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TV3 Poll February 2009

March 7, 2009

Polling Company: TNS (under a new name)

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Published 18 Feb, so probably from 10 to 15 Feb 2009

Client: TV3

Report: None online

Party Support

  • National 60.0% (+14.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-6.1%)
  • Green 7.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 1.2% (-1.6%)
  • Maori 2.1% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-1.9%)

Projected Seats

  • National 74
  • Labour 33
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 74 = 74/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 33 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 + Maori 5  = 48/124 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United Future would only go with National, and Greens, Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour, with Maori Party able to go either way.

Preferred PM

  • Key 52.0% (+15.4%)
  • Clark 13.8% (-20.4%)
  • Goff 3.7% (+3.7%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll February 2009

March 7, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 total voters, 877  likely voters (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 February to 19 February 2009

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (+9.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-7.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-3.0%)
  • ACT 3.1% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 3.4% (+2.1%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.4% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 1.4% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 35
  • Green 7
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 70 = 70/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 5 = 48/122 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party.

Economic Outlook

  • 37% economy over next 12 months will be better (-4.0%)
  • 21% same (+2.0%)
  • 42% worse (+2.0)
Jobs
  • 22% worried they could close their job
  • 66% not worried
  • 8% do not have a job
  • 2% have lost their jobs
  • 2% don’t know
Labour Leadership
  • 53% could name Phil Goff as Labour Leader
  • 13% could name Annette King as Deputy Leader of Labour
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Relationships

February 11, 2009

Colmar Brunton have done a survey of 500 people for the makers of K-Y. They found:

  • 25% of women say financial worries are affecting intimacy levels in their relationship
  • 19% of men say the same
  • In the 20 to 24 age group, it is 38%
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Roy Morgan late January 2009

February 10, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 982 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 19 January to 1 February 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • Other 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 11
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 60 + ACT 4 = 64/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 39 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 5 = 56/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.0%)
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Financial Optimism

February 10, 2009

Research NZ polled 500 people from 26 November to 3 December 2008 on their financial optimism.

  • 50% think things will be better over the next 12 months and 23% worse
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Republicanism

February 10, 2009

Research NZ polled 500 people from 26 November to 3 Decmeber 2008 on republicanism.

  • 42% of NZers support NZ becoming a Republic, and 38% do not
  • 48% of men support a republic, compared to only 37% of women
  • Most under 40s support a republic while those over 60 are against 2:1
  • 45% wants Prince Charles to succeed the Queen and 43% Prince William
  • A net 13% of men want Charles and a net 9% of women want William
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Job Security

February 10, 2009

Research NZ polled 500 people from 10 to 13 November 2008 on job security.

  • 73% of those in employment think their job is secure
  • Only 58% of those in households with income under $40K think their job is secure compared to 80% of those in households with over $70k income
  • 39% expect a pay rise in the next year, 58% do not
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MMP

February 10, 2009

Research NZ polled 500 people from 10 to 13 November 2008 on MMP.

  • 53% support MMP (up 7% from Aug) and 35% FPP (down 6%) suggesting the election result has led to more people happier with MMP
  • 69% of under 30s support MMP but only 45% of over 60s, however MMP more popular than FPP in all age groups
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Asian Immigrants

January 31, 2009

A Colmar Brunton survey of 1,000 NZers for the Asia NZ Foundation has found the following:

  • 75% of NZers said Asia was important to NZ’s future. 86% rated South Pacific as important, 67% Europe (incl UK), 55% North America, 24% Latin America and 12% Africa
  • 91% rate exports to Asia as positive, 89% Asian tourism to NZ, 73% FTAs with Asia countries, 80% Asian economic growth, 78% tourism to Asia, 58% imports from Asia, 62% Asian culture and traditions, 46% Asian population growth and 53% immigration from Asia to NZ
  • “Net positive” ratings for the above are 87% exports to Asia, 83% Asian tourism to NZ, 58% FTAs with Asia countries, 70% Asian economic growth, 72% tourism to Asia, 33% imports from Asia, 48% Asian culture and traditions,14% Asian population growth and 27% immigration from Asia to NZ
  • The countries that people associate with Asia are China 86%, Japan 62%, Korea 46%, Thailand 30%, India 30%, Malaysia 28% etc
  • Personal contact with Asian peoples is 19% a lot, 39% a fair amount, 28% not much, and 14% hardly anything.
  • Women and higher socio-economic NZers are more likely to have personal contact with Asians
  • 89% have contact with Asians through shopping, 67% through their work, 71% through friends, 63% through their neighbourhood community, 61% through school, 53% through clubs, 33% through sports, 29% through marriage, 32% through Asian events and 26% through religion.
  • On a warmth scale fo 0 to 100, NZers rate people from India as 70 (in Australia 57), from Japan 73 (64) and China 69 (56). Warmth is highest amongst those people who actually have a lot of contact with people from Asia.
  • 85% think Asian immigrants contribute to our economy, 82% that they bring valuable cultural diversity, and 64% that they improve workplace productivity
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Roy Morgan Poll January 2009

January 31, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,922 (2.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 January to 18 January 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+1.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • Other 0.5% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 59 + ACT 4 = 63/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 5 = 57/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.0% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 19.0% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-3.0%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 33.8% 42
Labour 31.2% 39
Green 9.8% 12
Act 9.3% 12
NZ First 7.0% 9
TPM 4.4% 6
CR 50.1% 63
CL 45.3% 57
7/04/25
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