UMR did an online poll of 350 Christchurch residents from 27 May to 7 June 2010.
Curia was commissioned to do a poll of 1,200 Auckland residents on the upcoming mayoral elections, on behalf of Hon John Banks. The poll was done over five days last week.
The client, has given permission for the topline results to be released publicly.
There are some differences in methodology from other recent polls on the Mayoralty. These are:
The first question was:
If an election was held today for Mayor of the new Auckland Supercity, which Aucklander would you most like to be Mayor?
These are percentages of those who had an opinion. 34.1% of respondents could not or would not name a preferred Mayor unprompted.
The second question was:
If the choice for Mayor of the Auckland Super City was between Manukau City Mayor Len Brown and Auckland City Mayor John Banks, which one would be your preference?
John Banks 50.0%
Len Brown 50.0%
In a two way race, an identical number of respondents supported both John Banks and Len Brown. 14.8% of respondents were undecided, or would not express a preference.
The change since September
A poll was also done in September 2009 of 1,200 respondents. Changes between the two polls are:
In my opinion this reflects the higher profile John Banks has had in the first two months of 2010, and lower profile of Len Brown.
John Banks’ press secretary, Scott Campbell, can be contacted on 021 426 342 or by e-mail if comment is desired.
UMR polled 482 Aucklanders as part of two omnibus surveys of 1,500 NZers in June and July 2009. The maximum margin of error at 95% confidence is 4.5%.
Questions were asked on possible two-way clashes for the Auckland Mayoralty.
John Banks vs Mike Lee has 35% Banks, 18% Lee, 22% unsure and 25% don’t know enough.
John Banks vs Len Brown has 34% Banks, 35% Brown, 14% unsure and 17% don’t know enough.
The demographic breakdowns have high margins of error. But the margins between Banks and Brown are: