Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan poll late April 2012

May 7, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 889, of whom 840 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 16 April 2012 to 29 April 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 28.5% (+2.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – 3 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – 1 fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 32.5% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-1.0%)
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Epsom poll

May 7, 2012

The Herald on Sunday reports:

Banks, copping heavy criticism over donations from Kim Dotcom and SkyCity listed as being anonymous from his 2010 mayoralty bid, has lost a great deal of support, according to the Herald on Sunday-Key Research survey.

Only 10 per cent of electors would vote for him now – down from 44.1 per cent at the election last November – and a National candidate would romp home.

More said they would vote for a Labour candidate than for Banks. In a party vote, the vast majority would vote National, and fewer than 1 per cent would vote Act.

Nearly half of voters – 46.7 per cent – say they have a lower opinion of Banks after his statements of the past week on local government election donations.

The telephone survey of 510 eligible voters in the Epsom electorate aged 18+ has a margin of error of +/- 4.34 per cent.

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NZ Herald Digipoll April 2012

May 1, 2012

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 7.1%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 697 had a party vote preference

Dates: 19 to 29 April 2012

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.1% (-2.8%)
  • Labour 34.8% (+6.8%)
  • Green 9.2% (-2.6%)
  • NZ First 4.9% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.7% (+1.3%)
  • United Future 0.7% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-1.8%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.1% (-1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 44
  • Green 12
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 611 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 57/126 -5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 63.9% (-2.4%)
  • Shearer 13.1% (-6.4% from Goff)
  • Peters 6.4% (+0.9%)
Country Direction

  • Right 49.2% (-5.2%)
  • Wrong 42.1% (+5.4%)
  • Unsure 8.7% (-0.2%)

Paid Parental Leave

  • In favour of extending to 26 weeks 48.6%
  • Against 48.4%

Sky City deal

  • 40.3% disapprove
  • 37.7% approve so long as number of pokies over the city drops

 

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3 News Reid Research Poll April 2012

April 22, 2012

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 14 to 19 April 2012

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 49.8% (+2.3%)
  • Labour 29.4% (nc)
  • Green 14.1% (+0.8%)
  • ACT 0.2% (nc)
  • Maori 1.6%  (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.9% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (-2.7%)
  • Conservative 1.1% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 37
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/123 – two more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 56/122 -six less than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 44.2% (-1.6%)
  • Shearer 10.4% (+0.3%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 59.9% (-0.6%) doing well vs 24.0% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net rating is +35.9% (-2.6%)
  • Shearer  – 32.5% (-2.6%) doing well vs 26.2% (+9.0%) doing poorly – net positive is +6.3% (-11.6%)
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Roy Morgan Poll early April 2012

April 20, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 928, of whom 900 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.0%

Dates: 02 April 2012 to 15 April 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+5.5%)
  • Labour 26.5% (-4.0%)
  • Green 12.5% (-4.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 32
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/122 – 1 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 15 + NZ First 8 + Mana 1 = 56/122 – 6 greater than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-3.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late March 2012

April 7, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 948, of whom 915 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 12 March 2012 to 1 April 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 17.0% (+4.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 36
  • Green 20
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/122 – 6 less than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 20 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 63/122 – 2 greater than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 53.5% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 17.0% (+3.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll early March 2012

March 16, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 904, of whom 868 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 27 February 2012 to 11 March 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 12.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/122 – 1 less than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 58/122 – 4 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll 24 November 2011

November 25, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 959, of whom 921 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 22 to 24 November 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 23.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 14.5% (+1.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+3.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 29
  • Green 18
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – 1 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 18 + NZ First 8 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – 5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 49.5% (-11.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+7.0%)
  • Can’t Say 19.5% (+4.0%)
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NZ Herald Digipoll 25 November 2011

November 25, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 7.7%

Poll Size: 850 respondents, of whom 785 had a party vote preference

Dates: 17 to 23 November 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.9% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.1%)
  • Green 11.8% (-0.8%)
  • NZ First 5.2% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-01.%)
  • ACT 1.8% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 126

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/126 – 2 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 56/126 -8 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 66.3% (-2.2%)
  • Goff 19.5% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 4.3% (+0.6%)
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3 News Reid Research Poll 24 Nov 2011

November 24, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: assumed 19 November to 23 November 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (+0.6%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-1.4%)
  • Green 13.4% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.5%  (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 3.1% (-0.4%)
  • Conservative 1.8% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 34
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 52/123 -10 less than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 49.0% (nc)
  • Goff 12.0% (+2.0%)
  • Peters 4.0% (nc)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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