Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2010

September 27, 2010

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Around 1,000

Dates: Estimated 18 September to 23 September 2010

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+5.0%)
  • Labour 32.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.1% (-1.6%)
  • Maori 2.3% (nc)
  • United Future
  • Progressive
  • NZ First 2.4% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 39
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT, United Future one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 10 = 49/123 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 52% (+7%)
  • Phil Goff 8% (-1%)
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Roy Morgan Poll mid September 2010

September 27, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 895, of whom 846 have a party preference

Dates: 30 August to 12 September 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+1.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 43
  • Green 10
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – 3 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 10 = 53/124 – 10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 28.0% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-3.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late August 2010

September 9, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 893, of whom 835 have a party preference

Dates: 16 August to 29 August 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 32.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 8.5% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 3.0% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 41
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – 3 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 11 = 52/121 – 9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-3.5%)
  • Wrong 28.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 17.0% (+3.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll mid August 2010

September 9, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 898, of whom 835 have a party preference

Dates: 02 August to 15 August 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 33.5% (nc)
  • Green 7.5% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 3.5% (+1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 42
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 65/121 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 9 = 51/121 – 10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-0.5%)
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TV3 Reid Research Poll August 2010

August 16, 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 890 have a party preference, (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 August to 10 August 2010

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 54.5% (-0.8%)
  • Labour 30.6% (+0.1%)
  • Green 9.5% (+2.0%)
  • ACT 2.2% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 1.5%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 12 = 49/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 48.7% (-0.9%)
  • Clark 2.3% (-2.6%)
  • Goff 7.4% (+2.3%)
  • Peters 3.7% (+0.9%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 69.9% (+0.9%) doing well vs 15.9% (nc) doing poorly – net positive is 54.0% (+0.9%)
  • Goff  – 30.9% (+3.7%) doing well vs 43.9% (-1.5%) doing poorly – net positive is -13.0% (+5.2%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • capable leader – Key by 44% (+6%)
  • good in a crisis – Key by 29% (+7%)
  • sound judgement – Key by 21% (nc)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 6% (+1%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • more style than substance – Key by 13% (-1%)
  • talk down to people – Goff by 2% (-8%)
  • narrow minded – Goff by 6% (-3%)
  • inflexible – Goff by 7% (+2%)

Land sales to foreigners

  • 76% say tighten rules
  • 14% say leave as it is
  • 8% say relax the rules
Drink Driving
  • 35% say keep at 80
  • 36% say reduce to 50
  • 28% say reduce to zero
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll August 2010

August 16, 2010

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 adults, 864 of whom had a party vote preference

Dates: 31 July to 04 August 2010

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (nc)
  • Labour 35.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (nc)
  • ACT 2.7% (+1.1%)
  • Maori 2.3% (-1.3%)
  • United Future 0.4% (-0.1%)
    Progressive 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 44
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT, United Future one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 65/121 – 3 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 9 = 53/121 -9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 55% economy over next 12 months will be better (-1.0%)
  • 19% same (+1.0%)
  • 25% worse (-1.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 45% (-1.0%)
  • Phil Goff 9% (+3%)
  • Helen Clark 3% (nc)
Drink Drive Limit
  • 64% say Govt should have lowered to 0.05
  • 34% say should not have lowered
Extending 90 day trial periods
  • 60% support extending to all employers
  • 36% opposed
Chris Carter
  • 58% say he should resign from Parliament
  • 33% say he should not

Phil Goff

  • 24% say he can win the next election
  • 65% say he can not, including 39% of Labour voters
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Roy Morgan Poll late July 2010

August 16, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 912, of whom 839 have a party preference

Dates: 19 July to 01 August 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+2.0%)
  • Green 6.5% (-2.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.0% (-2.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 42
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/121 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 8 = 50/121 – 11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (-7.0%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+6.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+0.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll mid July 2010

August 16, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 912, of whom 839 have a party preference

Dates: 05 July to 18 July 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (+2.5%)
  • Green 9.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 40
  • Green 11
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 65/121 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 11 = 51/121 – 10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (-7.0%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+6.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+0.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late June 2010

July 9, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 849, of whom 798 have a party preference

Dates: 21 June to 04 July 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+2.5%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-4.0%)
  • Green 8.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 3.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.0% (+1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 36
  • Green 11
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 = 47/121 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 21.0% (-3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-1.5%)
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TV3 poll June 2010

June 20, 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 880 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 8 June to 15 June 2010

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 55.3% (+3.2%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-3.3%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 1.6% (nc)
  • Maori 1.9%  (nc)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.8% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 38
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/124 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 9 = 47/124 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 49.6% (+0.4%)
  • Clark 4.9% (+1.2%)
  • Goff 5.1% (-2.4%)
  • Peters ?

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 69.0% (+0.2%) doing well vs 15.9% (-0.5%) doing poorly – net positive is 53.1% (+0.7%)
  • Goff  – 27.2% (-6.9%) doing well vs 45.4% (+3.9%) doing poorly – net positive is -18.2% (-10.8%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 20% (-6%)
  • down to earth – Key by 12% (-5%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 23% (-2%)
  • has personality – Key by 46% (+4%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 5% (-9%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 13% (-2%)
  • out of touch – Key by 4% (+1%)
Asset Sales
  • 85% say Govt should not sell Kiwibank, 9% say sell
  • 53.5% believe National will try and sell Kiwibank if they win a second term, 29.5% think they won’t
  • 80% say no the sale of any state assets, with only 12% supporting sale
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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