One News Colmar Brunton Poll 12 October 2008
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,008 total voters and 860 decided voters (3.2% and 3.5% maximum margins of error)
Dates: 4 October to 09 October 2008
Client: One News
Report: TVNZ
Party Support
- National 51.0% (-1.0%)
- Labour 33.0% (nc)
- Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
- NZ First 2.6% (+0.6%)
- Maori 2.8% (+0.3%)
- United Future 0.1% (-0.6%)
- ACT 1.6% (+0.1%)
- Progressive 0.3% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 63
- Labour 41
- Green 10
- NZ First 0
- Maori 6
- United Future 1
- ACT 2
- Progressive 1
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 63 = 63/124 – majority possible
- Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
- Key 39.0% (-2.0%)
- Clark 31.0% (nc)
- Peters 2.0% (-1.0%)
Economic Outlook
- Better 38.0% (-3.0%)
- Worse 42.0% (+4.0%)
- Same 20.0% (-2.0%)
