Archives: NZ Issues Polls

One News Colmar Brunton poll late August 2014

September 2, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 843 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 23 to 27 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2.0%
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.6% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 1.6% (-2.3%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 3.2% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 35
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 8
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/123 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/124

On this poll National could form a centre-right Governmentwith either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could form a Government with both NZ First and Maori Party (and Greens and Internet Mana).

Preferred PM

  • John Key 47% (+2.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 56% (+8%)
  • Worse 19% (-3%)
  • Same 25% (-5%)

Hager book

  • Believe allegations 41% (+13%)
  • Not believe 35% (-8%)
  • Unsure 24% (-5%)
  • Net negatively influenced view of National 13% (+8%)
  • Collins should stand down 61% agree, 26% disagree
  • Key informed of SIS OIA released – 41% believe he was not, 44% do not believe him

 

 

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NZ Herald Digipoll late August 2014

August 28, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 7.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 691 had a party preference

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.7% (+0.7%)
  • Labour 24.1% (-1.1%)
  • Green 11.4% (-1.7%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.7%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.4% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 3.3% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 31
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 4
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 49/124 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 67.8% (+3.0%)
  • Cunliffe 11.6% (-3.0%)
  • Peters 8.2% (+3.1%)
  • Norman 3.8% (+0.3%)

 Judith Collins

  • Should resign 46%
  • Should not resign 46%

Dirty Politics book

  • 53% say media coverage justified
  • 30% say not
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Te Tai Hauāuru poll August 2014

August 27, 2014

Reid Research have done a 500 person poll of Te Tai Hauāuru for Maori TV. Key results are:

Party Vote

  • Labour 36% (-6% from election)
  • Maori Party 23% (+2%)
  • National 12% (+4%)
  • Greens 11% (nc)
  • Internet Mana 11% (+3%)
  • NZ First 7% (-1%)

Electorate Vote

  • Maori Party 32% (-16%)
  • Labour 29% (-1%)
  • Greens 11% (nc)
  • Mana 10% (+1%)

Most important issues (rated 6/10 or higher)

  • Family violence 96%
  • Education 95%
  • Child poverty 95%
  • Cost of living 93%
  • Te Reo Maori 93%
  • Maori unemployment 90%
  • Housing 87%
  • Maori Leadership 81%
  • Mining 62%

If Maori Party balance of power

  • Prefer Labour 63%
  • Prefer National 24%

If National wins, Should Maori Party work with them?

  • Yes 67%
  • No 27%
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One News Colmar Brunton on Hager allegations

August 16, 2014

A snap One News Colmar Brunton poll found:

  • 77% have heard of Hager book, 23% have not
  • 28% believe National organised smear campaigns, 43% do not and 29% unsure
  • 9% say revelations have negatively influenced their view of National, 4% positively influences and 82% no difference
  • 12% say now more likely to vote on election day, 1% less likely and 87% no difference
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NZ Herald Digipoll July 2014

July 26, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 664 had a party preference

Dates: 10 to 17 July 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 54.9% (+4.5%)
  • Labour 26.5% (-4.0%)
  • Green 9.9% (-0.8%)
  • NZ First 4.6% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.7%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.2% (+0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.2% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 34
  • Green 13
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 3 = 49/124 -14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 73.3% (+7.4%)
  • Cunliffe 10.5% (-2.2%)
  • Peters 5.5% (-0.7%)
  • Norman 2.0% (-0.5%)

Fat Tax

  • 55% support a fat tax on sugar-high food
  • 43% oppose

Healthy Star Ratings

  • 82% support introduction

Education

  • 61% want money spent on improving teaching standards
  • 35% on reducing class sizes

School Donations

  • 52% support Labour policy of $100 per student funding if they do not ask for a donation
  • 37% say it is unfair

Cunliffe man apology

  • 42% say was silly and showed poor judgement
  • 45% say unusual way to make point about domestic violence

Auckland Council

  • 43% of Aucklanders want staff and salary cuts for Auckland Council
  • 20% support rates going up more than 2.5%
  • 19% support delaying the City Rail Link
  • 9% support reducing services
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Fairfax Ipsos poll July 2014

July 17, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos Poll Method: Random Phone Poll Size: 1024 respondents of whom 823 have a party preference Undecideds: 15.3% Dates: Client: Fairfax Report: Stuff Party Support

  • National 54.8% (-1.7%)
  • Labour 24.9% (+1.7%)
  • Green 12.4% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.6%)
  • Mana 1.2% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.3% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana 2 = 50/124 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed. Preferred PM

  • John Key 58.2% (+4.9%)
  • David Cunliffe 14.2% (+2.3%)
  • Winston Peters
  • Russel Norman

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 41.1% (-2.7%)
  • No 51.3% (+3.3%)

Leadership Changes

  • Labour would gain 15.2% and lose 1.7% for a net gain of 13.6% if David Cunliffe is not leader
  • National would gain 12.4% and lose 5.3% for a net gain of 7.1% if John Key is not leader

NZ First Coalition preferences

  • Expect National 32.1%
  • Expect Labour 29.2%
  • Neither 20.2%
  • Don’t Know 18.9%

Transport

  • 30% say focus should be public transport
  • 24% say roads
  • 40% say both
  • 57% say Government doing enough to ease traffic jams
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Class Sizes poll

July 8, 2014

3 News reports:

The Post-Primary Teachers’ Association surveyed 750 people and 83 percent said there should be a maximum of 25 students per class at secondary school, while nearly half said there should be no more than 20.

Full details here.

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Maui’s dolphins

June 27, 2014

The WWF state:

A new Colmar Brunton poll released today by WWF shows 60% of New Zealanders are more likely to vote for parties that will protect Maui’s dolphins across their range.

Fundings include:

  • 60% more likely to vote for a political party that extended the ban area for set nets, 7% less likely and 23% no difference
  • 51% more likely to vote for a party that spends to assist commercial fisheries transition to new methods, 10% less likely and 27% no difference
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Fairfax Ipsos poll June 2014

June 19, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1017 respondents of whom 777 have a party preference

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 14 to 17 June 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.6% (+8.9%)
  • Labour 23.2% (-6.3%)
  • Green 11.9% (-0.9%)
  • NZ First 3.2% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-1.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.2% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 0.9% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 30
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – twelve more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 47/123 – fifteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53.3% (+4.7%)
  • David Cunliffe 11.9% (-1.5%)
  • Winston Peters 2.5% (-0.9%)
  • Russel Norman 2.8% (+0.8%)

Country Direction

  • Right 63.1% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 35.4% (-0.2%)

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 43.8% (-2.5%)
  • No 48.0% (-0.1%)

Government Performance Out of 10

  • 0 – 2: 9.4% (+0.4%)
  • 3 – 7: 66.0% (-1.0%)
  • 8 – 10: 24.0% (nc)

Most Important Issues

  • Education 22%
  • Economy 21%
  • Health 19%
  • Unemployment 14%
  • Housing Affordability 12%
  • Immigration 4%

MMP Electorate seat threshold

  • 82% against “coat tailing”
  • 14% in favour

Expectation of tax cuts

  • 30% expect tax cuts
  • 61% do not

John Key

  • 22% say they would vote National if John Key stood down
  • 36% say they might depending on who replaced him
  • 39% would not
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NZ Herald Digipoll June 2014

June 17, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 659 had a party preference

Dates: 06 to 15 June 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.4% (-0.4%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 10.7% (-2.4%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (nc)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.4% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/123 -eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 65.9% (-0.6%)
  • Cunliffe 12.7% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 6.2% (-0.3%)
  • Norman 2.5% (-2.0%)

Electorate MP threshold

  • Keep 50%
  • Remove and drop threshold to 4% – 36%

Mana/Internet deal

  • Unprincipled rort 43%
  • Legitimate use of MMP 33%

Country Direction

  • Right 65%

Political Fundraising

  • 42% say politicians speaking regularly to donors in private meetings is a bad look
  • 30% say nothing wrong
  • 21% say it is corrupt

Capital Gains Tax

  • 41% favour
  • 35% opposed

Cannabis

  • 33% decriminalise
  • 20% legalise
  • 45% remain illegal

Immigration

  • Levels about right 50%
  • Too high 35%

Coalition Partners

  • Preferred coalition partner for Labour is Greens 50% then NZ First 35%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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