Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Herald Digipoll late October 2011

November 6, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 10.3%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 673 had a party vote preference

Dates: 28 to 02 November 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 54.2% (+0.7%)
  • Labour 29.1% (-1.2%)
  • Green 10.1% (+1.6%)
  • NZ First 1.7% (-1.1%)
  • Maori 1.9% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-0.6%)
  • Mana 0.1% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.1% (+1.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/124 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 50/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.6% (nc)
  • Goff 11.7% (-2.0%)
  • Peters 3.7% (+0.2%)

 

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Fairfax Research International Poll October 2011

November 2, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Dates: 27 to 31 October 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 52.6% (-1.7%)
  • Labour 31.3% (+3.2%)
  • Green 9.7% (-0.4%)
  • ACT 1.2% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Mana 1.1% (+0.9%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 + Mana 1= 52/124 -10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 52.8% (+1.8%)
  • Phil Goff 9.1% (+2.2%)
  • Winston Peters 3.0% (+0.2%)
Christchurch Earthquake Recover
  • 48% of Canterbury residents say decision making is too slow
  • 55% say they have had ample opportunity to contribute to CBD planning process
  • 60% say speed of demolition and rebuild of CBD has been as fast as expected
Govt handling of economy
  • 50.6% good
  • 30% not so sure
  • 15.7% poor
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3 News Reid Research Poll October 2011

November 1, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 20 October to 27 October 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 52.3% (-5.1%)
  • Labour 30.2% (+3.6%)
  • Green 9.4% (-0.4%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.4%  (+0.6%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 38
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 68/124 – 6 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 51/124 -11 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 52.7% (-1.8%)
  • Goff 9.8% (+3.6%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 71.1% (-5.1%) doing well vs 17.9% (+6.4%) doing poorly – net positive is 53.2% (-11.5%)
  • Goff  – 28.4% (+1.6%) doing well vs 54.2% (+5.1%) doing poorly – net positive is -25.8% (-3.5%)

Govt handling of Rena

  • 36% didn’t do well
  • 30% okay
  • 34% done well

Importance of Issues

  • Environment 8.2/10
  • food prices and the quality of our schools at 7.9.
  • Hospital care was third at 7.8.
  • The price of petrol was fourth at 7.7.
  • The number of people living in poverty was fifth 7.5.

 

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Roy Morgan late October 2011

November 1, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 933, of whom 872 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 10 October to 23 October 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (+1.5%)
  • Green 9.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/121 – 7 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 50/122 – 11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.0% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.0%)
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Te Tai Tokerau poll October 2011

October 31, 2011

Digipoll did a poll of 400 respondents in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate.

Party Vote

  • Labour 27%
  • Maori 27%
  • Mana 25%
  • National 14%
  • Greens 4%
  • NZ Furst 3%

Electorate Vote

  • Hone Harawira (Mana) 42%
  • Kelvin Davis (Labour) 35%
  • Waihoroi Shortland (Maori) 20%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 26%
  • Hone Harawira 11%
  • Shane Jones 7%
  • Pita Sharples 7%
  • Phil Goff 6%
  • Tariana Turia 3%
  • Kelvin Davis 2%

Government Direction

  • Right 29%
  • Wrong 58%

Most favoured Maori MP

  • Hone Harawira 30%
  • Pita Sharples 22%
  • Kelvin Davis 11%
  • Tariana Turia 7%
  • Shane Jones 6%

Most Important Issue

  • Education 18%
  • Employment 15%
  • Whanau 10%
  • Treaty Claims 9%

Well being

  • Better Off 20%
  • Worse Off 50%
  • No difference 30%
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NZ Herald Digipoll October 2011

October 29, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 10.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 671 had a party vote preference

Dates: 20 to 27 October 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 30.3% (-1.2%)
  • Green 9.5% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 38
  • Green 12
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 51/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.6% (+0.9%)
  • Goff 13.7% (+2.2%)
  • Peters 3.5% (-1.7%)

Direction

  • Right 59.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 32.0% (-0.2%)
  • Unsure 9.0% (+0.7%)

MMP

  • Keep MMP 48%
  • Change 15%
  • Don’t Know 15%

Rugby World Cup

  • 39% say McCaw should be knighted for winning RWC, 61% say no
  • 57% say the RWC was a great event and worth spending $40m on
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UMR Epsom poll

October 24, 2011

NBR have published a poll done in Epsom of 400 voters taken on 7 an 8 October.

Electorate Vote

  • Paul Goldsmith, National – 42%
  • John Banks, ACT – 28%
  • David Parker, Labour – 19%
  • David Hay, Greens – 11%

Electorate Vote if John Key indicates he wants ACT to win Epsom

  • Paul Goldsmith, National – 25%
  • John Banks, ACT – 43%
  • David Parker, Labour – 19%
  • David Hay, Greens – 11%

Expect to win Epsom

  • Paul Goldsmith, National – 37%
  • John Banks, ACT – 53%
  • David Parker, Labour – 9%
  • David Hay, Greens – 1%

Party Vote

  • National 65%
  • Labour 19%
  • Greens 10%
  • ACT 4%

Don Brash as ACT Leader

  • Worked out poorly 47%
  • Made no difference 30%
  • Worked out well 14%
  • Unsure 9%

 

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Roy Morgan early October 2011

October 18, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 847, of whom 788 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 26 September to 09 October 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 55.5% (+4.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-2.5%)
  • Green 9.5% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 34
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/121 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 47/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.0% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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Hamilton Poll

October 16, 2011

A Versus Research poll of 413 Hamilton residents for the Waikato Times found:

Hamilton East

  • David Bennett, National – 51.2%
  • Sehai Orgad, Labour – 19.5%
  • Don’t Know 22.4%

Hamilton West

  • Tim Macindoe, National, 41.8%
  • Sue Moroney, Labour – 31.3%
  • Don’t Know 31.3%
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Epsom Poll October 2011

October 10, 2011

The Herald on Sunday publishes results of a poll of 500 Epsom voters by Key Research,

Party Vote

  • National 67.6%
  • Labour 9.7%
  • ACT 5.7%
  • Greens 5.3%

Electorate Vote

  • National 32.9%
  • ACT 18.9%
  • Labour 4.3%
  • Greens 1.0%
  • Undecided 41.5%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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