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UMR did an online poll of 350 Christchurch residents from 27 May to 7 June 2010.

  • 46% prefer Anderton as Mayor, 21% Bob Parker and 22% undecided
  • In a head to head, Anderton 61%, Parker 30%
  • Bob Parker has a net approval rating of -14% and Jim Anderton is +42%
  • 64% say Christchurch is heading in the right direction and 28% wrong direction

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 849, of whom 798 have a party preference

Dates: 21 June to 04 July 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+2.5%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-4.0%)
  • Green 8.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 3.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.0% (+1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 36
  • Green 11
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 = 47/121 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 21.0% (-3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-1.5%)

TV3 poll June 2010

June 20, 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 880 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 8 June to 15 June 2010

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 55.3% (+3.2%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-3.3%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 1.6% (nc)
  • Maori 1.9%  (nc)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.8% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 38
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/124 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 9 = 47/124 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 49.6% (+0.4%)
  • Clark 4.9% (+1.2%)
  • Goff 5.1% (-2.4%)
  • Peters ?

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 69.0% (+0.2%) doing well vs 15.9% (-0.5%) doing poorly – net positive is 53.1% (+0.7%)
  • Goff  – 27.2% (-6.9%) doing well vs 45.4% (+3.9%) doing poorly – net positive is -18.2% (-10.8%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 20% (-6%)
  • down to earth – Key by 12% (-5%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 23% (-2%)
  • has personality – Key by 46% (+4%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 5% (-9%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 13% (-2%)
  • out of touch – Key by 4% (+1%)
Asset Sales
  • 85% say Govt should not sell Kiwibank, 9% say sell
  • 53.5% believe National will try and sell Kiwibank if they win a second term, 29.5% think they won’t
  • 80% say no the sale of any state assets, with only 12% supporting sale

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 923, of whom 863 have a party preference

Dates: 31 May to 13 June 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 50.5% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 40
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – 3 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 12 = 52/121 – 9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.5% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.5% (+5.0%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 902, of whom 852 have a party preference

Dates: 17 May to 30 May 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.5% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 9.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/121 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 12 = 49/121 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 26.0% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-1.5%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,009 adults, 843 of whom had a party vote preference

Dates: 22 to 26 May 2010

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (nc)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.3%)
  • ACT 2.2% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.6% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.3%)
    Progressive 0.5% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.3% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 41
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT, United Future one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 66/121 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 9 = 50/121 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 56% economy over next 12 months will be better (-9.0%)
  • 18% same (+2.0%)
  • 26% worse (+7.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 46% (-2.0%)
  • Phil Goff 6% (-2%)
  • Helen Clark not yet known
2010 Budget
  • 37% say makes them better off, 53% say it does not
  • 61% say budget good for economy, 25% disagree
  • 50% say it was fair, and 41% disagree
Drinking Age
  • 74% want 20 and 24% 18

Curia was commissioned to do a poll of 1,200 Auckland residents on the upcoming mayoral elections, on behalf of Hon John Banks. The poll was done over five days last week.

The client, has given permission for the topline results to be released publicly.

There are some differences in methodology from other recent polls on the Mayoralty. These are:

  1. The Curia poll sample and responses reflect turnout for the 2007 local govt elections. In other words, the proportion of responses from one particular territorial local authority is approximately the same proportion of votes cast in that TLA, as a share of the entire region.
  2. The Curia poll has a large sample of 1,200 responses, which has a margin of error of only 2.9%. A recent other poll had a 4.6% margin of error.
  3. The Curia poll asks respondents who would be their preference for Mayor, not who they think will be a better Mayor, as asked in a recent other poll.
  4. The Curia poll was taken as a snapshot over five days, the other recent poll was taken over seventeen days.
  5. The Curia poll was a short stand alone poll, not part of a longer omnibus poll.
  6. Two questions were asked – first an unprompted question on which Aucklander they would like to be Mayor, and then a second question asking their preference if it is a choice between Auckland Mayor John Banks and Manukau Mayor Len Brown.

The first question was:

If an election was held today for Mayor of the new Auckland Supercity, which Aucklander would you most like to be Mayor?

  1. John Banks 42.5%
  2. Len Brown 38.1%
  3. Bob Harvey 7.2%
  4. Stephen Tindall 4.8%
  5. Others 3.2%
  6. Paul Holmes 1.4%
  7. Mike Lee 1.3%
  8. Michael Barnett 1.3%
  9. Andrew Williams 0.4%

These are percentages of those who had an opinion. 34.1% of respondents could not or would not name a preferred Mayor unprompted.

The second question was:

If the choice for Mayor of the Auckland Super City was between Manukau City Mayor Len Brown and Auckland City Mayor John Banks, which one would be your preference?

John Banks 50.0%

Len Brown 50.0%

In a two way race, an identical number of respondents supported both John Banks and Len Brown.  14.8% of respondents were undecided, or would not express a preference.

The change since September

A poll was also done in September 2009 of 1,200 respondents. Changes between the two polls are:

  • Banks Unprompted – from 39.0% in Sep 09 to 42.5% in Feb 10
  • Brown Unprompted – from 44.5% in Sep 09 to 38.1% in Feb 10
  • Banks Prompted – from 45.1% in Sep 09 to 50.0% in Feb 10
  • Brown Unprompted – from 54.9% in Sep 09 to 50.0% in Feb 10

In my opinion this reflects the higher profile John Banks has had in the first two months of 2010, and lower profile of Len Brown.

John Banks’ press secretary, Scott Campbell, can be contacted on 021 426 342 or by e-mail if comment is desired.

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 600 respondents (4.1% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 29 January to 10 February 2010

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (-1.3%)
  • Labour 33.6% (+1.2%)
  • Green 4.6% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.7% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 2.8% (nc)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.8% (-0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.2% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 43
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 44/123 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 58.0% (+2.7%)
  • Clark 7.0% (-3.6%)
  • Goff 6.8% (+0.6%)

Herald Digipoll on NZ Flag

February 13, 2010

A Herald Digipoll of 600 respondents from 29 Jan to 10 Feb 2010 found:

  • 52% back a change in the NZ flag, while 44% do not
  • If a new flag is designed the preferred national symbol on it is silver fern 53%, kiwi 18%, koru 13%, southern cross 12.5%, tiki 1%
  • 54% say the current flag is distinctive enough
  • 60% want the union jack kept on the flag

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,758 (2.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 January to 31 January 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 40
  • Green 17
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 68/121 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 = 48/121 – 13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 71.0% (+2.5%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 9.0% (-1.5%)
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