Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan poll early June 2012

June 17, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,038, of whom 996 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 28 May 2012 to 07 June 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+0.5%)
  • Green 12.5% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 38
  • Green 15
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – 4 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 15 + NZ First 7 + Mana 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 48.0% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 37.5% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.5%)
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3 News Reid Research Poll June 2012

June 10, 2012

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 02 to 07 June 2012

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 45.8% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 33.2% (+3.8%)
  • Green 14.4% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.4%  (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.3% (-0.6%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.1% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 42
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/123 – three fewer than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 61/122 -one fewer than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.5% (-3.7%)
  • Shearer 12.3% (+1.9%)
  • Peters 4.8%
  • Norman 4.0%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll May 2012

June 4, 2012

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds:

Dates: assume 26 May to 31 May 2012

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+2.0%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.1%)
  • United Future 0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.0% (-1.1%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 41
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – 2 less than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 17 + Mana 1= 59/122 -3 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48% (nc)
  • David Shearer 14% (+3%)
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Roy Morgan poll late May 2012

June 4, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 944, of whom 906 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 14 May 2012 to 27 May 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 13.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 38
  • Green 17
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – 5 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 62/121 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 49.0% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 38.0% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll early May 2012

June 4, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 894, of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 30 April 2012 to 13 May 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+1.5%)
  • Green 15.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 37
  • Green 18
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – 6 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 + NZ First 7 + Mana 1 = 63/121 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 51.0% (-4.0%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll late April 2012

May 7, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 889, of whom 840 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 16 April 2012 to 29 April 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 28.5% (+2.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – 3 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – 1 fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 32.5% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-1.0%)
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Epsom poll

May 7, 2012

The Herald on Sunday reports:

Banks, copping heavy criticism over donations from Kim Dotcom and SkyCity listed as being anonymous from his 2010 mayoralty bid, has lost a great deal of support, according to the Herald on Sunday-Key Research survey.

Only 10 per cent of electors would vote for him now – down from 44.1 per cent at the election last November – and a National candidate would romp home.

More said they would vote for a Labour candidate than for Banks. In a party vote, the vast majority would vote National, and fewer than 1 per cent would vote Act.

Nearly half of voters – 46.7 per cent – say they have a lower opinion of Banks after his statements of the past week on local government election donations.

The telephone survey of 510 eligible voters in the Epsom electorate aged 18+ has a margin of error of +/- 4.34 per cent.

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NZ Herald Digipoll April 2012

May 1, 2012

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 7.1%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 697 had a party vote preference

Dates: 19 to 29 April 2012

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.1% (-2.8%)
  • Labour 34.8% (+6.8%)
  • Green 9.2% (-2.6%)
  • NZ First 4.9% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.7% (+1.3%)
  • United Future 0.7% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-1.8%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.1% (-1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 44
  • Green 12
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 611 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 57/126 -5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 63.9% (-2.4%)
  • Shearer 13.1% (-6.4% from Goff)
  • Peters 6.4% (+0.9%)
Country Direction

  • Right 49.2% (-5.2%)
  • Wrong 42.1% (+5.4%)
  • Unsure 8.7% (-0.2%)

Paid Parental Leave

  • In favour of extending to 26 weeks 48.6%
  • Against 48.4%

Sky City deal

  • 40.3% disapprove
  • 37.7% approve so long as number of pokies over the city drops

 

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3 News Reid Research Poll April 2012

April 22, 2012

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 14 to 19 April 2012

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 49.8% (+2.3%)
  • Labour 29.4% (nc)
  • Green 14.1% (+0.8%)
  • ACT 0.2% (nc)
  • Maori 1.6%  (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.9% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (-2.7%)
  • Conservative 1.1% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 37
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/123 – two more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 56/122 -six less than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 44.2% (-1.6%)
  • Shearer 10.4% (+0.3%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 59.9% (-0.6%) doing well vs 24.0% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net rating is +35.9% (-2.6%)
  • Shearer  – 32.5% (-2.6%) doing well vs 26.2% (+9.0%) doing poorly – net positive is +6.3% (-11.6%)
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Roy Morgan Poll early April 2012

April 20, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 928, of whom 900 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.0%

Dates: 02 April 2012 to 15 April 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+5.5%)
  • Labour 26.5% (-4.0%)
  • Green 12.5% (-4.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 32
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/122 – 1 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 15 + NZ First 8 + Mana 1 = 56/122 – 6 greater than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-3.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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