Colmar Brunton on vote switching
August 12, 2014
Colmar Brunton have published a summary of how people who voted in 2011 are voting today
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TVNZ Q+A Colmar Brunton poll in Epsom
August 10, 2014
One News reports:
Colmar Brunton Epsom poll results:
Who would you vote for with your electorate vote?
National Paul Goldsmith 44%
Act David Seymour 32%
Labour Michael Wood 10%
Green Julie Anne Genter 9%
Conservative Christine Rankin 4%
Internet Mana Pat O’Dea 0.8%
Independent Grace Haden 0.3%
Don’t know 8%Were you aware John key is encouraging National Party supporters to give their electorate vote to the Act Party candidate?
Yes 70%
No 28%
Don’t know 2%With this in mind, who would you now vote for with your electorate vote?
National Paul Goldsmith 31%
Act David Seymour 45%
Labour Michael Wood 9%
Green Julie Anne Genter 10%
Conservative Christine Rankin 4%
Internet Mana Pat O’Dea .08%
Independent Grace Haden 0.1%
Don’t know 13%Do you support or oppose arrangements like the one John Key has made with the Act Party in Epsom?
Support 47%
Oppose 37%
Don’t know 16%Which political party would you vote for?
National 60%
Green 16%
Labour 14%
NZ First 3.3%
Act 2.7%
Conservative 2.1%
Internet Mana 1.5%
Maori 0.6%
Don’t know 6%
Roy Morgan poll late July 2014
August 3, 2014
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 818 of whom 765 have a party preference
Undecideds: 5.5%
Dates: 14 July to 27 July 2014
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan
Party Support
- National 46.0% (-5.0%)
- Labour 30.0% (+6.5%)
- Green 12.0% (-3.0%)
- NZ First 5.0% (-1.0%)
- Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
- United Future 0.5% (nc)
- ACT 0.5% (nc)
- Mana/Internet 2.5% (+1.0%)
- Conservative 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 56
- Labour 36
- Green 15
- ACT 1
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- Mana/Internet 3
- NZ First 6
- Total 121
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/121
On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First while Labour (plus Greens/Mana) could only govern if both NZ First and the Maori Party supported them.
Country Direction
- Right 60.0% (-5.5%)
- Wrong 25.0% (+2.0)
- Can’t Say 15.0% (+3.5%)
One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2014
July 29, 2014
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 828 had a voting preference
Undecideds: 10%
Dates: 19 to 23 July 2014
Client: One News
Report: Colmar Brunton
Party Support
- National 52.0% (+2.0%)
- Labour 28.0% (-1.0%)
- Green 10.0% (-2.0%)
- ACT 0.8% (+0.1%)
- Maori 0.6% (-0.6%)
- United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
- Mana/Internet 2.0% (-0.3%)
- NZ First 4.4% (+0.6%)
- Conservative 1.7% (+0.7%)
Projected Seats
- National 66
- Labour 36
- Green 13
- ACT 1
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- Mana/Internet 3
- NZ First 0
- Conservative 0
- Internet 0
- Total 123
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 3 = 52/123 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
- C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123
On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.
Preferred PM
- John Key 48% (+1.0%)
- David Cunliffe 8% (-2%)
- Winston Peters 3% (+1.0%)
NZ Herald Digipoll July 2014
July 26, 2014
Polling Company: DigiPoll
Poll Method: Random Phone
Undecideds: 11.5%
Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 664 had a party preference
Dates: 10 to 17 July 2014
Client: NZ Herald
Report: NZ Herald
Party Support
- National 54.9% (+4.5%)
- Labour 26.5% (-4.0%)
- Green 9.9% (-0.8%)
- NZ First 4.6% (+1.0%)
- Maori 0.5% (-0.3%)
- United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
- ACT 0.0% (-0.7%)
- Mana/Internet 2.2% (+0.8%)
- Conservative 1.2% (-0.3%)
Projected Seats
- National 69
- Labour 34
- Green 13
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- ACT 1
- Mana/Internet 3
- NZ First 0
- Total 124
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 34 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 3 = 49/124 -14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124
On this poll, National would form the Government.
Preferred PM
- Key 73.3% (+7.4%)
- Cunliffe 10.5% (-2.2%)
- Peters 5.5% (-0.7%)
- Norman 2.0% (-0.5%)
Fat Tax
- 55% support a fat tax on sugar-high food
- 43% oppose
Healthy Star Ratings
- 82% support introduction
Education
- 61% want money spent on improving teaching standards
- 35% on reducing class sizes
School Donations
- 52% support Labour policy of $100 per student funding if they do not ask for a donation
- 37% say it is unfair
Cunliffe man apology
- 42% say was silly and showed poor judgement
- 45% say unusual way to make point about domestic violence
Auckland Council
- 43% of Aucklanders want staff and salary cuts for Auckland Council
- 20% support rates going up more than 2.5%
- 19% support delaying the City Rail Link
- 9% support reducing services
Fairfax Ipsos poll July 2014
July 17, 2014
Polling Company: Ipsos Poll Method: Random Phone Poll Size: 1024 respondents of whom 823 have a party preference Undecideds: 15.3% Dates: Client: Fairfax Report: Stuff Party Support
- National 54.8% (-1.7%)
- Labour 24.9% (+1.7%)
- Green 12.4% (+0.5%)
- NZ First 2.6% (-0.6%)
- Maori 0.9% (+0.2%)
- United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
- ACT 0.1% (-0.6%)
- Mana 1.2% (nc)
- Conservative 1.3% (+0.4%)
Projected Seats
- National 69
- Labour 32
- Green 16
- ACT 1
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- Mana 2
- NZ First 0
- Total 124
This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options
- CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana 2 = 50/124 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124
On this poll a centre-right government would be formed. Preferred PM
- John Key 58.2% (+4.9%)
- David Cunliffe 14.2% (+2.3%)
- Winston Peters
- Russel Norman
Time for a Change of Government
- Yes 41.1% (-2.7%)
- No 51.3% (+3.3%)
Leadership Changes
- Labour would gain 15.2% and lose 1.7% for a net gain of 13.6% if David Cunliffe is not leader
- National would gain 12.4% and lose 5.3% for a net gain of 7.1% if John Key is not leader
NZ First Coalition preferences
- Expect National 32.1%
- Expect Labour 29.2%
- Neither 20.2%
- Don’t Know 18.9%
Transport
- 30% say focus should be public transport
- 24% say roads
- 40% say both
- 57% say Government doing enough to ease traffic jams
Roy Morgan poll early July 2014
July 16, 2014
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 819 of whom 774 have a party preference
Undecideds: 5.5%
Dates: 30 June to 13 July 2014
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan
Party Support
- National 51.0% (+3.0%)
- Labour 23.5% (-4.5%)
- Green 15.0% (+3.0%)
- NZ First 6.0% (+0.5%)
- Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
- United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
- ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
- Mana/Internet 1.5% (-1.0%)
- Conservative 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 62
- Labour 28
- Green 18
- ACT 1
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- Mana/Internet 2
- NZ First 7
- Total 122
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 28 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 2 = 48/122 – fourteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/122
On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) would form a Government.
Country Direction
- Right 65.5% (+0.5%)
- Wrong 23.0% (-0.5)
- Can’t Say 11.5% (nc)
Roy Morgan poll late June 2014
July 6, 2014
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 817 of whom 772 have a party preference
Undecideds: 5.5%
Dates: 16 June to 29 June 2014
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan
Party Support
- National 48.0% (-1.5%)
- Labour 28.0% (nc)
- Green 12.0% (nc)
- NZ First 5.5% (+1.5%)
- Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
- Mana/Internet 2.5% (nc)
- Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)
Projected Seats
- National 58
- Labour 34
- Green 15
- ACT 1
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- Mana/Internet 3
- NZ First 7
- Total 122
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/122
On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could form a Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First OR Labour could form a Government with both the Maori Party and NZ First (and Greens and NZ First).
Country Direction
- Right 65.0% (+1.5%)
- Wrong 23.5% (-0.5)
- Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.0%)
One News Colmar Brunton poll June 2014
June 29, 2014
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,002 respondents, of whom 813 had a voting preference
Undecideds: 15%
Dates: 21 to 25 June 2014
Client: One News
Report: Colmar Brunton
Party Support
- National 50.0% (-1.0%)
- Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
- Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
- ACT 0.7% (-0.1%)
- Maori 1.2% (+0.4%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- Mana/Internet 2.3% (+1.2%)
- NZ First 3.8% (-1.0%)
- Conservative 1.0% (-0.3%)
Projected Seats
- National 64
- Labour 36
- Green 15
- ACT 1
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- Mana/Internet 3
- NZ First 0
- Conservative 0
- Internet 0
- Total 123
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/123 – eight fewer than minimum needed to govern
- C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123
On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.
Preferred PM
- John Key 47% (+4.0%)
- David Cunliffe 10% (nc)
- Winston Peters 2% (-4.0%)
Coalitions
- 75% say parties should declare before election day who they would work with
- 19% disagree
Team NZ
- 62% say Team NZ should rely on private sponsorship from now on
- 30% say the Government should give Team NZ more money
3 News Reid Research poll June 2014
June 26, 2014
Polling Company: Reid Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)
Undecideds:
Dates: June 2014
Client: 3 News
Party Support
- National 49.7% (-0.6%)
- Labour 27.2% (-2.2%)
- Green 12.7% (+2.5%)
- ACT 0.4% (-0.2%)
- Maori 1.5% (+0.9%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- Mana/Internet 1.8% (+1.0%)
- NZ First 3.6% (-2.0%)
- Conservative 2.8% (+0.5%)
Projected Seats
- National 64
- Labour 35
- Green 16
- ACT 1
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- Mana 2
- NZ First 0
- Total 122
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 36 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/122 – eight fewer than minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 0/124
On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.
Preferred PM
- Key 46.7% (+0.4%)
- Cunliffe 9.6% (-0.2%)