Archives: NZ Issues Polls

Pauline Colmar Poll on Crime issues

August 16, 2011

Pauline Colmar did a poll for the Sensible Sentencing Trust in May 2011 of 1,000 people. Findings:

  • 73% think prison sentences for violent crimes, (such as murder and rape), are too short with only 2% thinking they are too long
  • 61% think punishments given in New Zealand for Youth Offending, (such as graffiti, vandalism and petty theft), are too soft and only 2% think they are too hard
  • 86% think that if a person commits three crimes and is sentenced to one year prison for each crime, that their total sentence should be for 3 years; just 9% think the sentence should be for 1 year
  • 71% think DNA should be recorded for people arrested and 24% think not
  • Additionally, 65% think that the level of violent crime in New Zealand is getting worse and only 4% that it is getting better. 26% consider the level to be about the same.
  • The Sensible Sentencing Trust has high awareness with 65% of all New Zealanders 15+ years having heard of the Trust.

 

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NZ Herald Digipoll July 2011

July 31, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 666 had a party vote preference

Dates: 19 to 27 July 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 52.3% (+1.1%)
  • Labour 33.1% (-3.0%)
  • Green 8.3% (+1.7%)
  • NZ First 0.9% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.4% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.6% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/124 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 10 + Mana 1 = 52/124 -10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.3% (-0.3%)
  • Goff 9.3% (-2.6%)
  • Peters 2.9% (-2.5%)
  • Clark 7.9% (+3.8%)

Direction

  • Right 57.5%
  • Wrong 33.8%
  • Unsure 8.7%

Capital Gains Tax

  • Strongly favour 16.5%
  • Moderately favour 21.4%
  • No opinion 22.8%
  • Moderately against 16%
  • Strongly against 21.5%
  • More likely to vote Labour 22.1%
  • Less likely to vote Labour 14.4%
  • No difference 61.3%
Asset Sales
  • Strongly favour 7.2%
  • Moderately favour 19.8%
  • No opinion 15.5%
  • Moderately against 22.1%
  • Strongly against 34.5%
Debt Repayment Preferences
  • CGT 43.1%
  • Asset part-sales 34.4%
SAS in Afghanistan
  • Remain beyond March 2012 23.1%
  • Withdraw as scheduled 63.3%

Maori

  • Too much say 42.2%
  • Too little say 13.2%
  • About the right amount 39.8%
Women paid less because they are women
  • Yes 54.2%
  • No 36.4%
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Fairfax Research International Poll July 2011

July 31, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 860 had a party preference

Dates: 21 to 25 July 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.0%
  • Labour 29.0%
  • Green 6.4%
  • ACT 2.2%
  • Maori 1.2%
  • United Future <1%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 2.0%

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 36
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 75/121 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 8 + Mana 1= 45/121 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53%
  • Phil Goff 6.2%
  • Winston Peters 2.5%

Preferred Coalition Partners

  • Greens 25%
  • ACT 18%
  • Maori 11%
  • Labour 8.2%
  • National 5.5%
  • NZ First 2.7%
  • United Future 1.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
Best plan to fix the economy
  • National 49%
  • Labour 17%
  • Green 1.5%
  • ACT 1.8%
  • Maori 0.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 0.4%
Issues important to voting decisions
  1. Health and education 90%
  2. Economy 84%
  3. Law & Order 83%
  4. Cost of living 83%
  5. Rebuilding Christchurch 75%
  6. Environment 72%
  7. Social Welfare 65%
  8. Superannuation/KiwiSaver 64%
  9. SOEs 60%
  10. Taxes 59%
  11. Immigration 47%
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NZ Herald Digipoll June 2011

July 3, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 22 to 28 June 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald and NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 51.2% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 36.1% (+2.4%)
  • Green 6.6% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 1.2% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.7% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.9% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 44
  • Green 8
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 8 + Mana 1 = 53/124 -9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.6% (+2.9%)
  • Goff
  • Peters
  • Clark

Drinking Age

  • 58.6% want a 20/20 age for on and off-licenses
  • 25.7% want an 18 age for on-licenses and 20 for off-licenses
  • 14.5% want an 18/18 age for on and off-licenses
  • 80% support making it an offence to supply alcohol to an under 18 year old without the consent of their parents, with 18.5% against

Rugby World Cup

  • 59.2% say most important thing is visitors have a great time in NZ
  • 36.6% say most important thing is the All Blacks win
Welfare
  • 10% support sole parents on welfare having to seek work when youngest child is three
  • 32% support work testing at age five
  • 54% support work testing at age six
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll May 2011

May 29, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Around 1,000

Dates: to 21 to 25 May 2011

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.2%)
  • Maori 1.4% (-0.9%)
  • United Future ?
  • Mana 0.9%
  • NZ First 1.6% (-2.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 42
  • Green 7
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 7 + Mana 1= 50/123 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53% (-2%)
  • Phil Goff 8% (-3%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 48% (+10%)
  • Worse 33% (-12%)
Budget
  • 4% feel better off, 62% the same and 29% worse off
  • 42% support KiwiSaver changes, 50% opposed
  • 31% say Budget will improve economy, 41% no change and 20% will be negative for economy
Racism
  • 21% say NZ has a great deal of racism
  • 55% say some racism
  • 20% say only a little racism
  • 3% say no racism
Maori Rights
  • 45% say Maori have more rights than other New Zealanders
  • 48% say the same rights
  • 6% say less rights
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Herald Digipoll May 2011

May 29, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 19 to 25 May 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald and NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 54.4% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 33.7% (-3.5%)
  • Green 5.5% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.7% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.7% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.0%

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 42
  • Green 7
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 7 + Mana 1 = 50/124 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 67.1% (+14.6%)
  • Goff 11.9% (+4.2%)
  • Peters 5.4% (+2.1%)
  • Clark 4.1% (-1.5%)

Leader Ratings

  • Phil Goff – 22.2% above average, 40.4% average, 33.05 below average

KiwiSaver

  • 40.0% approved of changes to KiwiSaver in Budget
  • 48..3% disapprove

Financial situation

  • 9.2% say their financial situation has improved
  • 50.1% say their financial situation is much the same

Asset Sales

  • 29.5% approved of partial SOE sales to raise $7b
  • 62.4% disapprove

Minor Parties

  • 11% believe a Don Brash-led Act Party in coalition with National would leave New Zealand better off
  • 47.3% believe a Don Brash-led Act Party in coalition with National would leave New Zealand worse off
  • 60% say Maori Party is a positive force for Maori voters

Superannuation

  • 52.3% think the age of eligibility for superannuation should be discussed now
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Firearms law poll

October 19, 2010

Research NZ polled 500 NZers from 14 to 22 September:

  • 83% support registration of individual firearms, with 15% against
  • 25% support the sale of semi-automatic guns and 72% want them banned
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Foreign Investment Poll by ResearchNZ

October 19, 2010

ResearchNZ polled 500 NZers from 14 to 22 September 2010:

  • 41% support overseas businesses being able to buy or invest in NZ farmland, and 53% are against
  • 53% of those aged under 35 are in favour but only 29% of those aged over 55
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TV3 Poll early October 2010

October 16, 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 863 have a party preference, (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 27 September to 06 October 2010

Client: TV3

Report:

Party Support

  • National 53.8% (-0.7%)
  • Labour 32.6% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.6% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-1.3%)
  • Maori 2.4%  (+0.9%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.2% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 40
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 9 = 49/124 -13 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.6% (+1.9%)
  • Clark 3.7% (+1.4%)
  • Goff 8.8% (+1.4%)
  • Peters 3.4% (-0.3%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 75.9% (+6.0%) doing well vs 11.9% (-4.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.0% (+10.0%%)
  • Goff  – 34.2% (+3.3%) doing well vs 41.9% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -7.7% (+5.3%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 18% (-2%)
  • down to earth – Key by 13% (+1%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 26% (+3%)
  • has personality – Key by 46% (nc)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-2%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 3% (-10%)
  • out of touch – Key by 0% (-4%)

Auckland Mayoralty (500 sample)

  • 56% Brown
  • 34% Banks
Rodney Hide
  • 23% say he should stay as ACT leader
  • 35% say he should step down
  • 36% say he should resign from Parliament

Act Leadership

  • 30% want Heather Roy (of those who did not say Hide should stay)
  • 17% Roger Douglas
  • 11% John Boscawen
  • 42% None

 

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90 days trial period poll

September 20, 2010

UMR did a poll on behalf of the CTU of 750 NZers from 9 to 12 September 2010. The question was:

Do you think that all employees should have the right to appeal if they think they have been unfairly dismissed, even if their dismissal was during the first 90 days of their employment?

80% said yes, and 18% no.

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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