Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

3 News Reid Research poll July 2012

August 5, 2012

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 28 July to 1 August 2012

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 50.6% (+4.8%)
  • Labour 30.8% (-2.4%)
  • Green 11.2% (-3.2%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.6%  (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 1.7% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/124 – four more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 54/122 – nine fewer than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 43.2% (+2.7%)
  • Shearer 8.9% (-3.4%)
  • Peters 6.2% (+1.4%)
  • Norman 2.0% (-2.0%)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2012

August 5, 2012

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,005 of whom 878 had a party vote preference

Undecideds:

Dates: 28 July to 1 August 2012

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 32.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 2.3% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.4% (-0.6%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.9% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 40
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 15 + Mana 1= 56/122 -5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 45% (-3%)
  • David Shearer 13% (-1%)

Partial Asset Sales

  • 32% in favour
  • 62% against
  • 59% say they could afford to buy $1,000 of shares
  • 41% say they could not
  • 34% say they are very or quite likely to buy shares
  • 25% say not likely to buy shares and 40% not at all likely

Alcohol minimum price

  • 54% support a minimum price
  • 42% do not
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NZ Herald Digipoll June 2012

July 2, 2012

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 8.4%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 687 had a party vote preference

Dates: 18 to 25 June 2012

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 34.0% (-0.8%)
  • Green 9.1% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.3% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.7% (+1.6%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 43
  • Green 11
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/123 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 11 + Mana 2 = 56/126 -5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 63.5% (-0.4%)
  • Shearer 14.2% (+1.1%)
  • Peters 7.3% (+0.9%)
Country Direction

  • Right 49.7% (+0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll late June 2012

July 1, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,057, of whom 1,020 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 08 June 2012 to 24 June 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 57/121 – four less than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.0% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 34.5% (-3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-1.0%)
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Herald on Sunday Key Research Poll June 2012

June 24, 2012

Polling Company: Key Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 700, of whom 589 had a party preference

Undecideds: 15.9%

Dates: 20 to 22 June 2012

Client: Herald on Sunday

Report: Herald on Sunday and full results on Scribd

Party Support

  • National 47.9% (-8.5%)
  • Labour 30.4% (+6.2%)
  • Green 14.8% (+2.2%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Maori 1.7% (+1.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 3.2% (-0.4%)
  • Conservative 0.8% (-0.6%)

Note comparisons are to a pre-election poll, done eights months ago.

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 38
  • Green 19
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + United Future 1 = 62/123 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 19 + Mana 1= 58/122 -4 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 45.9%
  • David Shearer 16.9%
  • Winston Peters 3.2%
Asset Sales
  • 25% support partial sales, 64% against
  • 60% would purchase shares if they had the money, 31% would not
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Roy Morgan poll early June 2012

June 17, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,038, of whom 996 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 28 May 2012 to 07 June 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+0.5%)
  • Green 12.5% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 38
  • Green 15
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – 4 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 15 + NZ First 7 + Mana 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 48.0% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 37.5% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.5%)
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3 News Reid Research Poll June 2012

June 10, 2012

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 02 to 07 June 2012

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 45.8% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 33.2% (+3.8%)
  • Green 14.4% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.4%  (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.3% (-0.6%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.1% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 42
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/123 – three fewer than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 61/122 -one fewer than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.5% (-3.7%)
  • Shearer 12.3% (+1.9%)
  • Peters 4.8%
  • Norman 4.0%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll May 2012

June 4, 2012

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds:

Dates: assume 26 May to 31 May 2012

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+2.0%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.1%)
  • United Future 0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.0% (-1.1%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 41
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – 2 less than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 17 + Mana 1= 59/122 -3 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48% (nc)
  • David Shearer 14% (+3%)
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Roy Morgan poll late May 2012

June 4, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 944, of whom 906 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 14 May 2012 to 27 May 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 13.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 38
  • Green 17
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – 5 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 62/121 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 49.0% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 38.0% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll early May 2012

June 4, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 894, of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 30 April 2012 to 13 May 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+1.5%)
  • Green 15.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 37
  • Green 18
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – 6 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 + NZ First 7 + Mana 1 = 63/121 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 51.0% (-4.0%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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