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One News/Colmar Brunton September 2008

September 14, 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 total voters and 854 decided voters (3.2% and 3.4% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 6 September to 11 September 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 1.8% (-0.8%)
  • Maori 1.8% (-1.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.4%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 66
  • Labour 43
  • Green 6
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 66/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 57/124 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.0% (+4.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 50% (+6%)
  • Same 23% (+5%)
  • Worse 27% (-11%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late August 2008

September 6, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 841 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 August to 31 August 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 38.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-4.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.0% (+0.5%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 56
  • Labour 47
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 56 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/123 – majority possible
  • National 56 +Maori 6 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 47 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 6 = 64/124 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.
Country Direction
  • Right 50.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (-5.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-0.5%)
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NZ Herald DigiPoll August 2008

September 6, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents, (3.6% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 3 August to 25 August 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story and breakdowns here and graphs here.

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-5.4%)
  • Labour 36.3% (+5.5%)
  • Green 5.1% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.1% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 3.1% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 2.3% (+2.1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 6
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 62 + ACT 3 = 65/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 45 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 46.6% (-0.5%)
  • Clark 45.0% (+1.0%)
  • Peters 5.6% (+0.7%)

Most influential issue

  • Economy 24.7% (+1.8%)
  • Law & Order 17.0% (-0.2%)
  • Tax Cuts 16.3% (-0.2%)
  • Hospital Waiting Lists 13.8% (nc)
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Colmar Brunton on Peters as Foreign Minister

September 6, 2008

In August, Colmar Bruton asked whether the allegations about Winston Peters were having an impact on his job as Foreign Minister.

They asked regardless of whether you support New Zealand First, which of the following statements best sums up your opinion on whether this has affected Mr Peters’ ability to carry out his role as Foreign Minister.”

It was asked from 9-14 August 2008

  • It has affected his ability to a high degree – 27%
  • It has had some impact on his ability to do the job – 37%
  • It has made no difference to him doing the job – 32%
  • Don’t Know – 5%
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Hamilton East and West polls

September 1, 2008

The Waikato Times and Versus Research have done polls in Hamilton East and Hamilton West.

Their online report does not specify the sample size or dates of the polls apart from “Monday and Tuesday evenings”.

Hamilton West Electorate Vote

  • Tim Macindoe (Nat) 37%
  • Martin Gallagher (Lab) 35%
  • Don’t Know 24%

Hamilton East Electorate Vote

  • David Bennett (Nat) 61%
  • Sue Moroney (Lab) 14%
  • Don’t Know 14%

Hamilton Party Vote

  • National 49%
  • Labour 25%
  • National 58% PV in Ham East and 40% in Ham West
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Justice System Confidence

September 1, 2008

A Research NZ poll of 500 respondents on confidence in the justice system was conducted from 7 to 14 August 2008.

  • 36% say they have full trust and confidence in the NZ justice system, and 62% do not.
  • The more money a respondents earns, the less likely they are to trust the justice system.
  • 1% say sentences are too hard, 75% too soft and 21% about right.
  • 48% support capital punishment for the worst murders and 49% do not.
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Car Use Poll

September 1, 2008

A Research NZ poll of 500 respondents on car use was conducted between 15 June and 24 July.

  • 59% say they are driving less due to higher fuel costs, 32% say driving the same and 9% do not drive
  • Of those who are driving less, 17% are using public transport more, 18% are car pooling, 48% are walking more, and 10% have gone to a more fuel efficient vehicle.
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Light Bulb Ban

September 1, 2008

A Research NZ poll of 500 respondents on the light bulb ban was conducted between 15 June and 24 July.

  • 46% support making eco-bulbs compulsory and 47% are opposed
  • Under 30s strongest support at 67% to 25%
  • 50 to 60 year olds most opposed with 31% for and 62% against
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MMP poll

September 1, 2008

A Research NZ poll of 500 respondents on MMP was conducted between 7 and 14 August.

  • 46% support FPP
  • 41% support MMP
  • Amongst under 30s MMP has 53% to 23% for FPP
  • Amongst those aged over 50, FPP has 59% support
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TV3/TNS Poll August 2008

August 25, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 August to 20 August 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (nc)
  • Labour 37.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 60
  • Labour 46
  • Green 7
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 60 + ACT 3 = 63/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 61/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, NZ First and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
  • Key 34.0% (+2.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (+3.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (-2.0%)
  • English 3.0% (+2.0%)
Leader Ratings
  • Clark – 63% (+6%) performing well vs 22% (-7%) performing badly
  • Key – 56% (+6%) performing well vs 20% (-3%) performing badly
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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