Archives: NZ Issues Polls

UMR on foreign ownership

November 6, 2011

Stuff reports:

A UMR Research survey, commissioned by a North Island farmer group trying to buy the in-receivership Crafar dairy farms against a Chinese bid, showed 82 per cent of 500 respondents believed foreign ownership of farms and agriculture land was a “bad thing”. Only 10 per cent believed it a “good thing” and 8 per cent were unsure.

The online poll, which weighed and matched data with census data to ensure a nationally representative sample, also found Kiwis are not xenophobic in opposing a Crafar sale to the Chinese.

The main reasons given for not selling to foreign companies were to keep control of our primary resource, and so that Kiwis benefited from exports, not foreigners.

Though 81 per cent opposed Chinese companies being allowed to buy agricultural land, 76 per cent were against US buyers, 67 per cent did not want British companies buying, and Australia got a 54 per cent thumbs down.

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Herald Digipoll on gay adoption

November 2, 2011

The Herald reports:

A majority of voters support changing the law to allow gay couples to adopt children, according to the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey. …

More than half – 54.3 per cent – of the poll respondents said the law should be changed to allow gay couples to adopt children, 38 per cent disagreed, and 7.7 per cent did not know or refused to answer.

 

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Fairfax Research International Poll October 2011

November 2, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Dates: 27 to 31 October 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 52.6% (-1.7%)
  • Labour 31.3% (+3.2%)
  • Green 9.7% (-0.4%)
  • ACT 1.2% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Mana 1.1% (+0.9%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 + Mana 1= 52/124 -10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 52.8% (+1.8%)
  • Phil Goff 9.1% (+2.2%)
  • Winston Peters 3.0% (+0.2%)
Christchurch Earthquake Recover
  • 48% of Canterbury residents say decision making is too slow
  • 55% say they have had ample opportunity to contribute to CBD planning process
  • 60% say speed of demolition and rebuild of CBD has been as fast as expected
Govt handling of economy
  • 50.6% good
  • 30% not so sure
  • 15.7% poor
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Least Preferred PM

November 1, 2011

The Herald on Sunday reports:

Phil Goff might be the Labour Party’s chosen one – but it doesn’t look like anyone else wants him. After hundreds of polls asking who voters prefer as prime minister, the Herald on Sunday this week asked who they least wanted.

According to the Key Research poll of 1182 voters, the clear “winner” was Goff at 25.6 per cent. …

The Act leader polled second on 14.5 per cent and Mana Party leader Harawira was third on 13.2 per cent.

John Key, who polled fourth “worst” on 7.8 per cent, also refused to comment.

 

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HoS Key Research MMP Poll

November 1, 2011

According to a 1200-voter Key Research phone poll commissioned by the Herald on Sunday, regular voters are firmly behind MMP – three voters want to keep it for every two who want it dumped.

The Herald on Sunday poll finds 45 per cent of voters want to keep MMP and 28 per cent want it dropped. Only 1.2 per cent support SM, making it the least popular of the five systems that voters can choose from.

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Manawatu MMP poll

November 1, 2011

A Manawatu Standard/Versus Research poll of 400 voters showed 53 per cent of voters wanted to keep MMP, 25 per cent preferred First Past the Post, while 21 per cent did not know.

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NZ Herald Digipoll October 2011

October 29, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 10.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 671 had a party vote preference

Dates: 20 to 27 October 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 30.3% (-1.2%)
  • Green 9.5% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 38
  • Green 12
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 51/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.6% (+0.9%)
  • Goff 13.7% (+2.2%)
  • Peters 3.5% (-1.7%)

Direction

  • Right 59.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 32.0% (-0.2%)
  • Unsure 9.0% (+0.7%)

MMP

  • Keep MMP 48%
  • Change 15%
  • Don’t Know 15%

Rugby World Cup

  • 39% say McCaw should be knighted for winning RWC, 61% say no
  • 57% say the RWC was a great event and worth spending $40m on
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NZ view of other countries

October 24, 2011

UMR polled 750 NZers on their views of other countries.

The net positive ratings for each country were:

  1. Australia +66%
  2. Scotland +45%
  3. Wales +37%
  4. England +36%
  5. Japan +33%
  6. Germaany +33%
  7. Ireland +32%
  8. France +24%
  9. China +10%
  10. Brazil +9%
  11. India +6%
  12. USA +1%
  13. South Africa -8%
  14. Russia – 10%
  15. Greece -30%
  16. Pakistan -50%

Australia

  • If Australia not playing NZ, 46% support Australia
  • 33% support other country
  • If RWC Final had been Australia v South Africa 63% support Australia and 25% South Africa
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3 News Reid Research Poll September 2011

October 2, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 22 September to 28 September 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 57.4% (+3.4%)
  • Labour 26.6% (-2.2%)
  • Green 9.8% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.6% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 0.8%  (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 1.9% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 33
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/124 – 12 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 46/124 -16 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 54.5% (+1.5%)
  • Goff 6.2% (-1.8%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 76.2% (+1.3%) doing well vs 11.5% (-3.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.7% (+4.3%)
  • Goff  – 26.8% (+0.7%) doing well vs 49.1% (-3.4%) doing poorly – net positive is -22.3% (+4.1%)

Feeling after three years

  • 24% say worse off from three years ago
  • 19% better off

Greens

  • 55% say Greens should accept a coalition deal with National if Key offers one
  • 30% say they should not
  • 60% of Green voters says Greens should accept and only 27% say no
  • 63% of National voters say Greens should accept and only 25% say no
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2011

October 2, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 858 had a party preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 24 to 28 September 2011

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (nc)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (+3.0%)
  • ACT 1.3% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.1% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.6% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.9% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 36
  • Green 11
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 48/122 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 59% (+2%)
  • Phil Goff 8% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 2% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 45% (-4%)
  • Worse 35% (+5%)
  • Same 20% (nc)

NZ doing good job of Rugby World Cup Hosting

  • Yes 90%
  • No 5%

Blame for RWC Opening Night Issues

  • The Government 14%
  • The Auckland Council 65%
  • Neither 6%
  • Other 8%

Knowledge of Date of General Election

  • End of this year 77%
  • Next year 11%
  • Not announced yet 8%
  • Unsure 4%

What outcome matters more

  • Rugby World Cup 30%
  • General Election 66%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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