MMP
September 14, 2009
ResearchNZ did a poll of 500 respondents from 8 to 10 September. Findings:
- 45% want to retain MMP, 42% do not
- 58% of under 25s want to retain MMP but only around 40% of over 55s
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Roy Morgan late August 2009
September 14, 2009
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 860 (3.4% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 17 August to 30 August 2009
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 56.5% (+3.0%)
- Labour 29.5% (-3.0%)
- Green 8.0% (-0.5%)
- ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
- Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
- United Future 0.5% (nc)
- Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
- NZ First 1.5% (-0.5%)
Projected Seats
- National 68
- Labour 36
- Green 10
- ACT 2
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/123 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Country Direction
- Right 65.5% (-1.0%)
- Wrong 22.0% (+0.5%)
- Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)
Roy Morgan mid August 2009
August 24, 2009
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 816 (3.5% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 3 August to 16 August 2009
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 53.5% (nc)
- Labour 32.5% (-1.5%)
- Green 8.5% (+1.5%)
- ACT 1.0% (-1.5%)
- Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
- United Future 0.5% (nc)
- Progressive 0.0% (nc)
- NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)
Projected Seats
- National 66
- Labour 40
- Green 10
- ACT 1
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/124 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 51/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Country Direction
- Right 66.5% (+0.5%)
- Wrong 21.5% (+3.0%)
- Can’t Say 12.0% (-3.5%)
MMP Poll
August 23, 2009
UMR did a poll from 2 to 6 July 2009 of 750 New Zealanders. Findings include:
- 41% support MMP, 40% FPP, 19% unsure or no preference
- 32% say MMP has had a positive impact, 37% were neutral and 24% said it had a negative impact
- 64% want a referendum on MMP, 26% do not
- 74% support reducing MPs from 120 to 100, 18% do not
- 69% of the 74% support a reduction, even if it means House is no longer fully proportional
TV3 Poll August 2009
August 16, 2009
Polling Company: Reid Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, (3.2% maximum margin of error)
Dates: estimated 08 April to 13 April 2009
Client: TV3
Report: TV3
Party Support
- National 58.1% (+2.1%)
- Labour 29.2% (-0.8%)
- Green 7.5% (+1.4%)
- ACT 1.4% (-0.7%)
- Maori 1.2% (-1.7%)
- United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
- Progressive 0.0% (-0.3%)
- NZ First 1.0% (-0.3%)
Projected Seats
- National 72
- Labour 36
- Green 9
- ACT 2
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 126
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 72 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 75/126 – 11 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 46/126 -18 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- Key 51.5% (+0.4%)
- Clark 8.0% (-3.5%)
- Goff 6.5% (-2.6%)
Roy Morgan Poll late July 2009
August 16, 2009
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 834 (3.5% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 20 July to 2 August 2009
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan Website
Party Support
- National 53.5% (+1.5%)
- Labour 34.0% (+4.0%)
- Green 7.0% (-3.0%)
- ACT 2.5% (+1.5%)
- Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
- United Future 0.5% (nc)
- Progressive 0.0% (nc)
- NZ First 1.0% (-1.0%)
Projected Seats
- National 65
- Labour 41
- Green 8
- ACT 3
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/124 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 50/124 -13 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Country Direction
- Right 66.0% (-0.5%)
- Wrong 18.5% (-2.0%)
- Can’t Say 15.5% (+2.5%)
Curia poll on mobile phones
August 12, 2009
Curia did a poll for Exceltium in August 2009 of 800 mobile phone owners. The full results are here: 090807 Curia Report
Key findings:
- 48% on Vodafone, 47% Telecom, 3% both and 2% other
- 33% said their choice of network was influenced by whether the people they call or text are on the same network
- 73% say mobile phone charges are higher in NZ than overseas and 3% disagree
- 81% believe Telecom and Vodafone are over-charging and only 5% disagree
- 86% say they should be able to call someone on a different network for the same cost as someone on the same network, and 88% say the same for texting
- 85% think it is wrong it often costs more to ring a mobile phone domestically than to call someone living overseas
- 37% trust companies to lower their prices voluntarily, 55% do not
- 81% want the Government to accept the Commerce Commission’s recommendation to lower the termination rate, and 14% do not
- 15% said they are more likely to vote for a party that lowered mobile phone costs through reducing the termination rates and only 1% said they are less likely
Colmar Brunton on Smacking
August 3, 2009
The One News Colmar Brunton Poll of 1,001 respondents from 25 to 29 July asked several questions on smacking:
- 70% say they intend to vote in the referendum and 24% do not.
- 20% say the referendum is a good use of public money and 76% do not.
- 25% say the current law as it relates to smacking and child discipline is working and 63% say it is not.
- 13% say they intend to vote yes in the referendum, and 83% vote no
- 2% say it is ok to smack children under any circumstance, 83% say ok to smack under some circumstances and14% say not okay under any circumstances.
One News Colmar Brunton Poll July 2009
August 2, 2009
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,001 adults, of whom 850 are decided
Dates: 25 July to 29 July 2009
Client: One News
Party Support
- National 56.0% (-1.0%)
- Labour 31.0% (nc)
- Green 7.0% (nc)
- ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
- Maori 3.1% (+0.9%)
- United Future not reported yet
- Progressive not reported yet
- NZ First 1.6%
Projected Seats
- National 69
- Labour 37
- Green 8
- ACT 1
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 122
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/122 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 46/122 -16 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Economic Outlook
- 60% economy over next 12 months will be better (+18.0%)
- 18% same (-1.0%)
- 22% worse (-17.0%)
Preferred PM
- John Key 51% (nc)
- Phil Goff 7% (+1%)
- Helen Clark 3% (-6%)
SAS Troops and Afghanistan poll
August 2, 2009
Research NZ polled 500 New Zealanders from 6 to 9 July:
- 61% agree with extending by a year the tour of duty of 140 troops working on reconstruction projects
- 47% support sending SAS soldiers to Afghanistan and 44% are against