Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

3 News Reid Research Poll September 2011

October 2, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 22 September to 28 September 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 57.4% (+3.4%)
  • Labour 26.6% (-2.2%)
  • Green 9.8% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.6% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 0.8%  (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 1.9% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 33
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/124 – 12 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 46/124 -16 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 54.5% (+1.5%)
  • Goff 6.2% (-1.8%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 76.2% (+1.3%) doing well vs 11.5% (-3.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.7% (+4.3%)
  • Goff  – 26.8% (+0.7%) doing well vs 49.1% (-3.4%) doing poorly – net positive is -22.3% (+4.1%)

Feeling after three years

  • 24% say worse off from three years ago
  • 19% better off

Greens

  • 55% say Greens should accept a coalition deal with National if Key offers one
  • 30% say they should not
  • 60% of Green voters says Greens should accept and only 27% say no
  • 63% of National voters say Greens should accept and only 25% say no
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2011

October 2, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 858 had a party preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 24 to 28 September 2011

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (nc)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (+3.0%)
  • ACT 1.3% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.1% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.6% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.9% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 36
  • Green 11
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 48/122 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 59% (+2%)
  • Phil Goff 8% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 2% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 45% (-4%)
  • Worse 35% (+5%)
  • Same 20% (nc)

NZ doing good job of Rugby World Cup Hosting

  • Yes 90%
  • No 5%

Blame for RWC Opening Night Issues

  • The Government 14%
  • The Auckland Council 65%
  • Neither 6%
  • Other 8%

Knowledge of Date of General Election

  • End of this year 77%
  • Next year 11%
  • Not announced yet 8%
  • Unsure 4%

What outcome matters more

  • Rugby World Cup 30%
  • General Election 66%
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Marae Digipoll September 2011

October 2, 2011

Marae Digipoll have done a poll of 1,000 Maori votes. 655 were from the Maori roll and 345 from the general roll.

The margin of errors are 3.2%, 3.9% and 5.4% respectively. The average no of respondents per Maori electorate is 94 which has a margin of error of 10.4%.

Party Vote – All Maori voters

  • Labour 38.4%
  • Maori 22.2%
  • National 16.4%
  • Mana 8.5%
  • Green 6.5%
  • NZ First 5.1%
  • ACT 1.0%

Party Vote – General roll Maori voters

  • Labour 43.5%
  • Maori 11.7%
  • National 22.4%
  • Mana 1.6%
  • Green 8.1%
  • NZ First 7.1%
  • ACT 2.9%

Party Vote – Maori roll Maori voters (2008 result in brackets)

  • Labour 35.7% (50.1%)
  • Maori 27.7% (28.9%)
  • National 13.2% (7.4%)
  • Mana 12.0%
  • Green 5.6% (3.9%)
  • NZ First 4.1% (6.1%)
  • ACT 0.0% (0.5%)

Electorate Vote (all 7 electorates)

  • Maori 37.5%
  • Labour 35.1%
  • Mana 13.8%
  • National 5.6%
  • Green 2.5%
  • NZ First 2.5%

Te Tai Tokerau

  • Labour 30.2%
  • Mana 28.6%
  • Maori 22.2%

Tamaki Makaurau

  • Maori 46.1%
  • Labour 30.4%
  • Mana 15.7%

Waiariki

  • Maori 59.3%
  • Mana 18.7%
  • Labour 8.8%

Te Tai Tonga

  • Labour 41.4%%
  • Maori 34.5%
  • Mana 3.4%

Tainui

  • Labour 58.8%%
  • Maori 12.9%
  • Mana 17.6%

Te Tai Hauauru

  • Labour 40.3%%
  • Maori 48.6%%
  • Mana 1.4%

Ikaroa Rawhiti

  • Labour 40.5%%
  • Maori 31.6%
  • NZ First 10.1%
  • Mana 8.9%

With the high margin of error, one can work out the probability that a candidate in the seat is actually in the lead. They are:

  • Te Tai Tokerau – Labour ahead with 58% probability
  • Tamaki Makaurau – Maori Party ahead with 96% probability
  • Waiariki – Maori Party ahead with 100% probability
  • Te Tai Tonga – Labour ahead with 78% probability
  • Tainui – Labour ahead with 1005 probability
  • Te Tai Hauauru – Maori Party ahead with 80% probability
  • Ikaroa Rawhiti – Labour ahead with 85% probability

Has Maori Party represented Maori well?

  • Yes 56%
  • No 34%

Support Maori Party decision to vote for Marine and Coastal Area Bill?

  • Yes 54%
  • No 28%

Accept Maori Party position that compromise worthwhile to ensure seat at Cabinet table?

  • Yes 69%
  • No 21%

Agree with Harawira that Maori Party lacks energy and candidates too old?

  • Yes 35%
  • No 54%

Should Shane Jones take over from Phil Goff as Labour Leader?

  • Yes 47%
  • No 31%

Has traditional voter support for Labour dropped?

  • Yes 77%
  • No 9%

Can Hone Harawira effectively lead Mana Party?

  • Yes 55%
  • No 35%

Which Maori MP best represents views of Maori?

  • Pita Sharples 22%
  • Tariana Turia 20%
  • Hone Harawira 11%
  • Winston Peters 3.8%
  • Shane Jones 3.6%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 33%
  • Pita Sharples 7%
  • Tariana Turia 4.8%
  • Phil Goff 4.4%
  • Hone Harawira 3.9%
  • Winston Peters 3.7%
  • Shane Jones 2.8%
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Roy Morgan late September 2011

October 1, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 788, of whom 773 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 12 September to 25 September 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-6.0%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+4.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-+4.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 2.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-2.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 37
  • Green 14
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 65/121 – 4 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 52/122 – 9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (-3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+2.0%)
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Fairfax Research International poll September 2011

September 28, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Dates: 22 to 26 August 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 54.3% (-2.8%)
  • Labour 28.1% (+2.4%)
  • Green 10.1% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.3% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 35
  • Green 13
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 13 + Mana 1= 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 51.0% (-3.6%)
  • Phil Goff 6.9% (-1.6%)
  • Winston Peters 3.0% (+0.2%)
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Roy Morgan poll late September 2011

September 17, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 938, of whom 882 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6%

Dates: 28 August to 11 September 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 57.0% (+5.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 7.5% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.5% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 33
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/121 – 13 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 43/122 – 18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 28.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late August 2011

September 5, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 845, of whom 803 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5%

Dates: 15 August to 28 August 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 9.0% (+1.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 11
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.0% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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Fairfax Research International Poll August 2011

September 5, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000, of whom xxx had a party preference

Dates: 25 to 29 August 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 57.1% (+1.1%)
  • Labour 25.7% (-3.3%)
  • Green 11.0% (+4.6%)
  • ACT 1.1% (-1.1%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.6% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 32
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 54.6% (+1.6%)
  • Phil Goff 8.5% (+2.3%)
  • Winston Peters 2.8% (+0.3%)

Labour Leadership

  • 20% say they are more likely to vote Labour if they change leader
  • 11% say less likely
  • 65% say no difference

Rugby World Cup

  • 68% think NZ will win
  • 11% Australia
  • 7% South Africa
  • 2% England
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NZ Herald Digipoll August 2011

September 5, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 666 had a party vote preference

Dates: 19 to 26 August 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-0.3%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-1.6%)
  • Green 9.8% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.8% (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 1.2% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.6% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 52/124 -10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 69.7% (-0.6%)
  • Goff 11.5% (+2.2%)
  • Peters 5.2% (+2.2%)
  • Clark 5.8% (-2.1%)

Direction

  • Right 59.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 32.2% (-1.6%)
  • Unsure 8.3% (-0.4%)
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3 News Reid Research Poll August 2011

September 5, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 13 August to 17 August 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (-1.1%)
  • Labour 28.8% (-1.1%)
  • Green 9.3% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 2.2% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5%  (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 36
  • Green 11
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 9 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 48/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 53% (+2.5%)
  • Goff 8% (+1.1%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 74.9% (+2.8%) doing well vs 14.5% (+0.6%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.4% (+2.2%)
  • Goff  – 26.1% (+1.8%) doing well vs 52.5% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -26.4% (-0.9%)

Policy Preference

  • 53% prefer a capital gains tax while 31% preferred partial asset sales
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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