Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

NZ Herald Digipoll December 2013

January 5, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 656 had a party preference

Dates: 09 to 17 December 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 46.8% (+3.1%)
  • Labour 35.4% (-2.3%)
  • Green 10.8% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.7% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 44
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 59/123 -three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Key 61.9% (+6.1%)
  • Cunliffe 16.5% (-0.3%)
  • Peters 7.3% (+1.1%)
  • Norman 3.4% (-0.3%)

Pike River

  • Shareholders should pay compensation 64.4%
  • Government should pay compensation 19.8%

GST

  • Should be charged on all overseas purchases 40%
  • Current exemption level of $400 should remain 53%

Berms

  • Mowing berms responsibility of householder 60%
  • Mowing berms responsibility of council 34%

Sex Education

  • 75% say should teach more than the physical and medical aspects of sex

Fireworks

  • 39% want sale of fireworks banned
  • 60% happy with current rules

Speed limit

  • 67% support reducing tolerance to 4 km/hr
  • 29% against

Hauraki Gulf

  • Ban commercial fishing in Hauraki Gulf 53%
  • Support status quo 29%

Mining

  • 58% support oil, gas and mineral exploration
  • 38% against

Land sales

  • 55% support bill limiting land sales to foreigners

Drink Driving

  • 28% support that a BAC between 0.05 and 0.08 should be a criminal offence, with most supporting it being an infringement only.

Conservatives

  • 33% think Colin Craig’s views are too extreme
  • 24% say he is a welcome addition to political debates
  • 43% don’t know

Gender Quotas

  • 54% (52% of women) say Labour’s gender quota too restrictive
  • 38% (42% of women) say a good idea
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Te Tai Tokerau poll

November 12, 2013

Stuff reports:

The Te Karere-Digipoll asked voters when they choose their local MP which party would the candidate likely come from.

Labour had the edge with 32 per cent over Mana with 28 per cent.

A Maori party candidate would get 14 per cent, the survey found.

Harawira held the seat in 2011 with a 1165 majority over Labour’s Kelvin Davis.

The poll had Green and National candidates on 3 per cent each and NZ First on 2 per cent.

Another 18 per cent were either undecided or picked another option, but the pollsters did not provide a breakdown.

When it came to the party vote Labour was backed by 30 per cent, Mana by 19 per cent and the Maori Party 19 per cent

National scored 6 per cent, the Greens 8 per cent each and NZ First 3 per cent.

Fourteen per cent were undecided.

With undecideds taken out, Labour was on 35 per cent of the decided vote (34.7 per cent at the 2011 election), with Mana on 22 per cent (24.5 per cent in 2011) and Maori on 22 per cent (11.2 per cent in 2011). 

There was strong backing for Harawira’s performance as the local MP with 14 per cent rating it “fantastic”, 39 per cent above average and 31 per cent average.

Only 12 per cent rated it either below average or poor. 

The survey of 500 had a margin of error of 4.3 per cent.

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3 News Reid Research Poll November 2013

November 10, 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom approx 857 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.3%

Dates: approx 03 to 07 November 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3NewsPoll november 2013

Party Support

  • National 46.3% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 32.2% (+1.2%)
  • Green 10.4% (-1.6%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 1.2%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 4.2% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.8% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 42
  • Green 14
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on ACT losing Epsom and the Maori Party losing one seat.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 0 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 2 = 58/121 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 2 = 2/122

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.9% (-1.1%)
  • Cunliffe 10.8% (-1.3% from Shearer)
  • Peters 7.5% (+0.5%)
  • Norman 2.2% (+0.5%)

Leader Ratings

  • John Key – 58% well (+6%) and 28% poor (-4%) = 30% net positive (+10%)
  • David Cunliffe – 42% well (+16% from Shearer) and 25% poor (-19%) = 18% net positive (+35%)

KiwiAssure

  • 42% support a state insurer
  • 49% oppose it
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One News Colmar Brunton poll October 2013

October 29, 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,014 respondents of whom 820 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 19 to 23 October 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (nc)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.4% (+0.1%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 1.6% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)
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Fairfax Ipsos poll October 2013

October 28, 2013

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,030 of whom 815 have a party preference

Undecideds: 21.9%

Dates: 19 October 2013 to 23 October 2013

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 50.2% (+1.9%)
  • Labour 33.6% (+2.0%)
  • Green 10.7% (-1.6%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 43
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 56/124 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.5% (+1.2%)
  • Wrong 40.5% (-1.2%)

Government Rating

  • 5.6/10 (+0.4)

Time for a change

  • Yes 50.1% (+1.5%)
  • No 43.1% (+0.4%)

Leader Attributes:

  • Strong and effective PM – Key +25.2%
  • Trust on economy – Key +20.6%
  • Stable & united Government Key +19.5%
  • Create fair society – Cunliffe +3.3%
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Roy Morgan poll early October 2013

October 28, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 839 of whom 801 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.5%

Dates: 30 September 2013 to 13 October 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 41.5% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 37.0% (nc)
  • Green 12.5% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 50
  • Labour 44
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 50 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/122

On this poll NZ First could form a CL Government or NZ First and Maori Party could form a CR Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-4.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+2.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll late September 2013

October 27, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 934 of whom 887 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 16 September 2013 to 29 September 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 42.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 37.0% (+4.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-3.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 2.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 47
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 47 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 63/122 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll Labour could form a CL Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.0% (+6.5%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll September 2013

September 25, 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: approx 1,000 respondents of whom approx 860 had a voting preference

Undecideds: Dates: estimate 14 to 18 September 2013

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.6%)
  • United Future
  • Mana
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/124 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 60/124 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (-1.0% from Shearer)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)
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NZ Herald Digipoll September 2013

September 25, 2013

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 8.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 686 had a party preference

Dates: 17 to 23 September 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 43.7% (-5.1%)
  • Labour 37.7% (+6.8%)
  • Green 11.3% (+0.8%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (-0.7%)
  • Maori 0.8% (-1.0%)
  • United Future
  • ACT
  • Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 48
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 48 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 63/124 -the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-left Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.8% (-9.4%)
  • Cunliffe 16.8% +4.4% from Shearer)
  • Peters 6.2% (-0.2%)
  • Norman 3.7% (+0.1%)

Impact of Cunliffe win on Labour

  • More likely to vote Labour 20.4%
  • Less likely to vote Labour 14.4%
  • No difference 63.0%

Subsidies

  • Film production subsidies 64% approve, 32% disapprove
  • Tiwai Point subsidy 48% approve, 46% disapprove

Republic

  • 29% support
  • 60% opposition

Charter schools

  • 45% support
  • Slightly over half think  public money should be prioritised for public schools
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Roy Morgan poll early September 2013

September 22, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 828 of whom 778 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: 26 August 2013 to 08 September 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 41.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 32.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 5040
  • Labour 40
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 50 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First could form a CL Government or NZ First and Maori Party could form a CR Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.5% (-5.5%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (+5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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