42
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 56 + ACT 5 + United Future = 62/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 5 = 60/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.0% (+14.5%)
  • Wrong 19.0% (-16.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.5%)
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Roy Morgan early November 2008

November 8, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1038 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 October to 02 November 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 42.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 34.5% (+2.5%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (nc)
  • Maori 2.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 4.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Other 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 44
  • Green 13
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 54 + ACT 5 + United Future 1 + Maori 4 = 64/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 13 + Maori 4 = 62/122 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 51.5% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 35.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+1.0%)
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Fairfax Poll November 2008

November 7, 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: unclear, assumed 1000

Dates: estimated up until 2 Nov 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0%  (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 4.0% (+3.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 39
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 61 = 61/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 49 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 4 = 54/121 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 61 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United Future would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48.0% (+5.0%)
  • Helen Clark 35.0% (nc)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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