Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan poll late May 2013

May 30, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,057 of whom 1,004 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 13 May 2013 to 26 May 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 41.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-1.0%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 46
  • Green 16
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + United Future 1 = 54/120 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 46 + Greens 16 + NZ First 0 + Mana 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 32.5% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.0%)
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Fairfax Ipsos Poll May 2013

May 29, 2013

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 of whom 828 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.2%

Dates: 20 May 2013 to 24 May 2013

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 49.4% (+4.5%)
  • Labour 31.9% (-4.4%)
  • Green 11.2% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 3.2% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Mana0.1% (-1.3%)
  • Conservative 1.6% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 46
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 46 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.2% (+7.0%)
  • Wrong 40.4% (-7.4%)
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3 News Reid Research Poll May 2013

May 26, 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom 849 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12.8%

Dates: 17 to 23 May 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3NewsPoll may 2013

Party Support

  • National 47.1% (-2.3%)
  • Labour 33.1% (+2.9%)
  • Green 12.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 2.2%  (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (-1.6%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.7% (+3.1%)
  • Shearer 10.5% (+0.5%)
  • Peters 6.1% (+0.8%)
  • Norman 3.6% (+0.3%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

  • John Key – 55.0% (-0.3%) well and 30.3% (-1.9%) poor = +24.7% net well (+1.6%)
  • David Shearer – 36.2% (+3.8%) well and 36.3% (+0.5%) poor = -0.1% net well (+3.3%)

Labour/Green power policy

  • Support 54%
  • Oppose 39%

Waka Jumping

  • 77% support a law to allow parties to expel from Parliament List MPs
  • 18% opposed
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll May 2013

May 26, 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 respondents of whom 849 had a party vote preference

Undecideds: Dates: 18 to 22 May 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (-4.0%)
  • ACT 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 1.3% (nc)
  • United Future 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • Mana 1.2% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (+0.6%)
  • Conservative 1.7% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 42
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 11 + Mana 2= 55/122 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (+3.0%)
  • David Shearer 12% (-3.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (+1%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 55% (+5%)
  • Same 19% (nc)
  • Worse 26% (-5%)

Food in Schools

  • 70% support the Government providing food to children at low decile schools
  • 26% against

Budget 2013

  • Personally better off 6% (+3% from 2012)
  • About the same 70% (+2%)
  • Worse off 13% (-9%)

Affordable Housing

  • 30% say Govt doing enough to keep housing affordable
  • 62% say not enough

Electricity

  • 57% support Labour/Green policy
  • 37% oppose
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Roy Morgan poll early May 2013

May 20, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 894 of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 29 April 2013 to 12 May 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+0.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 40
  • Green 15
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + United Future 1 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 15 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 30.5% (-3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll late April 2013

May 2, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 877 of whom 833 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 15 April 2013 to 28 April 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-4.0%)
  • Green 11.5% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 41
  • Green 14
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 14 + NZ First 0 + Mana 1 = 56/120 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 54.5% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.5%)
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3 News Reid Research Poll April 2013

April 21, 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Approx 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 13 to 18 April 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 49.4% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 30.2% (-2.4%)
  • Green 11.5% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.0%  (+0.6%)
  • United Future
  • Mana 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.8% (+0.4%)
  • Conservative 2.0% (+1.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 39
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/123 – three more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 55/123 – seven fewer than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 37.6% (-3.4%)
  • Shearer 10.0% (nc)
  • Peters
  • Norman

Leadership Performance Ratings

  • John Key – 55.3% (-1.5%) well and 32.2% (+6.4%) poor = +23.1% net well (-7.9%)
  • David Shearer – 32.4% (-2.5%) well and 35.8% (-3.8%) poor = -3.4% net well (-6.3%)

GCSB

  • 50% trusted
  • 40% not trusted
  • 11% unsure

Kim Dotcom

  • 48% should be allowed to stay
  • 42% sent to US
  • 10% unsure

 

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll April 2013

April 21, 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,009 respondents of whom 835 had a voting preference

Undecideds: Dates: 13 to 17 April 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-6.0%)
  • Labour 36.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+2.0%)
  • ACT 0.1% (nc)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.3)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-0.9%)
  • Conservative 1.7% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 46
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/123 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 46 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 63/123 – one more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39% (-5.0%)
  • David Shearer 15% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 3% (-2%)
Economic Outlook
  • Better 50% (+2%)
  • Same 19% (-3%)
  • Worse 31% (+1%)
 Partial Asset Sales
  • Support 29% (+1%)
  • Opposed 64% (nc)
  • Unsure 8% (+2%)
Paid Parental Leave
  • 62% support extension from 14 to 26 weeks
  • 34% opposed

Trust in Security Services

  • 32% do not trust
  • 32% trust
  • 33% in the middle

Relationship with China

  • 41% comfortable
  • 30% uncomfortable
  • 28% neutral
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Roy Morgan poll early April 2013

April 19, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 879 of whom 830 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 01 April 2013 to 14 April 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 40.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 35.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 13.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+2.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 50
  • Labour 43
  • Green 17
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 50 + United Future 1 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 17 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 67/120 – six more than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 51.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+0.5%)
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NZ Herald DigiPoll March 2013

March 21, 2013

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: Unknown

Poll Size: 750 respondents

Dates: 11 to 17 March 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+0.6%)
  • Labour 36.3% (+4.4%)
  • Green 9.0% (-1.7%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 1.1% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 46
  • Green 11
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 46 + Greens 11 + NZ First 0 + Mana 1 = 58/124 -5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 63.0% (-2.6%)
  • Shearer 18.5% (+5.6%)
  • Peters 4.0%

Country Direction

  • Right 49.0% (+0.9%)
  • Wrong 43.0% (+0.3%)
Asset Sales
  • 52% opposed to sale of MRP, 32% in favour
  • 30% plan to buy shares in MRP

Term of Parliament

  • 51% 3 years
  • 48% 4 years

Marriage

  • Should remain between a man and a woman 48% (+8%)
  • Allow same-sex couples to marry 52% (-4%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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