Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan Poll late November 2008

December 7, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 908 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 16 November to 30 November 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 32.5% (-2.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 3.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 4.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 42
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 56 + ACT 5 + United Future = 62/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 5 = 60/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.0% (+14.5%)
  • Wrong 19.0% (-16.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.5%)
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Roy Morgan early November 2008

November 8, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1038 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 October to 02 November 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 42.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 34.5% (+2.5%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (nc)
  • Maori 2.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 4.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Other 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 44
  • Green 13
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 54 + ACT 5 + United Future 1 + Maori 4 = 64/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 13 + Maori 4 = 62/122 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 51.5% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 35.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+1.0%)
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Fairfax Poll November 2008

November 7, 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: unclear, assumed 1000

Dates: estimated up until 2 Nov 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0%  (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 4.0% (+3.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 39
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 61 = 61/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 49 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 4 = 54/121 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 61 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United Future would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48.0% (+5.0%)
  • Helen Clark 35.0% (nc)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll November 2008

November 6, 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 total voters (3.2% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 18 October to 23 October 2008

Client: One News

Report: Not found

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (nc)
  • Labour 35.0% (nc)
  • Green 9.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 1.3% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 0%
  • ACT 2.5% (-0.4%)
  • Progressive 0%

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 43
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 58 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 4 = 60/122 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party.

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Three News TNS Poll November 2008

November 6, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: not known yet

Client: TV3

Report: 

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+0.0%)
  • Labour 33.1% (-4.3%)
  • Green 9.0% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 3.4% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 2.7% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.2% (nc)
  • ACT 2.8% (+1.1%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 42
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 59 + ACT 4 = 63/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 4  = 59/123 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 36.4% (+2.8%)
  • Clark 34.2% (+0.6%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 26 October 2008

November 3, 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 total voters (3.2% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 18 October to 23 October 2008

Client: One News

Report: Not found

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (+0.9%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.9%)
  • United Future 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 2.0% (-0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 44
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 59 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 6 = 61/123 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party.

Preferred PM

  • Key 38.0% (-2.0%)
  • Clark 37.0% (+3.0%)
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Tauranga One News Colmar Brunton Poll October 2008

November 2, 2008

One News reports a special poll done in Tauranga in late October. Findings are:

Electorate Vote

  • Simon Bridges, National 54% (+6%)
  • Winston Peters, NZ First  28% (nc)
  • Larry Baldock, Kiwi Party 7% (+3%)
  • Anne Pankhurst, Labour 5% (-10%)

They also reported that on the party vote, NZ First was at only 6%, half the 13% they got in the 2005 election

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Palmerston North Poll October 2008

November 2, 2008

The Manawatu Standard has published a poll done by Versus Research in Palmerston North.

Their findings are:

  • Party Vote – National 36% to Labour 33%
  • Electorate Vote – Malcolm Plimmer (National) 37% to Iain Lees-Galloway (Labour) 34%
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Ikaroa-Rawhiti Marae Digipoll October 2008

November 2, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Ikaroa-Rawhiti voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 October to 28 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 45.5%
  • Maori Party 39.2%
  • NZ First 4.9%
  • National 3.1%
  • Green 3.9%

Candidate Support

  • Parekura Horomia, Labour 49.8%
  • Derek Fox, Maori Party 44.4%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 50.8%
  • Winston Peters 6.0%
  • Pita Sharples 9.1%
  • John Key 4.6%
  • Tariana Turia 4.1%
Country Direction
  • Right 64.0%
  • No 23.7%
  • Don’t Know 12.3%
Parekura Horomia Performance
  • Very Satisfied 19.4%
  • Satisfied 53.9%
  • Not Satisfied 18.5%
  • Don’t Know 8.3%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Parekura Horomia 30.1%
  • Pita Sharples 20.4%
  • Hone Harawira 3.7%
  • Tariana Turia 11.1%
  • Winston Peters 7.1%
Most important issue
  • Maori/Treaty 15.6%
  • Education 19.0%
  • Law & Order 8.3%
  • Health 12.9%
  • Family Issues 6.5%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 83.4% support, 12.1% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 20.8% support, 73.1% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 15.4%
  • Maori first 67.0%
  • Both 17.4%
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Nelson Poll

November 2, 2008

The Nelson Mail has done a poll of 500 voters in the Nelson electorate.

Party Vote

  • National, 40.4%
  • Labour 43.3%
  • Greens 10.1%
  • NZ First 2.6%
  • United Future 1.0%
  • Maori Party 1.0%

Electorate Vote

  • Nick Smith, National 65.8%
  • Maryan Street, Labour 29.8%
  • Diana Mellor, Greens 4.2%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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