Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Te Karere Digipoll January 2010

February 1, 2010

Digipoll did a poll of 1,002 Maori voters between the 6th and 27th of January 2010.  685 (68%) were from the Maori Roll and 317 (32%) from the General Roll.

For each result, I give the overall result, then the response for those on the Maori roll and then General Roll.

Party Vote

  • Maori Party 38.3%, 51.2%, 11.30%
  • Labour 27.9%, 31.6%, 51.0%
  • National 16.9%, 11.4%, 28.4%l
  • Greens 3.3%, 3.3%, 3.4%

Preferred PM

  • Key 30.5%, 27.9%, 36.0%
  • Sharples 11.8%, 14.9%, 5.2%
  • Peters 7.0%, 6.0%, 9.2%
  • Turia 4.9%, 6.8%, 1.5%
  • Goff 4.6%, 3.9%, 6.5%
  • Clark 3.8%, 3.7%, 4.0%
  • Harawira 3.0%, 4.5%, 0.3%
  • Jones 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.5%

Does John Key/Phil Goff provide good leadership on Maori issues?

  • John Key Yes – 46.7%, 49.5%, 42.5%
  • John Key No – 37.1%, 36.0%, 40.0%
  • Phil Goff Yes – 18.2%, 17.1%, 19.1%
  • Phil Goff No – 58.9%, 61.9%, 55.1%

Is Phil Goff best person to lead Labour (asked of Labour voters only)?

  • Yes 36.0%, 34.4%, 38.3%
  • No 48.1%, 49.0%, 37.7%
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Roy Morgan Poll early January 2010

February 1, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,758 (2.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 04 January to 17 January 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 48/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 68.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 21.0% (-4.0%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-2.0%)
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TV3 Poll December 2009

December 14, 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 893 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 December to 08 December 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 55.2% (-4.7%)
  • Labour 30.8% (+3.6%)
  • Green 7.8% (+0.9%)
  • ACT 1.8% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.7%  (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 38
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/125 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 49.9% (-5.9%)
  • Clark 6.1% (-2.1%)
  • Goff 8.0% (+3.3%)
  • Peters 2.1% (-0.9%

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 72.9% (-9.4%) doing well vs 12.3% (+5.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.6% (-14.5%)
  • Goff  – 32.2% (-2.0%) doing well vs 40.6% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -8.4% (-4.7%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • capable leader – Key by 41% (+1%)
  • good in a crisis – Key by 29% (nc)
  • sound judgement – Key by 23% (-5%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 14% (+8%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • more style than substance – Key by 12% (+4%)
  • talk down to people – Goff by 8% (+1%)
  • narrow minded – Goff by 7% (-3%)
  • inflexible – Goff by 2% (-7%)
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Roy Morgan late November 2009

December 14, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 849 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 16 November to 29 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 7.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 38
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/123 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 48/123 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.0% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.0%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll November 2009

December 6, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 999 adults, of whom 822 are decided

Dates: 21 November to 25 November 2009

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.7%)
  • ACT 2.2% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.4% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.6% (+0.4%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 38
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 70/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 47/122 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 68% economy over next 12 months will be better (-2.0%)
  • 16% same (nc)
  • 16% worse (+3.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 54% (+4.0%)
  • Phil Goff 5% (-4%)
  • Helen Clark 3% (-1%)
MMP
  • Retain 54% (+7% over June 2008)
  • Not Retain 36% (-7%)
  • Don’t Know 10% (nc)
Preferred Electoral System
  • MMP 39%
  • FPP 33%
  • STV 12%
  • SM 2%
  • Don’t Know 14%
Hone Harawira
  • 77% say his comments were racist
  • 16% say they were not
  • 6% don’t know
  • 23% say he should remain an MP
  • 69% say he should go
  • 9% don’t know
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Roy Morgan mid November 2009

December 6, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 November to 15 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.5% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 50/123 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 64.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 22.5% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (nc)
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Roy Morgan early November 2009

December 6, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 951 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 19 October to 01 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 55.5% (+2.5%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 36
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 70/121 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 46/121 – 15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 20.5% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+2.0%)
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Marae Digipoll November 2009

November 9, 2009

Marae has published the results of a poll done by Digipoll between 18 October and 3 November 2009. It is of 1,002 voters of Maori descent – 700 on the Maori Roll, and 302 on the General Roll.

Party Vote

Maori Party 48%
Labour 26%
National 20%

Electorate Vote (Maori roll only)

Maori Party 57%
Labour 33%
National 7%

Preferred PM

John Key 30%
Helen Clark 11%
Pita Sharples 9%
Tariana Turia 6%
Phil Goff 4%
Winston Peters 4%

PM Approval

Approve 55%
Disapprove 36%

Most Favoured Maori MP

Pita Sharples   31.9%
Tariana Turia   16.7%
Hone Harawira  8.2%
Te Ururoa Flavell  3.3%
Parekura Horomia  3.2%

Most Effective Maori MP

Pita Sharples   31.9%
Tariana Turia   16.7%
Hone Harawira  8.2%
Te Ururoa Flavell  3.3%
Parekura Horomia  3.2%

Government Approval

Approve 45%
Disapprove 45%

Direction

Right 40%
Wrong 44%

Maori Party Supporters

68% support decision to join the Government and think they made right decision
Only 33% support the arrangement where Maori Party Ministers sit outside Cabinet

Top Issues

Jobs / Unemployment 22.5%
Health   12.6%
Education   10.5%
Family / Whanau  8.9%
Cost of Living  8.7%
Economy   5.6%
Housing   4.1%
Child Care  3.9%
Law and Order  3.7%
Environmental Issues 1.8%
Treaty Claims  1.2%

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NZ Herald Digipoll October 2009

October 31, 2009

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents (3.6% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 October to 28 October 2009

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald pdf

Party Support

  • National 57.3% (+9.4%)
  • Labour 32.4% (-4.0%)
  • Green 4.6% (-1.2%)
  • NZ First 0.9% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 2.8% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-0.9%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 73
  • Labour 42
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 73 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 75/123 – 13 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 43/123 -19 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.3% (+9.1%)
  • Clark 10.6% (-31.0%)
  • Goff 6.2% (+6.2%)
  • Peters 2.1% (-2.9%)

Job Approval

  • Bill English 60.8% good or better, 31.9% not good or poor
  • Phil Goff 41.3% good or better, 42.0% not good or poor
Direction
  • Right 61.2%
  • Wrong 27.5%
Financial Crisis Handling by Govt
  • 77.6% say good or better
  • 20.3% not very good or poor
Personal Situation compared to a year ago
  • 28.7% better off
  • 32.6% no change
  • 37.1% worse off
Most effective Minister
  • Bill English 16.2%
  • Paula Bennett 5.5%
  • Judith Collins 3.1%
  • Tony Ryall 2.4%
  • Nick Smith 2.4%
  • Simon Power 2.0%

Note this question appears to be unprompted, and name recognition appears to be a major factor.

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Roy Morgan Poll mid October 2009

October 26, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 951 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 05 October to 18 October 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 47/121 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (-4.5%)
  • Wrong 21.5% (+5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.0% (-0.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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