Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan poll late August 2014

September 3, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 762 of whom 735 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 18 August to 31 August 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 16.0% (+4.5%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • Conservative 3.5% (+2.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 33
  • Green 20
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/123 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 20 + Mana/Internet 1 = 54/123 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/123

On this poll NZ First would have the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.0% (-2.5%)
  • Wrong 25.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+2.0%)

 

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One News Colmar Brunton poll late August 2014

September 2, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 843 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 23 to 27 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2.0%
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.6% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 1.6% (-2.3%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 3.2% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 35
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 8
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/123 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/124

On this poll National could form a centre-right Governmentwith either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could form a Government with both NZ First and Maori Party (and Greens and Internet Mana).

Preferred PM

  • John Key 47% (+2.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 56% (+8%)
  • Worse 19% (-3%)
  • Same 25% (-5%)

Hager book

  • Believe allegations 41% (+13%)
  • Not believe 35% (-8%)
  • Unsure 24% (-5%)
  • Net negatively influenced view of National 13% (+8%)
  • Collins should stand down 61% agree, 26% disagree
  • Key informed of SIS OIA released – 41% believe he was not, 44% do not believe him

 

 

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Fairfax Ipsos poll late August 2014

August 29, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.5%

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (-4.3%)
  • Labour 26.1% (+3.6%)
  • Green 11.8% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 2.2% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 2.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 52/123 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 55.0% (-4.5%)
  • David Cunliffe 17.9% (+3.8%)

Dirty Politics

  • 30% say all parties do it
  • 28% say National worst
  • 17% Internet-Mana
  • 17% Labour
  • 47% say book damages John Key, 43% disagree
  • 8% say it has led them to change their vote
  • 55% say all politicians play “dirty”
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NZ Herald Digipoll late August 2014

August 28, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 7.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 691 had a party preference

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.7% (+0.7%)
  • Labour 24.1% (-1.1%)
  • Green 11.4% (-1.7%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.7%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.4% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 3.3% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 31
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 4
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 49/124 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 67.8% (+3.0%)
  • Cunliffe 11.6% (-3.0%)
  • Peters 8.2% (+3.1%)
  • Norman 3.8% (+0.3%)

 Judith Collins

  • Should resign 46%
  • Should not resign 46%

Dirty Politics book

  • 53% say media coverage justified
  • 30% say not
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Te Tai Hauāuru poll August 2014

August 27, 2014

Reid Research have done a 500 person poll of Te Tai Hauāuru for Maori TV. Key results are:

Party Vote

  • Labour 36% (-6% from election)
  • Maori Party 23% (+2%)
  • National 12% (+4%)
  • Greens 11% (nc)
  • Internet Mana 11% (+3%)
  • NZ First 7% (-1%)

Electorate Vote

  • Maori Party 32% (-16%)
  • Labour 29% (-1%)
  • Greens 11% (nc)
  • Mana 10% (+1%)

Most important issues (rated 6/10 or higher)

  • Family violence 96%
  • Education 95%
  • Child poverty 95%
  • Cost of living 93%
  • Te Reo Maori 93%
  • Maori unemployment 90%
  • Housing 87%
  • Maori Leadership 81%
  • Mining 62%

If Maori Party balance of power

  • Prefer Labour 63%
  • Prefer National 24%

If National wins, Should Maori Party work with them?

  • Yes 67%
  • No 27%
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3 News Reid Research poll late August 2014

August 27, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 20 to 25 August 2014 approx

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 26.3% (-2.6%)
  • Green 13.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.3% (nc)
  • Maori 0.7%  (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 6.3% (+1.7%)
  • Conservative 4.6% (+2.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/123 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 3 = 53/123 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/123

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

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Te Tai Tonga poll

August 27, 2014

Maori TV have a poll of Te Tai Tonga.

Party Vote:

  • Labour 43% (+4% from election)
  • National 17% (+2%)
  • Maori Party 16% (+2%)
  • Greens 10% (-6%)
  • NZ First 8% (-1%)
  • Internet Mana 6% (nc)

Electorate Vote

  • Labour 48% (+7%)
  • Maori Party 17% (-15%) (Note new candidate, in 2011 candidate was incumbent MP)
  • Greens 9% (-6%)
  • Mana 9% (+1%)

Annoying the news report does not say who did the poll, or the sample size, which is essential to include in any report.

UPDATE: The video does have details thought. It was done by Reid Research and the margin of error suggest around 500 responses.

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NZ Herald DigiPoll mid August 2014

August 22, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 656 had a party preference

Dates: 14 to 20 August 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-4.9%)
  • Labour 25.2% (-1.3%)
  • Green 13.7% (+3.8%)
  • NZ First 4.7% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.6%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.1% (-0.1%)
  • Conservative 2.6% (+1.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 32
  • Green 18
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 3 = 53/124 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 64.8% (-8.5%)
  • Cunliffe 14.6% (+4.1%)
  • Peters 5.1% (-0.4%)
  • Norman 3.5% (+1.5%)

Leader Approval

  • John Key – 59.6% approve and 16.6% disapprove = +43.0% net approval
  • David Cunliffe – 19.2% approve and 31.9% disapprove = -12.7% net approval

Hager Book

  • 11% say it will cause a lot of damage
  • 43% little damage
  • 25% no damage

Farm Sales to Foreigners

  • 13% no restrictions
  • 33% ban
  • 50%+ approve if it brings advantages such as jobs

Referenda

  • 66% say referenda should be binding on the Government
  • 22% disagree
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Roy Morgan poll early August 2014

August 20, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 809 of whom 756 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 4 August to 17 August 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 27.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 34
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 3 = 51/122 – eleven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/121

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First while Labour (plus Greens/Mana) could only govern if both NZ First and the Maori Party supported them.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-3.0%)

 

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Fairfax Ipsos poll August 2014

August 15, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1007 respondents of whom 854 have a party preference

Undecideds: 15.4%

Dates:Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 55.1% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 22.5% (-2.4%)
  • Green 11.3% (-1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.4% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 2.1% (+0.9%)
  • Conservative 3.4% (+2.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 29
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/124 – 11 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 47/124 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 59.5% (+1.3%)
  • David Cunliffe 14.1% (-0.1%)

Country Direction

  • Right 65.4% (+1.3%)
  • Wrong 33.5% (-0.6%)

Foreign Ownership

  • 74% say should be harder for foreign investors to buy large farmland
  • 24% disagree
  • 53% say too much farmland has been sold
  • 41% disagree
  • 64% say NZ benefits from more foreign investment
  • 31% disagree

Political Donations

  • Reveal identity of all donors to political parties 68% agree
  • 31% disagree

Government Approval

  • 6.0/10 (no change

Time for change of Government

  • Yes 40% (-1%)
  • No 50% (-1%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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