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Roy Morgan late August 2009

September 14, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 860 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 17 August to 30 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 56.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-3.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 36
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/123 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)
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Roy Morgan mid August 2009

August 24, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 816 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 3 August to 16 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (nc)
  • Labour 32.5% (-1.5%)
  • Green 8.5% (+1.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 40
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/124 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 51/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 21.5% (+3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-3.5%)
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MMP Poll

August 23, 2009

UMR did a poll from 2 to 6 July 2009 of 750 New Zealanders. Findings include:

  • 41% support MMP, 40% FPP, 19% unsure or no preference
  • 32% say MMP has had a positive impact, 37% were neutral and 24% said it had a negative impact
  • 64% want a referendum on MMP, 26% do not
  • 74% support reducing MPs from 120 to 100, 18% do not
  • 69% of the 74% support a reduction, even if it means House is no longer fully proportional
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TV3 Poll August 2009

August 16, 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: estimated 08 April to 13 April 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 58.1% (+2.1%)
  • Labour 29.2% (-0.8%)
  • Green 7.5% (+1.4%)
  • ACT 1.4% (-0.7%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-1.7%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 36
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 126

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 75/126 – 11 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 46/126 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 51.5% (+0.4%)
  • Clark 8.0% (-3.5%)
  • Goff 6.5% (-2.6%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late July 2009

August 16, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 834 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 July to 2 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (-3.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 41
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/124 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 50/124 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 18.5% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.5% (+2.5%)
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Curia poll on mobile phones

August 12, 2009

Curia did a poll for Exceltium in August 2009 of 800 mobile phone owners. The full results are here: 090807 Curia Report

Key findings:

  • 48% on Vodafone, 47% Telecom, 3% both and 2% other
  • 33% said their choice of network was influenced by whether the people they call or text are on the same network
  • 73% say mobile phone charges are higher in NZ than overseas and 3% disagree
  • 81% believe Telecom and Vodafone are over-charging and only 5% disagree
  • 86% say they should be able to call someone on a different network for the same cost as someone on the same network, and 88% say the same for texting
  • 85% think it is wrong it often costs more to ring a mobile phone domestically than to call someone living overseas
  • 37% trust companies to lower their prices voluntarily, 55% do not
  • 81% want the Government to accept the Commerce Commission’s recommendation to lower the termination rate, and 14% do not
  • 15% said they are more likely to vote for a party that lowered mobile phone costs through reducing the termination rates and only 1% said they are less likely
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Colmar Brunton on Smacking

August 3, 2009

The One News Colmar Brunton Poll of 1,001 respondents from 25 to 29 July asked several questions on smacking:

  • 70% say they intend to vote in the referendum and 24% do not.
  • 20% say the referendum is a good use of public money and 76% do not.
  • 25% say the current law as it relates to smacking and child discipline is working and 63% say it is not.
  • 13% say they intend to vote yes in the referendum, and 83% vote no
  • 2% say it is ok to smack children under any circumstance, 83% say ok to smack under some circumstances and14% say not okay under any circumstances.
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll July 2009

August 2, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 adults, of whom 850 are decided

Dates: 25 July to 29 July 2009

Client: One News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (nc)
  • Green 7.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 3.1% (+0.9%)
  • United Future not reported yet
  • Progressive not reported yet
  • NZ First 1.6%

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 37
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/122 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 46/122 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 60% economy over next 12 months will be better (+18.0%)
  • 18% same (-1.0%)
  • 22% worse (-17.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 51% (nc)
  • Phil Goff 7% (+1%)
  • Helen Clark 3% (-6%)
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SAS Troops and Afghanistan poll

August 2, 2009

Research NZ polled 500 New Zealanders from 6 to 9 July:

  • 61% agree with extending by a year the tour of duty of 140 troops working on reconstruction projects
  • 47% support sending SAS soldiers to Afghanistan and 44% are against
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Smacking Referendum Poll

August 1, 2009

Research NZ polled 481 people from 17 to 19 June:

  • Only 18% think the referendum is a good use of taxpayers money as the PM has said the Government is unlikely to change the law
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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