Archives: NZ Issues Polls

A poll by Curia for Family First found:

  • 23% agree it should be a criminal offence for a parent to give their child a smack that is reasonable and for the purpose of correction
  • 72% disagree
  • 65% said regardless of the law they would smack their child to correct their behaviour if they thought it was reasonable
  • 28% said they would not

National Leadership poll

December 6, 2016

A Fairfax Nielsen poll finds the following support to replace John Key as Leader and Prime Minister:

  • Don’t Know 39%
  • Bill English 37%
  • Steven Joyce 6%
  • Judith Collins 4%
  • Paula Bennett 4%
  • Amy Adams 3%
  • Other 6%

Also in terms of impact on voting National:

  • 9% now more likely to vote National
  • 16% less likely

And in terms of election timing:

  • 61% no early election
  • 17% as soon as possible
  • 13% within six months

UMR poll on Scott Watson

November 27, 2016

The Herald reports:

GUILTY
2002: 59%
2016: 23%
NOT GUILTY
2002: 15%
2016: 29%
UNSURE
2002: 26%
2016: 48%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,010 voters of whom 839 have a party preference

Undecideds: 16%

Dates: 12 November to 23 November 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+2%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2%)
  • Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.2% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 34
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 13 = 47/122 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 36.0% (-2%)
  • Andrew Little 8% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 8% (-3%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 43% (-2%)
  • Same 24% (nc)
  • Worse 33% (+2%)

Foreign property tax

  • Support a 15% tax on foreign house buyers in Auckland 75%
  • Oppose 18%

Plastic bag levy

  • Support a 15c per bag levy 78%
  • Oppose 19%

Surplus 2016

  • Increase spending 48%
  • Reduce debt 31%
  • Reduce taxes 17%

ResearchNZ polled 500 people on euthanasia:

Suppose a person has a painful, incurable disease. Do you think that doctors should be allowed by law to end the patient’s life, if the patient requests it?

  • Yes 65% (-2% from July 2015)
  • No 22% (-2%)
  • Don’t Know 13% (+4%)

Still thinking of that person with a painful, incurable disease, do you think that someone else, such as a close relative, should be allowed by law to help end the patient’s life, if the patient requests it?

  • Yes 43% (-1%)
  • No 46% (-2%)
  • Don’t Know 11% (+3%)

Ipsos poll on immigration

October 2, 2016

Ipsos did a poll on immigration issues in multiple countries including 505 adults in NZ.

Findings include:

  • 48% say housing affordability is one of top two issues
  • 47% say immigration has been positive for NZ, 31% negative
  • A net 52% agree immigration should be targeted at professions with shortages
  • A net 48% say refugees can become highly valued contributors to society
  • A net 35% say immigration has made NZ a more interesting place to live
  • A net 28% say immigration is good for the economy
  • A net 30% agree immigration has placed too much pressure on public services
  • A net 15% are confident most refugees will integrate
  • A net 12% say immigration has made it harder for those here to get jobs
  • A net 10% say there are too many immigrants in NZ
  • A net 10% say terrorists who pretend to be refugees will enter NZ
  • A net 7% say immigrants are often better workers than those already here
  • A net -15% want an increase in the number of refugees
  • A net -35% say the number of immigrants who can move here should increase
  • A net -40% want no refugees accepted at all
  • 48% of NZers think Brexit was wrong decision for the UK and 32% right decision

The full results are here – ipsos-new-zealand-immigration-refugees-and-brexit-survey-report-2016

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,013 voters of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 03 September to 09 September 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (nc)
  • Labour 26.0% (-3%)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (+2.0%)
  • Maori 1.8% (+1.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.3% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 31
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 13
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 15 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 13 + Maori 2 = 15/122

On this poll National (plus ACT and United) could govern with the Maori Party.  Labour could govern with Greens, NZ First and Maori Party. The Maori Party would hold the effective balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 38.0% (-1%)
  • Andrew Little 10% (+3%)
  • Winston Peters 11% (-1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

 

Economy

  • Better 45% (+3%)
  • Worse 31% (-5%)

Immigration

  • Fewer migrants 38% (+11% from April)
  • Current numbers rights 44% (-7%)
  • More migrants 13% (-5%)

Housing

  • 53% say Government should take more action even if it reduces house values
  • 31% say more should be done but only if house values do not shrink
  • 11% say no more action needed

Republicanism poll

September 5, 2016

The Herald reports:

The poll asked 1,006 voting age New Zealanders and was taken during August.

The question was first asked in March 2014 and showed support starting at 44 per cent. By April 2015 it was up to 47 per cent.

The question asked “What is your preference for New Zealand’s next head of State?”, the results were:

• British monarch: 34%
• New Zealand head of State, parliamentary elected: 15%
• New Zealand head of State, directly elected: 44%
• Unsure/don’t know: 7%

 

UMR poll on medicinal cannabis

September 1, 2016

Stuff reports:

Of those who responded, 76 per cent agreed New Zealand laws should be changed so patients had safe and legal access to medicinal cannabis products prescribed by licensed doctors.

Just 12 per cent answered were opposed, while another 12 per cent were undecided.

The poll showed a 4 per cent rise in support for law reform since UMR’s last poll on the issue in January.

Auckland University of Technology psychology and public health professor Max Abbott said the numbers reflected a change in national opinion.

“It’s quite remarkable that only 12 per cent were opposed – this may be the lowest level of opposition ever found in a cannabis poll in New Zealand.”

A second question about whether natural cannabis products should be treated as herbal remedies when used therapeutically was supported by 61 per cent of respondents.

A further 24 per cent opposed the idea, and 15 per cent were undecided. 

 

UMR poll on house prices

August 23, 2016

Hive News reports:

But yesterday UMR released results of a poll that found 60% of Aucklanders and 55% of home owners would prefer that house prices either fell a bit or fell dramatically over the next year.

The poll of 1,000 New Zealanders over the age of 18 was taken from July 29 to August 17 through UMR’s online omnibus survey and found a total of 63% nationwide who would either prefer house prices to ‘fall but not too much’ (37%) or to fall dramatically (26%).

UMR, which conducts polls for the Labour, found 55% of home owners would prefer house prices to fall a bit (40%) or dramatically (15%).

The poll found 14% of respondents preferred house prices either kept rising rapidly (4%) or at a slower pace (10%), while 17% of Aucklanders wanted house prices to keep rising rapidly (4%) or at a slower pace (13%). A total of 15% of home owners wanted house prices to rise rapidly (2%) or at a slower pace (13%). There were 633 home owners and 331 Aucklanders who took the poll.

The poll also asked if there was a housing crisis at the moment and found that 81% of all respondents and 85% of Aucklanders thought there was a crisis, while 79% of home owners thought there was housing crisis. Fourteen per cent of those polled thought there was no crisis and 5% were unsure.

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