Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Waiariki poll November 2011

November 14, 2011

Digipoll did a poll of 400 respondents in the Waiariki electorate for Te Karere.

Party Vote

  • Maori 40%
  • Labour 28%
  • Mana 15%
  • National 9%
  • NZ First 5%
  • Greens 3%

Electorate Vote

  • Te Ururoa Flavell (Maori) 56%
  • Louis Te Kani (Labour) 22%
  • Annette Sykes (Mana) 22%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 19%
  • Pita Sharples 9%
  • Phil Goff 7%
  • Shane Jones 6%
  • Hone Harawira 6%
  • Tariana Turia 4%

Government Direction

  • Right 27%
  • Wrong 60%

Most favoured Maori MP

  • Te Ururoa Flavell 27%
  • Pita Sharples 15%
  • Hone Harawira 13%
  • Tariana Turia 9%
  • Shane Jones 5%
  • Metiria Turei 2%

Most Important Issue

  • Jobs 16%
  • Education 12%
  • Environment 9%
  • Economy 9%

Well being

  • Better Off 21%
  • Worse Off 44%
  • No difference 35%
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3 News Reid Research Poll 13 November 2011

November 13, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 3 November to 10 November 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 53.3% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 29.9% (-0.3%)
  • Green 10.2% (+0.8%)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.8%)
  • Maori 1.4%  (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/122 – 6 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 51/122 -11 less than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.0% (-2.7%)
  • Goff 12.4% (+2.6%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 68.9% (-2.2%) doing well vs 17.2% (-0.7%) doing poorly – net positive is 51.7% (-1.5%)
  • Goff  – 34.6% (+6.2%) doing well vs 44.8% (-9.4%) doing poorly – net positive is -10.2% (+15.6%)
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Waimakariri poll

November 12, 2011

The Press reports on a poll of 250 voters in Waimakariri:

Electorate Vote

  • Kate Wilkinson 53.9%
  • Clayton Cosgrove 36%
  • Undecided 23.5%

Party Vote

  • National 71.9%
  • Labour 17.4%
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Ohariu Poll

November 12, 2011

The Dom Post reports a poll 163 voters in Ohariu. The electorate vote is:

  • Peter Dunne 37.4%
  • Charles Chauvel 35.6%
  • Katrina Shanks 19%
  • Gareth Hughes 1.4%
  • Undecided 34.6%

 

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Roy Morgan early November 2011

November 11, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 911, of whom 847 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: 24 October to 06 November 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+2.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 33
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (-2.5%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-0.5%)
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NZ Herald Digipoll 11 November 2011

November 11, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 8.1%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 689 had a party vote preference

Dates: 03 to 09 November 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+0.7%)
  • Labour 28.7% (-1.2%)
  • Green 12.6% (+1.6%)
  • NZ First 3.7% (-1.1%)
  • Maori 0.5% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.7% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.6%)
  • Mana 0.8% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 36
  • Green 16
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 53/124 -9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 68.5% (-2.1%)
  • Goff 17.9% (+6.2%)
  • Peters 4.3% (+0.6%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 10 November 2011

November 10, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Estimate 1000

Undecideds:

Dates: 05 November to 09 November 2011

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 2.1% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.8% (+0.7%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 2.9% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 35
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/122 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 12 + Mana 1= 48/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 55% (-3%)
  • Phil Goff 14% (+4%)
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Fairfax Research International poll early November 2011

November 9, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Dates: 03 to 07 November 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 52.5% (-0.1%)
  • Labour 25.9% (-5.4%)
  • Green 12.6% (+2.9%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (+1.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 33
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 50/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 52.2% (-0.6%)
  • Phil Goff 13.5% (+4.4%)

 

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Tamaki Makaurau poll October 2011

November 7, 2011

Digipoll did a poll of 400 respondents in the Tamaki Makaurau electorate for Te Karere.

Party Vote

  • Labour 32%
  • Maori 28%
  • National 17%
  • Mana 13%
  • Greens 5%
  • NZ First 4%

Electorate Vote

  • Pita Sharples (Maori) 58%
  • Shane Jones (Labour) 23%
  • Kereama Pene (Mana) 14%
  • Mikaere Curtis (Greens) 3%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 28%
  • Pita Sharples 13%
  • Phil Goff 7%
  • Shane Jones 7%
  • Hone Harawira 7%
  • Tariana Turia 3%

Government Direction

  • Right 27%
  • Wrong 59%

Most favoured Maori MP

  • Pita Sharples 36%
  • Hone Harawira 20%
  • Shane Jones 11%
  • Winston Peters 4%
  • Metiria Turei 4%
  • Parekura Horomia 4%

Most Important Issue

  • Education 12%
  • Employment 16%
  • Economy 10%
  • Health 9%

Well being

  • Better Off 27%
  • Worse Off 43%
  • No difference 30%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll October 2011

November 6, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 858 had a party preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 29 October to 2 November 2011

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (nc)
  • Labour 30.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.9% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 37
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/123 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 49/122 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 56% (-3%)
  • Phil Goff 12% (+4%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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