Archives: NZ Issues Polls

TV3 Poll April 2009

May 2, 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, 947 decided (3.2% and 3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 April to 21 April 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 6.1% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 2.1% (+0.9%)
  • Maori 2.9% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.3% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 37
  • Green 7
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 73/123 – 11 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 = 45/123 -17 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.Preferred PM

  • Key 51.1% (-0.9%)
  • Clark 11.5% (-2.3%)
  • Goff 9.1% (+5.4%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 80.2% (+1.2%) doing well vs 7.3% (+1.3%) doing poorly – net positive is 72.9% (-0.1%)
  • Goff  – 42.2% (-0.8%) doing well vs 28.3% (+1.3%) doing poorly – net positive is 13.9% (-2.1%)

Leadership Characteristics

  • capable leader – Key by 32%
  • good in a crisis – Key by 24%
  • sound judgement – Key by 20%
  • honest – Key by 13%
  • down to earth – Key by 9%
  • understands economic problems – Key by 22%
  • has a lot of personality – Key by 27%
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 2%
  • more style than substance – Key by 10%
  • talk down to people – Goff by 11%
  • narrow minded – Goff by 12%
  • inflexible – Goff by 11%
  • inexperienced – Key by 22%
  • out of touch  – Goff by 3%

Curia did a poll for BDO Spicers and Ideas Shop of 400 small and medium sized businesses.

BDO Spicers report on one aspect here, being the three biggest challenges facing SMEs. They were:

  1. Economy 37%
  2. Cash Flow 36%
  3. Attract and Retain talented staff 36%
  4. Reduced Sales 28%
  5. Red Tape 14%
  6. Staff Costs 13%
  7. Access to Capital 11%
  8. Higher input costs 11%
  9. Currency fluctuations 10%

It was interesting that despite increasing unemployment, there was still challenges in recruiting the right staff.

At Ideas Shop they have a report focusing more on the environmental, employment and charitable business practices of SMES:

  • Around 10% of SMES formally report on their sustainable business practices
  • 95% of SMEs undertake at least one environmentally sustainable business practice
  • 35% of SMEs offer wellness benefits such as counselling, fitness subsidies or independent financial advice
  • 93% of SMEs undertake at least one charitable activity
  • Time and money are the biggest barriers to incorporating further sustainable business practices

The Green Party engaged in a shoot the messenger exercise yesterday and attacked the integrity of the poll done by Curia for Family First on the law that amended Section 59 in 2007.

I’m not planning to respond to the sillyness of the Greens “revealing” I worked in Parliament for National for eight years, as this revelation is on Kiwiblog and known to almost every political commentator in NZ.And anyway I try and keep the silly politics over on Kiwiblog. Curiablog is about polling.

In the release from the Greens, they contrasted the Curia finding of 80% opposition to the 2007 law, with a UMR poll that found only 28% opposition. Now how is this possible many people will wonder?

I thought it would be useful to use this as a case study, to look at how important the order and wording of questions is. Often comparing one poll to another is comparing apples and oranges.

I should make clear that I regard both Curia (obviously as I own and manage it) and UMR as very good professional polling firms, and that any discussion of differences is to help public understanding.

The UMR poll details are here. They did their poll of 750 responses in July 2008 and it was released by their client (Office of the Commissioner of Children) a week after the election.

The first question in the UMR poll was “Should children be entitled to the same protection from assault as adults”.

Unsurprisingly that proposition gets 89% support. It is probably useful to note at this stage that respondents will often give answers to a survey which may appear to be contradictory. For example in NZES surveys, many people say they want to go back to FPP but they like having lots of parties in Parliament.

The second UMR question was

“Are you aware that the law about physical punishment of children was changed last year”

Then UMR asked respondents to rate theri support or opposition for the law change on a 0 to 10 scale.  Only those who responded 0 to 3 were included in the 28% marked as oppossed. Those in the 4 to 6 range were marked as neutral.

Note that as far as I can tell, the law change was not described to respondents. They were simply asked firstly if they were aware of the law change around “physical punishment” and if so, then what they thought of it.

Now you may have people who supported the law change as an improvement on the status quo, but also wanted an examption for light smacking to be maintained. There is a difference between generally asking support for an undescribed law and a specific provision of the law.

Interesting UMR also went on to ask if people agreed:

There are certain circumstances when it is alright for parents to use physical punishment with children

And UMR found 58% of respondents agreed with this statement and only 20% disagreed.

When you look at that finding, then it is worth looking at the Curia poll. The first question was:

In 2007, Parliament passed a law that removes a defence of reasonable force for parents who smack a child to correct their behaviour, but states the Police have discretion not to prosecute if they consider the offence was inconsequential. What is your view of this law?

And 25% said they strongly or somewhat agreed with the law and 65% said they strongly or somewhat disagreed with it. Now when you look at the UMR poll which says 58% said it is okay to physically punish your children sometimes and 20% said it was never okay – well the two polls can actually be seen to be quite close to each other.

There is rarely a definitely right or definitely wrong when it comes to framing questions. It depends on what you are trying to find out. The Curia poll was inquiring very specifically about whether light correctional smacking should be legal. The UMR poll for the Children’s Commissioner was inquiring more generally into attitudes around child disclipline.

Incidentially there will be a referendum in July on the issue of whether light correctional smacking should be legal. It will be interesting to observe the outcome.

Family First have released details of a poll done by Curia in March 2009 on the 2007 law change to s59 of the Crimes Act that removed the defence of reasonable force for correctional purposes. Key findings:

  • 83% said the law should be changed so it is not a criminal offence to lightly smack your child for correctional purposes
  • 77% say the law will not reduce the rate of child abuse
  • Only 31% understood that the law did not criminalise all smacking

Relationships

February 11, 2009

Colmar Brunton have done a survey of 500 people for the makers of K-Y. They found:

  • 25% of women say financial worries are affecting intimacy levels in their relationship
  • 19% of men say the same
  • In the 20 to 24 age group, it is 38%

Financial Optimism

February 10, 2009

Research NZ polled 500 people from 26 November to 3 December 2008 on their financial optimism.

  • 50% think things will be better over the next 12 months and 23% worse

Republicanism

February 10, 2009

Research NZ polled 500 people from 26 November to 3 Decmeber 2008 on republicanism.

  • 42% of NZers support NZ becoming a Republic, and 38% do not
  • 48% of men support a republic, compared to only 37% of women
  • Most under 40s support a republic while those over 60 are against 2:1
  • 45% wants Prince Charles to succeed the Queen and 43% Prince William
  • A net 13% of men want Charles and a net 9% of women want William

Job Security

February 10, 2009

Research NZ polled 500 people from 10 to 13 November 2008 on job security.

  • 73% of those in employment think their job is secure
  • Only 58% of those in households with income under $40K think their job is secure compared to 80% of those in households with over $70k income
  • 39% expect a pay rise in the next year, 58% do not

MMP

February 10, 2009

Research NZ polled 500 people from 10 to 13 November 2008 on MMP.

  • 53% support MMP (up 7% from Aug) and 35% FPP (down 6%) suggesting the election result has led to more people happier with MMP
  • 69% of under 30s support MMP but only 45% of over 60s, however MMP more popular than FPP in all age groups

Asian Immigrants

January 31, 2009

A Colmar Brunton survey of 1,000 NZers for the Asia NZ Foundation has found the following:

  • 75% of NZers said Asia was important to NZ’s future. 86% rated South Pacific as important, 67% Europe (incl UK), 55% North America, 24% Latin America and 12% Africa
  • 91% rate exports to Asia as positive, 89% Asian tourism to NZ, 73% FTAs with Asia countries, 80% Asian economic growth, 78% tourism to Asia, 58% imports from Asia, 62% Asian culture and traditions, 46% Asian population growth and 53% immigration from Asia to NZ
  • “Net positive” ratings for the above are 87% exports to Asia, 83% Asian tourism to NZ, 58% FTAs with Asia countries, 70% Asian economic growth, 72% tourism to Asia, 33% imports from Asia, 48% Asian culture and traditions,14% Asian population growth and 27% immigration from Asia to NZ
  • The countries that people associate with Asia are China 86%, Japan 62%, Korea 46%, Thailand 30%, India 30%, Malaysia 28% etc
  • Personal contact with Asian peoples is 19% a lot, 39% a fair amount, 28% not much, and 14% hardly anything.
  • Women and higher socio-economic NZers are more likely to have personal contact with Asians
  • 89% have contact with Asians through shopping, 67% through their work, 71% through friends, 63% through their neighbourhood community, 61% through school, 53% through clubs, 33% through sports, 29% through marriage, 32% through Asian events and 26% through religion.
  • On a warmth scale fo 0 to 100, NZers rate people from India as 70 (in Australia 57), from Japan 73 (64) and China 69 (56). Warmth is highest amongst those people who actually have a lot of contact with people from Asia.
  • 85% think Asian immigrants contribute to our economy, 82% that they bring valuable cultural diversity, and 64% that they improve workplace productivity
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