Manawatu MMP poll
November 1, 2011
A Manawatu Standard/Versus Research poll of 400 voters showed 53 per cent of voters wanted to keep MMP, 25 per cent preferred First Past the Post, while 21 per cent did not know.
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NZ Herald Digipoll October 2011
October 29, 2011
Polling Company: DigiPoll
Poll Method: Random Phone
Undecideds: 10.6%
Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 671 had a party vote preference
Dates: 20 to 27 October 2011
Client: NZ Herald
Report: NZ Herald
Party Support
- National 53.5% (+1.5%)
- Labour 30.3% (-1.2%)
- Green 9.5% (-0.3%)
- NZ First 2.8% (+0.4%)
- Maori 1.2% (-0.6%)
- United Future 0.1% (nc)
- ACT 1.5% (+0.3%)
- Mana 0.1% (-0.1%)
Projected Seats
- National 67
- Labour 38
- Green 12
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- ACT 2
- Mana 1
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Te Tai Tonga.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 51/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- Key 70.6% (+0.9%)
- Goff 13.7% (+2.2%)
- Peters 3.5% (-1.7%)
Direction
- Right 59.0% (-0.5%)
- Wrong 32.0% (-0.2%)
- Unsure 9.0% (+0.7%)
MMP
- Keep MMP 48%
- Change 15%
- Don’t Know 15%
Rugby World Cup
- 39% say McCaw should be knighted for winning RWC, 61% say no
- 57% say the RWC was a great event and worth spending $40m on
NZ view of other countries
October 24, 2011
UMR polled 750 NZers on their views of other countries.
The net positive ratings for each country were:
- Australia +66%
- Scotland +45%
- Wales +37%
- England +36%
- Japan +33%
- Germaany +33%
- Ireland +32%
- France +24%
- China +10%
- Brazil +9%
- India +6%
- USA +1%
- South Africa -8%
- Russia – 10%
- Greece -30%
- Pakistan -50%
Australia
- If Australia not playing NZ, 46% support Australia
- 33% support other country
- If RWC Final had been Australia v South Africa 63% support Australia and 25% South Africa
3 News Reid Research Poll September 2011
October 2, 2011
Polling Company: Reid Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)
Dates: assumed 22 September to 28 September 2011
Client: 3 News
Report:
Party Support
- National 57.4% (+3.4%)
- Labour 26.6% (-2.2%)
- Green 9.8% (+0.5%)
- ACT 1.6% (-0.6%)
- Maori 0.8% (-0.7%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- Mana 0.7% (-0.2%)
- NZ First 1.9% (-0.3%)
Projected Seats
- National 71
- Labour 33
- Green 12
- ACT 2
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/124 – 12 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
- CL – Labour 33 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 46/124 -16 less than minimum 63 needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- Key 54.5% (+1.5%)
- Goff 6.2% (-1.8%)
Leadership Approval
- Key – 76.2% (+1.3%) doing well vs 11.5% (-3.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.7% (+4.3%)
- Goff – 26.8% (+0.7%) doing well vs 49.1% (-3.4%) doing poorly – net positive is -22.3% (+4.1%)
Feeling after three years
- 24% say worse off from three years ago
- 19% better off
Greens
- 55% say Greens should accept a coalition deal with National if Key offers one
- 30% say they should not
- 60% of Green voters says Greens should accept and only 27% say no
- 63% of National voters say Greens should accept and only 25% say no
One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2011
October 2, 2011
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 858 had a party preference
Undecideds: 10%
Dates: 24 to 28 September 2011
Client: One News
Report: Colmar Brunton
Party Support
- National 56.0% (nc)
- Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
- Green 9.0% (+3.0%)
- ACT 1.3% (-0.4%)
- Maori 1.1% (-0.3%)
- United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
- Mana 0.6% (-0.3%)
- NZ First 1.9% (-0.4%)
Projected Seats
- National 69
- Labour 36
- Green 11
- ACT 2
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 48/122 -14 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- John Key 59% (+2%)
- Phil Goff 8% (nc)
- Winston Peters 2% (nc)
Economic Outlook
- Better 45% (-4%)
- Worse 35% (+5%)
- Same 20% (nc)
NZ doing good job of Rugby World Cup Hosting
- Yes 90%
- No 5%
Blame for RWC Opening Night Issues
- The Government 14%
- The Auckland Council 65%
- Neither 6%
- Other 8%
Knowledge of Date of General Election
- End of this year 77%
- Next year 11%
- Not announced yet 8%
- Unsure 4%
What outcome matters more
- Rugby World Cup 30%
- General Election 66%
Marae Digipoll September 2011
October 2, 2011
Marae Digipoll have done a poll of 1,000 Maori votes. 655 were from the Maori roll and 345 from the general roll.
The margin of errors are 3.2%, 3.9% and 5.4% respectively. The average no of respondents per Maori electorate is 94 which has a margin of error of 10.4%.
Party Vote – All Maori voters
- Labour 38.4%
- Maori 22.2%
- National 16.4%
- Mana 8.5%
- Green 6.5%
- NZ First 5.1%
- ACT 1.0%
Party Vote – General roll Maori voters
- Labour 43.5%
- Maori 11.7%
- National 22.4%
- Mana 1.6%
- Green 8.1%
- NZ First 7.1%
- ACT 2.9%
Party Vote – Maori roll Maori voters (2008 result in brackets)
- Labour 35.7% (50.1%)
- Maori 27.7% (28.9%)
- National 13.2% (7.4%)
- Mana 12.0%
- Green 5.6% (3.9%)
- NZ First 4.1% (6.1%)
- ACT 0.0% (0.5%)
Electorate Vote (all 7 electorates)
- Maori 37.5%
- Labour 35.1%
- Mana 13.8%
- National 5.6%
- Green 2.5%
- NZ First 2.5%
Te Tai Tokerau
- Labour 30.2%
- Mana 28.6%
- Maori 22.2%
Tamaki Makaurau
- Maori 46.1%
- Labour 30.4%
- Mana 15.7%
Waiariki
- Maori 59.3%
- Mana 18.7%
- Labour 8.8%
Te Tai Tonga
- Labour 41.4%%
- Maori 34.5%
- Mana 3.4%
Tainui
- Labour 58.8%%
- Maori 12.9%
- Mana 17.6%
Te Tai Hauauru
- Labour 40.3%%
- Maori 48.6%%
- Mana 1.4%
Ikaroa Rawhiti
- Labour 40.5%%
- Maori 31.6%
- NZ First 10.1%
- Mana 8.9%
With the high margin of error, one can work out the probability that a candidate in the seat is actually in the lead. They are:
- Te Tai Tokerau – Labour ahead with 58% probability
- Tamaki Makaurau – Maori Party ahead with 96% probability
- Waiariki – Maori Party ahead with 100% probability
- Te Tai Tonga – Labour ahead with 78% probability
- Tainui – Labour ahead with 1005 probability
- Te Tai Hauauru – Maori Party ahead with 80% probability
- Ikaroa Rawhiti – Labour ahead with 85% probability
Has Maori Party represented Maori well?
- Yes 56%
- No 34%
Support Maori Party decision to vote for Marine and Coastal Area Bill?
- Yes 54%
- No 28%
Accept Maori Party position that compromise worthwhile to ensure seat at Cabinet table?
- Yes 69%
- No 21%
Agree with Harawira that Maori Party lacks energy and candidates too old?
- Yes 35%
- No 54%
Should Shane Jones take over from Phil Goff as Labour Leader?
- Yes 47%
- No 31%
Has traditional voter support for Labour dropped?
- Yes 77%
- No 9%
Can Hone Harawira effectively lead Mana Party?
- Yes 55%
- No 35%
Which Maori MP best represents views of Maori?
- Pita Sharples 22%
- Tariana Turia 20%
- Hone Harawira 11%
- Winston Peters 3.8%
- Shane Jones 3.6%
Preferred PM
- John Key 33%
- Pita Sharples 7%
- Tariana Turia 4.8%
- Phil Goff 4.4%
- Hone Harawira 3.9%
- Winston Peters 3.7%
- Shane Jones 2.8%
Biggest events poll
September 22, 2011
The Herald on Sunday and Key Research asked 501 Aucklanders which of four events would have the greatest impact on their lives:
- Election 27.3%
- Rugby World Cup 26.3%
- Canterbury earthquakes 24.0%
- Auckland Supercity 13.6%
3 News Reid Research Poll August 2011
September 5, 2011
Polling Company: Reid Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)
Dates: assumed 13 August to 17 August 2011
Client: 3 News
Report:
Party Support
- National 54.0% (-1.1%)
- Labour 28.8% (-1.1%)
- Green 9.3% (+0.2%)
- ACT 2.2% (+0.5%)
- Maori 1.5% (+0.7%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
- NZ First 2.2% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 67
- Labour 36
- Green 11
- ACT 3
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 67 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 9 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
- CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 48/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- Key 53% (+2.5%)
- Goff 8% (+1.1%)
Leadership Approval
- Key – 74.9% (+2.8%) doing well vs 14.5% (+0.6%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.4% (+2.2%)
- Goff – 26.1% (+1.8%) doing well vs 52.5% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -26.4% (-0.9%)
Policy Preference
- 53% prefer a capital gains tax while 31% preferred partial asset sales
One News Colmar Brunton Poll August 2011
September 5, 2011
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,006, of whom 847 had a party preference
Undecideds: 11%
Dates: 13 to 17 August 2011
Client: One News
Report: Colmar Brunton
Party Support
- National 56.0% (+3.0%)
- Labour 30.0% (+3.0%)
- Green 6.0% (-4.0%)
- ACT 1.7% (-1.4%)
- Maori 1.4% (-1.6%)
- United Future 0.5% (+0.2%)
- Mana 0.9% (+0.4%)
- NZ First 2.3% (-0.1%)
Projected Seats
- National 69
- Labour 37
- Green 8
- ACT 2
- Maori 4
- United Future 1
- Mana 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 122
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/122 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 37 + Greens 8 + Mana 1= 46/122 -16 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- John Key 57% (+3%)
- Phil Goff 8% (-1%)
- Winston Peters 2% (-1%)
Economic Outlook
- Better 49% (-3%)
- Worse 31% (+3%)
- Same 19% (-1%)
Rugby World Cup
- Hosting cost of $40m is money well spent – 54% agree, 40% disagree
- 50% less likely to buy Adidas in future due to jersey prices
- 69% think All Blacks will win, 17% do not
Compulsory KiwiSaver
August 21, 2011
A UMR survey found 57% of respondents support KiwiSaver being made compulsory, but only 27% saying it should be compulsory for all adults, with the other 30% saying for working adults only.