Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan Poll mid June 2010

June 19, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 923, of whom 863 have a party preference

Dates: 31 May to 13 June 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 50.5% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 40
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – 3 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 12 = 52/121 – 9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.5% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.5% (+5.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late May 2010

June 4, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 902, of whom 852 have a party preference

Dates: 17 May to 30 May 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.5% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 9.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/121 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 12 = 49/121 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 26.0% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-1.5%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll May 2010

May 30, 2010

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,009 adults, 843 of whom had a party vote preference

Dates: 22 to 26 May 2010

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (nc)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.3%)
  • ACT 2.2% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.6% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.3%)
    Progressive 0.5% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.3% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 41
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT, United Future one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 66/121 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 9 = 50/121 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 56% economy over next 12 months will be better (-9.0%)
  • 18% same (+2.0%)
  • 26% worse (+7.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 46% (-2.0%)
  • Phil Goff 6% (-2%)
  • Helen Clark not yet known
2010 Budget
  • 37% say makes them better off, 53% say it does not
  • 61% say budget good for economy, 25% disagree
  • 50% say it was fair, and 41% disagree
Drinking Age
  • 74% want 20 and 24% 18
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NZ Herald Digipoll February 2010

February 13, 2010

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 600 respondents (4.1% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 29 January to 10 February 2010

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (-1.3%)
  • Labour 33.6% (+1.2%)
  • Green 4.6% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.7% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 2.8% (nc)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.8% (-0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.2% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 43
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 44/123 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 58.0% (+2.7%)
  • Clark 7.0% (-3.6%)
  • Goff 6.8% (+0.6%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late January 2010

February 13, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,758 (2.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 January to 31 January 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 40
  • Green 17
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 68/121 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 = 48/121 – 13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 71.0% (+2.5%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 9.0% (-1.5%)
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Te Karere Digipoll January 2010

February 1, 2010

Digipoll did a poll of 1,002 Maori voters between the 6th and 27th of January 2010.  685 (68%) were from the Maori Roll and 317 (32%) from the General Roll.

For each result, I give the overall result, then the response for those on the Maori roll and then General Roll.

Party Vote

  • Maori Party 38.3%, 51.2%, 11.30%
  • Labour 27.9%, 31.6%, 51.0%
  • National 16.9%, 11.4%, 28.4%l
  • Greens 3.3%, 3.3%, 3.4%

Preferred PM

  • Key 30.5%, 27.9%, 36.0%
  • Sharples 11.8%, 14.9%, 5.2%
  • Peters 7.0%, 6.0%, 9.2%
  • Turia 4.9%, 6.8%, 1.5%
  • Goff 4.6%, 3.9%, 6.5%
  • Clark 3.8%, 3.7%, 4.0%
  • Harawira 3.0%, 4.5%, 0.3%
  • Jones 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.5%

Does John Key/Phil Goff provide good leadership on Maori issues?

  • John Key Yes – 46.7%, 49.5%, 42.5%
  • John Key No – 37.1%, 36.0%, 40.0%
  • Phil Goff Yes – 18.2%, 17.1%, 19.1%
  • Phil Goff No – 58.9%, 61.9%, 55.1%

Is Phil Goff best person to lead Labour (asked of Labour voters only)?

  • Yes 36.0%, 34.4%, 38.3%
  • No 48.1%, 49.0%, 37.7%
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Roy Morgan Poll early January 2010

February 1, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,758 (2.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 04 January to 17 January 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 48/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 68.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 21.0% (-4.0%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-2.0%)
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TV3 Poll December 2009

December 14, 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 893 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 December to 08 December 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 55.2% (-4.7%)
  • Labour 30.8% (+3.6%)
  • Green 7.8% (+0.9%)
  • ACT 1.8% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.7%  (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 38
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/125 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 49.9% (-5.9%)
  • Clark 6.1% (-2.1%)
  • Goff 8.0% (+3.3%)
  • Peters 2.1% (-0.9%

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 72.9% (-9.4%) doing well vs 12.3% (+5.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.6% (-14.5%)
  • Goff  – 32.2% (-2.0%) doing well vs 40.6% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -8.4% (-4.7%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • capable leader – Key by 41% (+1%)
  • good in a crisis – Key by 29% (nc)
  • sound judgement – Key by 23% (-5%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 14% (+8%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • more style than substance – Key by 12% (+4%)
  • talk down to people – Goff by 8% (+1%)
  • narrow minded – Goff by 7% (-3%)
  • inflexible – Goff by 2% (-7%)
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Roy Morgan late November 2009

December 14, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 849 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 16 November to 29 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 7.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 38
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/123 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 48/123 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.0% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.0%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll November 2009

December 6, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 999 adults, of whom 822 are decided

Dates: 21 November to 25 November 2009

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.7%)
  • ACT 2.2% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.4% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.6% (+0.4%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 38
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 70/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 47/122 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 68% economy over next 12 months will be better (-2.0%)
  • 16% same (nc)
  • 16% worse (+3.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 54% (+4.0%)
  • Phil Goff 5% (-4%)
  • Helen Clark 3% (-1%)
MMP
  • Retain 54% (+7% over June 2008)
  • Not Retain 36% (-7%)
  • Don’t Know 10% (nc)
Preferred Electoral System
  • MMP 39%
  • FPP 33%
  • STV 12%
  • SM 2%
  • Don’t Know 14%
Hone Harawira
  • 77% say his comments were racist
  • 16% say they were not
  • 6% don’t know
  • 23% say he should remain an MP
  • 69% say he should go
  • 9% don’t know
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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