Archives: NZ Issues Polls

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.4%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 665 had a party preference

Dates: 06 to 16 March 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-5.9%)
  • Green 13.1% (+2.3%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 0.2% (-1.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 17
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/125 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 55/123 -eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 66.5% (+4.6%)
  • Cunliffe 11.1% (-5.4%)
  • Peters 6.5% (-0.8%)
  • Norman 4.5% (+1.1%)

Baby Bonus of $60 a week

  • Support 47%
  • Oppose 49%

Kim Dotcom

  • Should be extradited if court rules eligible 47%
  • Should not be extradited 42%

NZ Flag

  • Support new flag 41%
  • Keep current flag 53%

Countdown

  • 51% believe Shane Jones allegations
  • 20% believe Countdown

Len Brown

  • Would vote for Brown in 2016 – 23%
  • Would not vote for Brown – 58%
  • Brown can still be an effective advocate – 52%
  • Brown should have resigned 50% (+12%)
  • Brown should not have resigned 38% (-13%)

Income Inequality

  • 44% say gap between rich and poor has got a lot bigger
  • 30% say a little bigger
  • 22% say gap the same
  • 3% say gap has closed
  • 33% say they are better off under National
  • 30% the same
  • 30% worse off

New Zealand Flag

March 1, 2014

Research NZ found:

  • 22% agree NZ should adopt a new national flag, 37% disagree
  • 41% of those who back a change, support the black flag with silver fern design, with 57% opposed

Religion in schools

March 1, 2014

UMR found:

  • 27% agree New Zealand schools should include classes on Christianity taught from a Christian perspective, with 47% disagreeing
  • 74% agree New Zealand schools should teach about the differences between religions but not about which religion is right with 12% disagreeing
  • 68% agree Evolution should be taught as the view of how life developed which is generally accepted by scientists with 14% disagreeing
  • 38% agree Evolution, creationism and intelligent design should be taught as equally valid explanations for how life developed with 38% disagreeing

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 respondents, of whom 834 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 15 to 19 February 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (nc)
  • Green 8.0% (-5.0%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 0.9% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.1% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 44
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Winston Peters

  • 43% say he should be a Minister
  • 43% say he should not

Most important issues

  • Education 40%
  • Health 37%
  • Jobs 30%
  • Child poverty 27%
  • Wages 23%
  • Crime 21%
  • Income tax 17%
  • Asset sales 17%
  • House prices 15%
  • Inequality 14%

Minimum Wage

  • Increase to more than $15/hour 23%
  • Increase to $15/hour 46%
  • Increase to less than $15/hour 16%
  • Stay at $13.75/hour 13%

NZ Flag

  • Design a new flag 28%
  • Keep current flag 72%
  • If change, 85% say public should decide design

Fairfax Ipsos poll Feb 2014

February 15, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,018 of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17%

Dates: 10 February to 12 February 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 49.4% (-0.8%)
  • Labour 31.8% (-1.8%)
  • Green 10.0% (-0.7%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (+1.3%)
  • Maori 1.1% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • Mana0.3% (-0.4%)
  • Conservative 2.1% (+1.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 55/124 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.7% (+4.2%)
  • Wrong 35.6% (-4.9%)

Government Rating

  • 5.8/10 (+0.2)

Time for a change

  • Yes 47.3% (-2.8%)
  • No 48.0% (+4.9%)

Baby Bonus

  • Support 48.5%
  • Oppose 48.1%

Raise Taxes

  • Support 25.2%
  • Oppose 69.4%

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 21 to 28 January 2014

Client: 3 News

Report3 News

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+1.2%)
  • Green 12.4% (-1.6%)
  • ACT 0.0% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 1.0%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 5.7% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.1% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 42
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/125 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 58/125 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/125

On this poll, NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Key 39.0% (-1.9%)
  • Cunliffe 10.8% (nc)
  • Peters 5.8% (-1.7%)
  • Norman

NZ First

  • 54% say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 36% say he should rule him out
  • 61% of National supporters say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 32% say he should rule him out

Internet Party

  • 21% said they would consider voting for Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party
  • 75% would not

Polling Company: Key Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 18.6%

Poll Size: 500 respondents, of whom 407 had a voting preference

Dates: December 2013

Client: Herald on Sunday

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.2%
  • Labour 39.6%
  • Green 7.6%
  • NZ First 1.0%
  • Maori 0.7%
  • United Future 1.0%
  • ACT 0%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • Conservative 0.7%

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 49
  • Green 9
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/124 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 59/124 -four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Key 45%
  • Cunliffe 18%

Asset Sales

  • 37% say less likely to vote National because of them

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 656 had a party preference

Dates: 09 to 17 December 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 46.8% (+3.1%)
  • Labour 35.4% (-2.3%)
  • Green 10.8% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.7% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 44
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 59/123 -three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Key 61.9% (+6.1%)
  • Cunliffe 16.5% (-0.3%)
  • Peters 7.3% (+1.1%)
  • Norman 3.4% (-0.3%)

Pike River

  • Shareholders should pay compensation 64.4%
  • Government should pay compensation 19.8%

GST

  • Should be charged on all overseas purchases 40%
  • Current exemption level of $400 should remain 53%

Berms

  • Mowing berms responsibility of householder 60%
  • Mowing berms responsibility of council 34%

Sex Education

  • 75% say should teach more than the physical and medical aspects of sex

Fireworks

  • 39% want sale of fireworks banned
  • 60% happy with current rules

Speed limit

  • 67% support reducing tolerance to 4 km/hr
  • 29% against

Hauraki Gulf

  • Ban commercial fishing in Hauraki Gulf 53%
  • Support status quo 29%

Mining

  • 58% support oil, gas and mineral exploration
  • 38% against

Land sales

  • 55% support bill limiting land sales to foreigners

Drink Driving

  • 28% support that a BAC between 0.05 and 0.08 should be a criminal offence, with most supporting it being an infringement only.

Conservatives

  • 33% think Colin Craig’s views are too extreme
  • 24% say he is a welcome addition to political debates
  • 43% don’t know

Gender Quotas

  • 54% (52% of women) say Labour’s gender quota too restrictive
  • 38% (42% of women) say a good idea

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom approx 857 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.3%

Dates: approx 03 to 07 November 2013

Client: 3 News

Report3NewsPoll november 2013

Party Support

  • National 46.3% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 32.2% (+1.2%)
  • Green 10.4% (-1.6%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 1.2%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 4.2% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.8% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 42
  • Green 14
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on ACT losing Epsom and the Maori Party losing one seat.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 0 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 2 = 58/121 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 2 = 2/122

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.9% (-1.1%)
  • Cunliffe 10.8% (-1.3% from Shearer)
  • Peters 7.5% (+0.5%)
  • Norman 2.2% (+0.5%)

Leader Ratings

  • John Key – 58% well (+6%) and 28% poor (-4%) = 30% net positive (+10%)
  • David Cunliffe – 42% well (+16% from Shearer) and 25% poor (-19%) = 18% net positive (+35%)

KiwiAssure

  • 42% support a state insurer
  • 49% oppose it

Hamilton fluoride poll

October 1, 2013

The Waikato Times reports:

Hamilton voters have been asked and for a third time they have answered emphatically: put fluoride in our drinking water.

Just two weeks before local body election ballots close, a new Waikato Times poll, out today, has found voters overwhelmingly support fluoridation.

The survey, conducted over a three-day period this week, shows 59 per cent support the reintroduction of the chemical – the same percentage as a Versus Research poll in June.

Some 26 per cent supported keeping city water supplies fluoride-free, a two-percentage-point increase.

Two per cent of those questioned refused to answer this week’s poll, while 13 per cent were unsure where they stood on the debate. There were 400 people polled with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 per cent.

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