Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

New Plymouth Poll June 2011

July 3, 2011

The Taranaki Daily News reports a poll for New Plymouth:

  • 462 responses out of 820 people polled
  • Electorate Vote: Jonathan Young 41.6%, Andrew Little 25.3%, Neither 13.6%, Not Sure 19.5%
  • Party Vote: National 46.1%,Labour 16.5%, Greens 5.6%
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Roy Morgan poll early June 2011

June 21, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 897, of whom 816 have a party preference

Dates: 30 May to 12 June 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-6.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 3.0% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 9
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 70/121 – 9 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (-2.0%)
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Native Affairs Baseline Te Tai Tokerau Poll June 2011

June 14, 2011

Polling Company: Baseline

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 508, of whom 439 have a party preference

Dates: 2 June to 9 June 2011

Client: Native Affairs, Maori TV

Report: Not online

By-Election Vote

  • Harawira, Mana – 41%
  • Davis, Labour – 40%
  • Tipene, Maori – 15%

Party Support

  • National 10%
  • Labour 36%
  • Green 6.%
  • ACT 0%
  • Maori 25%
  • NZ First 2%
  • Mana 21%

Coalition Partner (for those who chose Maori or Mana)

  • National 28%
  • Labour 57%

Desired Relationship of Electorate MP to main governing party

  • Work alongside 73%
  • Work separate to 16%

Was by-election justified?

  • Yes 445
  • No 56%

Candidate Impressions

  • Can be trusted – Davis 50% Harawira 38%
  • Deliver on promises – Davis 35% Harawira 38%
  • Knows local needs – Davis 43% Harawira 57%
  • Politically experienced – Davis 39% Harawira 54%
  • Capable leader – Davis 44% Harawira 43%
  • Good in a crisis – Davis 43% Harawira 37%
  • Lots of personality – Davis 26% Harawira 66%
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Roy Morgan Poll late May 2011

June 10, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 942, of whom 853 have a party preference

Dates: 16 May to 29 May 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 38.0% (+8.0%)
  • Green 6.5% (-3.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 45
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – 2 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 45 + Greens 8 + Mana 1 = 54/122 – 8 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 28.0% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 17.0% (+3.5%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll May 2011

May 29, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Around 1,000

Dates: to 21 to 25 May 2011

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.2%)
  • Maori 1.4% (-0.9%)
  • United Future ?
  • Mana 0.9%
  • NZ First 1.6% (-2.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 42
  • Green 7
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 7 + Mana 1= 50/123 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53% (-2%)
  • Phil Goff 8% (-3%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 48% (+10%)
  • Worse 33% (-12%)
Budget
  • 4% feel better off, 62% the same and 29% worse off
  • 42% support KiwiSaver changes, 50% opposed
  • 31% say Budget will improve economy, 41% no change and 20% will be negative for economy
Racism
  • 21% say NZ has a great deal of racism
  • 55% say some racism
  • 20% say only a little racism
  • 3% say no racism
Maori Rights
  • 45% say Maori have more rights than other New Zealanders
  • 48% say the same rights
  • 6% say less rights
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3 News Reid Research Poll May 2011

May 29, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 May to 26 May 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 32.8% (+5.7%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.2%)
  • ACT 2.2% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.6%  (-0.9%)
  • United Future 0.2%
  • Mana 0.5%
  • NZ First 2.4% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 41
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 8 + Mana 1 = 50/123 -12 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 48.2% (-4.2%)
  • Clark 4.5% (+2.0%)
  • Goff 7.6% (+0.8%)
  • Peters 4.0% (-0.4%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 68.6% (-7.2%) doing well vs 17.0% (+4.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 51.6% (-11.3%)
  • Goff  – 27.7% (+1.0%) doing well vs 47.3% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -19.6% (-3.0%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 22% (-3%)
  • down to earth – Key by 15% (-3%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 19% (-6%)
  • has personality – Key by 54% (+4%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-3%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 3% (+1%)
  • out of touch – Key by 8% (+2%)

KiwiSaver

  • 43% support changes to KiwiSaver
  • 42% against KiwiSaver change
  • 87% of people in KiwiSaver will remain, but 13% want to exit
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Roy Morgan Poll early May 2011

May 29, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 858, of whom 794 have a party preference

Dates: 02 May to 15 May 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 35
  • Green 12
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 70/122 – 8 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 48/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 30.0% (-4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+1.5%)
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Herald Digipoll May 2011

May 29, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 19 to 25 May 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald and NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 54.4% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 33.7% (-3.5%)
  • Green 5.5% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.7% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.7% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.0%

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 42
  • Green 7
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 7 + Mana 1 = 50/124 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 67.1% (+14.6%)
  • Goff 11.9% (+4.2%)
  • Peters 5.4% (+2.1%)
  • Clark 4.1% (-1.5%)

Leader Ratings

  • Phil Goff – 22.2% above average, 40.4% average, 33.05 below average

KiwiSaver

  • 40.0% approved of changes to KiwiSaver in Budget
  • 48..3% disapprove

Financial situation

  • 9.2% say their financial situation has improved
  • 50.1% say their financial situation is much the same

Asset Sales

  • 29.5% approved of partial SOE sales to raise $7b
  • 62.4% disapprove

Minor Parties

  • 11% believe a Don Brash-led Act Party in coalition with National would leave New Zealand better off
  • 47.3% believe a Don Brash-led Act Party in coalition with National would leave New Zealand worse off
  • 60% say Maori Party is a positive force for Maori voters

Superannuation

  • 52.3% think the age of eligibility for superannuation should be discussed now
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TV3 Poll early October 2010

October 16, 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 863 have a party preference, (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 27 September to 06 October 2010

Client: TV3

Report:

Party Support

  • National 53.8% (-0.7%)
  • Labour 32.6% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.6% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-1.3%)
  • Maori 2.4%  (+0.9%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.2% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 40
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 9 = 49/124 -13 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.6% (+1.9%)
  • Clark 3.7% (+1.4%)
  • Goff 8.8% (+1.4%)
  • Peters 3.4% (-0.3%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 75.9% (+6.0%) doing well vs 11.9% (-4.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.0% (+10.0%%)
  • Goff  – 34.2% (+3.3%) doing well vs 41.9% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -7.7% (+5.3%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 18% (-2%)
  • down to earth – Key by 13% (+1%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 26% (+3%)
  • has personality – Key by 46% (nc)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-2%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 3% (-10%)
  • out of touch – Key by 0% (-4%)

Auckland Mayoralty (500 sample)

  • 56% Brown
  • 34% Banks
Rodney Hide
  • 23% say he should stay as ACT leader
  • 35% say he should step down
  • 36% say he should resign from Parliament

Act Leadership

  • 30% want Heather Roy (of those who did not say Hide should stay)
  • 17% Roger Douglas
  • 11% John Boscawen
  • 42% None

 

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Roy Morgan Poll late September 2010

October 16, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 820, of whom 750 have a party preference

Dates: 20 September to 03 October 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (=1.0%)
  • Labour 36.5% (+2.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-2.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 45
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the exact minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 45 + Greens 10 = 55/124 – 7 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (-6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 16.5% (+2.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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