Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan mid November 2009

December 6, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 November to 15 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.5% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 50/123 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 64.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 22.5% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (nc)
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Roy Morgan early November 2009

December 6, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 951 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 19 October to 01 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 55.5% (+2.5%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 36
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 70/121 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 46/121 – 15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 20.5% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+2.0%)
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Marae Digipoll November 2009

November 9, 2009

Marae has published the results of a poll done by Digipoll between 18 October and 3 November 2009. It is of 1,002 voters of Maori descent – 700 on the Maori Roll, and 302 on the General Roll.

Party Vote

Maori Party 48%
Labour 26%
National 20%

Electorate Vote (Maori roll only)

Maori Party 57%
Labour 33%
National 7%

Preferred PM

John Key 30%
Helen Clark 11%
Pita Sharples 9%
Tariana Turia 6%
Phil Goff 4%
Winston Peters 4%

PM Approval

Approve 55%
Disapprove 36%

Most Favoured Maori MP

Pita Sharples   31.9%
Tariana Turia   16.7%
Hone Harawira  8.2%
Te Ururoa Flavell  3.3%
Parekura Horomia  3.2%

Most Effective Maori MP

Pita Sharples   31.9%
Tariana Turia   16.7%
Hone Harawira  8.2%
Te Ururoa Flavell  3.3%
Parekura Horomia  3.2%

Government Approval

Approve 45%
Disapprove 45%

Direction

Right 40%
Wrong 44%

Maori Party Supporters

68% support decision to join the Government and think they made right decision
Only 33% support the arrangement where Maori Party Ministers sit outside Cabinet

Top Issues

Jobs / Unemployment 22.5%
Health   12.6%
Education   10.5%
Family / Whanau  8.9%
Cost of Living  8.7%
Economy   5.6%
Housing   4.1%
Child Care  3.9%
Law and Order  3.7%
Environmental Issues 1.8%
Treaty Claims  1.2%

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NZ Herald Digipoll October 2009

October 31, 2009

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents (3.6% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 October to 28 October 2009

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald pdf

Party Support

  • National 57.3% (+9.4%)
  • Labour 32.4% (-4.0%)
  • Green 4.6% (-1.2%)
  • NZ First 0.9% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 2.8% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-0.9%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 73
  • Labour 42
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 73 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 75/123 – 13 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 43/123 -19 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.3% (+9.1%)
  • Clark 10.6% (-31.0%)
  • Goff 6.2% (+6.2%)
  • Peters 2.1% (-2.9%)

Job Approval

  • Bill English 60.8% good or better, 31.9% not good or poor
  • Phil Goff 41.3% good or better, 42.0% not good or poor
Direction
  • Right 61.2%
  • Wrong 27.5%
Financial Crisis Handling by Govt
  • 77.6% say good or better
  • 20.3% not very good or poor
Personal Situation compared to a year ago
  • 28.7% better off
  • 32.6% no change
  • 37.1% worse off
Most effective Minister
  • Bill English 16.2%
  • Paula Bennett 5.5%
  • Judith Collins 3.1%
  • Tony Ryall 2.4%
  • Nick Smith 2.4%
  • Simon Power 2.0%

Note this question appears to be unprompted, and name recognition appears to be a major factor.

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Roy Morgan Poll mid October 2009

October 26, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 951 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 05 October to 18 October 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 47/121 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (-4.5%)
  • Wrong 21.5% (+5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.0% (-0.5%)
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TV3 Reid Research Poll October 2009

October 18, 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 917 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 October to 14 October 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 59.9% (+1.8%)
  • Labour 27.2% (-2.0%)
  • Green 6.9% (-0.6%)
  • ACT 1.7% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 2.4%  (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 74
  • Labour 33
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 74 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 77/124 – 14 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 42/124 -21 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.8% (+4.3%)
  • Clark 8.2% (+0.2%)
  • Goff 4.7% 6.5% (-1.8%)
  • Peters 3.0%

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 82.3% (+3.7%) doing well vs 7.2% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 75.1% (=5.1%)
  • Goff  – 34.2% (-0.2%) doing well vs 37.9% (-3.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -3.7% (+3.5%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • capable leader – Key by 40% (+8%)
  • good in a crisis – Key by 29% (+5%)
  • sound judgement – Key by 28% (+8%)
  • honest – Key by 29% (+16%)
  • down to earth – Key by 18% (+9%)
  • understands economic problems – Key by 30% (+8%)
  • has a lot of personality – Key by 46% (+19%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 6% (+4%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • more style than substance – Key by 8% (-2%)
  • talk down to people – Goff by 7% (-4%)
  • narrow minded – Goff by 10% (-2%)
  • inflexible – Goff by 9% (-2%)
  • inexperienced – Key by 19% (-3%)
  • out of touch  – Goff by 7% (+4%)

Economy

  • 54% said impact of recession has been what they expected
  • 30% say it was better than expected
  • 14% worse than expected
  • 2% don’t know
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Roy Morgan Poll early October 2009

October 12, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 854 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 21 September to 04 October 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 57.5% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-5.5%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 35
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 44/123 – 18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 72.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 16.5% (-8.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (+3.5%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2009

October 1, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 adults, of whom 837 are decided

Dates: 19 September to 24 September 2009

Client: One News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 4.3% (-2.7%)
  • ACT 3.2% (+2.2%)
  • Maori 2.7% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.7% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 42
  • Green 0
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 75/123 – 13 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 43/123 -19 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 70% economy over next 12 months will be better (+10.0%)
  • 16% same (-2.0%)
  • 13% worse (-9.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 50% (-1.0%)
  • Phil Goff 9% (+2%)
  • Helen Clark 4% (+1%)
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Roy Morgan Poll early September 2009

September 19, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 854 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 31 August to 13 September 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.5% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+4.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 51/123 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 8.0% (-4.5%)
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Roy Morgan late August 2009

September 14, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 860 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 17 August to 30 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 56.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-3.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 36
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/123 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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