Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan poll late August 2013

September 3, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 819 of whom 778 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 12 August 2013 to 25 August 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 14.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+2.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 38
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/121

On this poll there NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (nc)
  • Wrong 30.5% (+0.5)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)
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Fairfax Ipsos poll August 2013

August 24, 2013

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 of whom xxx have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.2%

Dates: 10 August 2013 to 15 August 2013

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 48.3% (-1.1%)
  • Labour 31.6% (-0.3%)
  • Green 12.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • Conservative 1.4% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT1 + United Future 1 = 62/120 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 55/120 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/120

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (-1.2%)
  • Wrong 42.0% (+1.6%)

GCSB

  • 75% at least partly worried about GCSB law
  • 30% very concerned
  • 54% trust Government to protect their privacy while maintaining national security
  • $0% do not
 100% pure
  • 21% say we are 80% to 100% pure
  • Average pure rating is 65%

House Affordability

  • 21% can afford an $88,000 deposit (20% of average house), 31% with family help, 48% can not
  • 81% say having Govt offer low deposit loans to first time home buyers will be effective in tackling rising house prices
  • 73% say having Govt build more affordable homes will be effective
  • 68% say releasing more land for housing will be effective
  • 49% say stopping non residents purchasing will be effective
  • 37% say introducing a CGT will be effective
  • 29% say forcing buyers to have bigger loan deposits will be effective

Leader Trust

  • Fully believe John Key 24% yes and 59% no
  • Fully believe David Shearer 33% yes and 43% no
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Roy Morgan poll early August 2013

August 20, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 919 of whom 878 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.5%

Dates: 29 July 2013 to 11 August 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-7.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+5.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (+4.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 42
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/121

On this poll there would be a centre-left government.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 30.0% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2013

August 5, 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006 respondents of whom 862 had a voting preference

Undecideds: Dates: estimate 27 July to 31 July 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (nc)
  • Green 14.0% (+5.0%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2%(-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.3% (-0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.6% (-1.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 42
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 17 + Mana 1= 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 41% (-1.0%)
  • David Shearer 13% (+1.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Next National Leader

  • Bill English 23%
  • Steven Joyce 16%
  • Judith Collins 11%
  • Someone else 5%
  • Don’t know 45%

Economic Outlook

  • Better 52% (-3%)
  • Worse 28% (+2%)
  • Same 20% (+1%)

Meridian share float

  • 14% likely to buy shares
  • 86% unlikely

GST on international purchases

  • 36% support GST on online purchases of under $400
  • 59% oppose

Foreign property buyers

  • 62% support foreigners being unable to buy
  • 32% opposed

 

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Roy Morgan poll late July 2013

August 1, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 824 of whom 791 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 15 July 2013 to 28 July 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/122 – six more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 51/122 – eleven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll there would be a centre-right government.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 30.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.0%)
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3 News Reid Research Poll July 2013

July 22, 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom 831 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.2%

Dates: 09 to 17 July 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3NewsPoll July 2013

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+2.4%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.1%)
  • Green 12.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.2% (nc)
  • Maori 1.6%  (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (+1.7%)
  • Conservative 1.1% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 40
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 56/124 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 42.0% (+1.3%)
  • Shearer 12.1% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 7.0% (+0.9%)
  • Norman 1.7% (-1.9%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

  • John Key – 52.0% (-3.0%) well and 32.2% (+1.9%) poor = +19% net well (-4.9%)
  • David Shearer – 26.1% (-10.1%) well and 43.3% (+7.0%) poor = -17.2% net well (-17.1%)

Kim Dotcom

  • 52% believe Kim Dotcom’s claims John Key knew of him before the raids
  • 34% believe Key’s denials

David Shearer

  • 42% say Shearer should step down as Labour leader
  • 45% say Shearer should remain
  • 39% of Labour voters say Shearer should step down, 51% say stay

Alternate Labour Leaders

  • David Cunliffe 26%
  • Grant Robertson 16%
  • Andrew Little 9%
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Roy Morgan poll early July 2013

July 22, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 956 of whom 918 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 01 July 2013 to 14 July 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll there would be a centre-right government.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+1.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll late June 2013

July 2, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 971 of whom 913 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: 17 June 2013 to 30 June 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (+2.5%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-1.5%)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 3.5% (-2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 40
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/122 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 58/122 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 57.0% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 32.0% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 11.0% (-1.5%)
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NZ Herald poll June 2013

June 26, 2013

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.9%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 661 had a party preference

Dates: 12 to 23 June 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.8% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 30.9% (-5.5%)
  • Green 10.5% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.1% (+2.6%)
  • Maori 1.8% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 38
  • Green 13
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/123 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 52/123 -10 less than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/123

Preferred PM

  • Key 65.2% (+2.2%)
  • Shearer 12.4% (-6.1%)
  • Peters 6.4% (+2.4%)
  • Norman 3.6%

Labour Leadership successors if Shearer goes

  • David Cunliffe 31.8%
  • Grant Robertson 16.7%
  • Andrew Little 13.5%
  • Other 11.0%
  • Unsure 27.0%

Inquiry into GCSB

  • Agree 52.1%
  • Disagree 36.9%
  • Don’t Know 11.0%

Peter Dunne

  • 22% believe he did not leak GCSB report
  • 59% do not believe his denial

Sky City deal

  • 34% approve
  • 62% disapprove

Fluoride

  • 48% support fluoride being added to drinking water
  • 25% opposed
  • 24% up to local council

Fiordland transport projects

  • 46.2% back a tunnel and/or monorail track
  • 46.2% oppose

National leadership when Key goes

  • Bill English 29.7%
  • Steven Joyce 25.4%
  • Judith Collin 13.0%

Student Loans

  • 57% agree with arresting loan defaulters at the border
  • 40% disagree

Sir Douglas Graham

  • 55% say he should lose knighthood
  • 33% disagree

Working for Families Tax Credits

  • 51% support extending to parents on welfare
  • 41% opposed

Housing developments

  • 43% back Govt having power to override councils’ planning and consent processes
  • 51% opposed
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Roy Morgan poll early June 2013

June 21, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 909 of whom 854 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: 03 June 2013 to 16 June 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 11.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 41
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 56/122 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 54.0% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 33.5% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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