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One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2010

September 27, 2010

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Around 1,000

Dates: Estimated 18 September to 23 September 2010

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+5.0%)
  • Labour 32.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.1% (-1.6%)
  • Maori 2.3% (nc)
  • United Future
  • Progressive
  • NZ First 2.4% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 39
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT, United Future one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 10 = 49/123 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 52% (+7%)
  • Phil Goff 8% (-1%)
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Roy Morgan Poll mid September 2010

September 27, 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 895, of whom 846 have a party preference

Dates: 30 August to 12 September 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+1.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 43
  • Green 10
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – 3 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 10 = 53/124 – 10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 28.0% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-3.0%)
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90 days trial period poll

September 20, 2010

UMR did a poll on behalf of the CTU of 750 NZers from 9 to 12 September 2010. The question was:

Do you think that all employees should have the right to appeal if they think they have been unfairly dismissed, even if their dismissal was during the first 90 days of their employment?

80% said yes, and 18% no.

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Climate Change Poll

September 20, 2010

UMR conducted a poll of 503 respondents in July and August on climate change issues, for the Greenhouse Policy Coalition:

  • 36% say the climate change issues is a serious or very serious concern (-7% from 43% in 2009)
  • 25% say NZ should reduce emissions, even if it reduces standard of living (-10%)
  • 58% say NZ should take part in an agreed international emissions scheme even if it costs every NZer $50 a year (-6%)
  • 18% say NZ should reduce emissions even if it costs jobs (-6%)
  • 45% agree controlling emissions is about saving the planet and should ot quibble over money (-11%)
  • 66% agree NZ should switch to more sustainable technologies, even if there is a cost to doing so (-13%)
  • On a 0 to 10 scale for fairness of putting a price on carbon emissions, 51% rate it 5 or higher (-6%)
  • 34% say they are informed about the ETS (+5%)
  • 46% say that climate change is a problem and is caused by human activity (+2%)
  • 33% say that climate change is a problem but there is no clear proof it is caused by human activity (-3%)
  • 19% say that climate change is not a problem (+1%)
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Auckland Mayoralty Poll

September 16, 2010

The Herald reports a Digipoll of 750 Aucklanders:

  • Len Brown 28.9% (-0.7%)
  • John Banks 27.8% 9-0.9%)
  • Andrew Williams 1.0% (-3.9%)
  • Colin Craig 1.9% (-1.6%)
  • Undecided 35.2%
  • In a crisis such as an earthquake 27.9% would opt for Banks and 19.2% for Brown
  • If Chch Mayor Bob Parker stood, 36.2% said they would vote for him
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Oil substitutes poll

September 10, 2010

A poll of 500 people by Colmar Brunton for Greenpeace.

Respondents were told that oil prices would rise steadily as cheaper oil supplies ran out.

They were asked if they thought the Government should:

  • Invest now in developing public transport and alternatives to petrol and diesel for New Zealand – 72%
  • Allow consumers and companies to find or develop their own alternative transport methods and fuels when they consider petrol and diesel prices have become too high – 24%
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Christchurch Mayoralty Poll

September 10, 2010

A Press poll of 500 voters by Opinions Research found:

  • 43% had decided their Mayoral vote
  • Of those 50% supported Anderton and 31% Parker
  • 41% of voters were concerned by Anderton’s plans to hold two jobs, while 56% had no or little concern
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Liquor Sale Hours

September 9, 2010

Research NZ did a poll of 500 people from 4 to 12 August. Respondents were asked what is the latest time bars should be able to stay open until. Note they were not asked whether there should be a nationwide closing time at all:

  • 26% (cumulatively) said by midnight
  • 63% said by 2 am
  • 81% said by 4 am
  • 19% of under 34 year olds said midnight, compared to 42% of over 55s
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Assisted Suicide/Euthanasia poll

September 9, 2010

Research NZ did a poll of 500 people from 4 to 12 August:

  • 47% say assisted suicide should be legal in NZ
  • 44% disagree
  • Only 39% of under 35s agree, but 51% of over 35s agree
  • 49% of Europeans agree but only 37% of Maori/Pacific agree
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2010 local body elections

September 9, 2010

Research NZ did a poll of 474 adults from 4 to 12 August. The proportion who said an issue would a lot of influence of now they vote were:

  • Safety 57%
  • Rates 55%
  • What candidate stands for 53%
  • liquor licensing 37%
  • public transport 36%
  • traffic congestion 34%
  • traffic enforcement 29%
  • sports and cultural funding 25%

74% said they were very likely to vote,

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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