Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Te Tai Hauauru poll

August 30, 2017

Newshub reports on a Reid Research poll:

Party Vote

  • Labour 41.8% (-0.4%)
  • Maori Party 24.0% (+6.4%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (-0.8%)
  • Greens 8.1% (-3.8%)
  • National 11.2% (+4.1%)

Electorate Vote

  • Adrian Rurawhe (L) 39.0% (-2.3%)
  • Howie Tamati (M) 52.0% (+18.6%)

The changes are from the election result.

Ikaroa-Rawhiti poll

August 30, 2017

Newshub reports on a Reid Research poll:

Party Vote

  • Labour 50.4% (+2.3%)
  • Maori Party 21.1% (+8.7%)
  • NZ First 12.0% (+0.6%)
  • Greens 7.5% (-3.9%)
  • National 5.9% (+0.4%)

Electorate Vote

  • Meka Whaitiri (L) 55.0% (+8.7%)
  • Marama Fox (M) 39.0% (+20.7%)

The changes are from the election result.

From Colmar Brunton:

Party Vote

  • National 46%
  • Labour 35%
  • Greens 12%
  • NZ First 4%
  • TOP 1.8%
  • United Future 0.5%
  • Maori 0.4%
  • ACT 0.3%

Electorate Vote

  • Greg O’Connor 48%
  • Peter Dunne 34%
  • Brett Hudson 14%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom 834 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 12 August to 16 August 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 37.0% (+13.0%)
  • Green 4.3.0% (-10.7%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.1% (+0.6%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
  • Opportunities 2.1% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 49
  • Green 0
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu going to Labour.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 = 58/121 – three fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 0 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 30.0% (+2%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 30% (+24%)
  • Winston Peters 7% (-3%)
Economy
  • Better 55% (+7%)
  • Same 31% (+2%)
  • Worse 14% (-8%)
Water Tax
  • Support 59%
  • Oppose 32%

Increase tax rate for those earning over $150,000

  • Support 63%
  • Oppose 30%

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  1 to 8 August 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 44.4% (-0.8%)
  • Labour 33.1% (+9.0%)
  • Green 8.3% (-4.7%)
  • NZ First 9.2% (-3.8%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • Opportunities 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 10 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 27.7% (+1.9%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 26.3% (+17.6%)
  • Winston Peters 10.0% (-1.9%)

 

Leader Approval

  • Bill English – 51.3% (+0.7%) well and 23.2% (-1.0%) poorly for a net +28.1% (+1.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern – 51.6%(+22.0% from Little)) well and 13.3% (-32.8%) poorly for a net +38.3% (+52.8%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  June 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 45.2% (-2.2%)
  • Labour 24.1% (-2.3%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 13.0% (+3.6%)
  • Maori 1.2% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.4%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Opportunities 2.0% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 30
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 16
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 16 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 16 + Maori 1 = 17/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 25.8% (-0.4%)
  • Andrew Little 7.1% (+0.1%)
  • Winston Peters 11.9% (+2.2%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 8.7% (+2.1%)

Leader Approval

  • Bill English – 50.6% (-8.6%) well and 24.2% (+7.5%) poorly for a net +26.4% (-16.1%)
  • Andrew Little – 29.6% (-4.7%) well and 46.1% (+5.4%) poorly for a net -16.5% (-11.1%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 of whom 817 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 29 May to 11 June 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (+3.5%)
  • Labour 25.5% (-3.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 9.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 32
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 17 = 49/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5 (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 27.0% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.0%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  June 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 47.4% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 26.4% (-4.4%)
  • Green 12.5% (+1.3%)
  • NZ First 9.4% (+1.8%)
  • Maori 0.7% (nc)
  • United Future 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.9% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.8% (+0.4%)
  • Opportunities 0.8% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 33
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 = 48/121 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.2% (+1.2%)
  • Andrew Little 7.0% (-1.3%)
  • Winston Peters 9.7% (+0.8%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6.6% (-3.9%)

Leader Approval

  • Andrew Little -6% (-5.5%)
  • Bill English +25% (-5%)

2017 Budget Family Incomes Package

  • Support 67%
  • Oppose 26%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 voters

Undecideds:

Dates: 18 March to 22 March 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (nc)
  • Labour 30.0% (nc)
  • Green 11.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 4.0% (+3.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.4%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.6%)
  • Conservative 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Opportunities 0.4% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 36
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/122 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 14 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 5 = 14/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.0% (-5%)
  • Andrew Little 7% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 9% (+1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 9% (+5%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 46% (-2%)
  • Same 28% (-2%)
  • Worse 26% (+4%)

Superannuation

  • Support increase in eligibility age to 67 – 52%
  • Opposed 40%

Freedom Camping

  • 69% think more needs to be done to control behaviour of freedom campers
  • 23% disagree

Vaccinations

  • 48% support banning unvaccinated children from early childhood centres
  • 43% disagree

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 847 of whom 783 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.5%

Dates: 27 February to 12 March 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 29.5% (+3.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 36
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/120 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 18 = 54/120 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 25.5% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (nc)
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