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2008 US Presidential Election

September 26, 2008

A UMR poll from 11 to 14 September found:

  • 65% of NZers back Barack Obama
  • 11% back John McCain
  • Obama gets 69% support from Labour voters, 63% from National voters, 74% from white collar workers and 58% from blue collar workers
  • 55% of NZers approved of McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin, with 25% disapproving
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Hadron Collider

September 26, 2008

A UMR poll of 750 people on CERN’s Hadron Collider found

  • 53% said they had followed stories on the collider moderately to very closely
  • 27% said they were moderately to very concerned it would create a mini black-hole leading to the end of the world
  • 8% said they were very concerned it would destroy the world
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Cellphone skews in the US

September 26, 2008

JafaPete blogs on US Research from Pew on whether or not respondents who have a cellphone and not a landline differ from those with landlines.

The answer in the US if yes they do, but the overall impact on findings is still relatively modest.

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Research NZ on Women’s Equality

September 20, 2008

A Research NZ poll of 529 respondents on women’s equality was conducted between 2 September and 11 September 2008.

  • 34% of women say they do not have equal rights with men. 16% of men agree.
  • Overall 72% of NZers think women and men do have equal rights.
  • Amongst under 30s, 87% say women and men have equal rights.
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Fairfax Poll September 2008

September 20, 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,130 total voters, 983 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 11 to 17 August September 2008 (estimated)

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff and Stuff

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 66
  • Labour 43
  • Green 6
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 66 = 66/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 57/124 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 41.0% (-2.0%)
  • Clark 30.0 (-1.0%)
  • Peters 2.0% (nc)
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Green Party Polling

September 19, 2008

This follows on from the NZ First poll comparison. Again Roy Morgan has the Green Party higher than the otehr companies – but less so than with New Zealand First.

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Polling on New Zealand First

September 19, 2008

The graph above shows how NZ First have done in every public poll since the 2005 election.

There appears to be a significant difference between the level of support for NZ First in the Roy Morgan polls, as opposed to the five other polling companies. This is not to say Roy Morgan is necessarily wrong – just that there is some sort of systematic or methodological recurring reason why they show a higher level of support.

I don’t have available the full methodology used by Roy Morgan, so it is hard to speculate on why they get such different results. It might be linked to the fact they poll around 60 people a day and report in two week intervals, rather than the shorter time frames of the other polls.

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Roy Morgan Poll early September 2008

September 18, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 823 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 01 September to 14 September 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 36.5% (-1.5%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 57
  • Labour 44
  • Green 8
  • NZ First 6
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 57 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/125 – majority possible
  • National 57 +Maori 6 = 63/125 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 + NZ First 6 + Maori 6 = 65/125 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Country Direction
  • Right 44.0% (-6.5%)
  • Wrong 41.0% (+5.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.0%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll on Winston Peters

September 15, 2008

The previously reported Colmar Brunton poll had an additional question on Winston Peters.

  • On the issue of how PM Helen Clark has managed Winston Peters over the secret donations scandal, 58% say she has been too soft, 28% about right and 3% too tough.
  • 78% says Peters has not been open and honest on the funding of NZ First and 9% say he has.
  • 68% support National’s stance of ruling Peters out, 24% disagree
  • 63% say Labour should rule Peters out with 26% disagreeing
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ShapeNZ Emissions Trading Poll

September 15, 2008

Polling Company: ShapeNZ (part of New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable Development)

Poll Method: Internet Sample (not fully random)

Poll Size: 2,204 (2.1% margin of error)

Date: to to 11 September 2008

Client: NZ Business Council for Sustainable Development

Report: NZBCSD Media Release

References: NZ Herald

  • 25% says climate change is an urgent problem, 51% say a problem now , 9% a problem for later and 13% not a problem.
  • 25% say NZ’s response to climate change has been too quick, 39% about right and 33% too slow.
  • 39% support an ETS and 29% do not.
  • Only 10% say they are well informed on the ETS with 46% somewhat informed, 28% somewhat uninformed and 13% uninformed.
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Curia's blog specialises in polls and polling, with a mainly New Zealand focus. More

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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