Blog

Fairfax Research International Poll July 2011

July 31, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 860 had a party preference

Dates: 21 to 25 July 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.0%
  • Labour 29.0%
  • Green 6.4%
  • ACT 2.2%
  • Maori 1.2%
  • United Future <1%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 2.0%

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 36
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 75/121 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 8 + Mana 1= 45/121 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53%
  • Phil Goff 6.2%
  • Winston Peters 2.5%

Preferred Coalition Partners

  • Greens 25%
  • ACT 18%
  • Maori 11%
  • Labour 8.2%
  • National 5.5%
  • NZ First 2.7%
  • United Future 1.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
Best plan to fix the economy
  • National 49%
  • Labour 17%
  • Green 1.5%
  • ACT 1.8%
  • Maori 0.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 0.4%
Issues important to voting decisions
  1. Health and education 90%
  2. Economy 84%
  3. Law & Order 83%
  4. Cost of living 83%
  5. Rebuilding Christchurch 75%
  6. Environment 72%
  7. Social Welfare 65%
  8. Superannuation/KiwiSaver 64%
  9. SOEs 60%
  10. Taxes 59%
  11. Immigration 47%
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan Poll late July 2011

July 31, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 895, of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.5%

Dates: 11 July to 24 July 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-2.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (nc)
  • ACT 2.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 39
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 120

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/122 – 6 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 29.0% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (nc)
Leave a comment

One News Colmar Brunton Poll July 2011

July 21, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 860 had a party preference

Dates: 9 to 13 July 2011

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-7.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (+4.0%)
  • ACT 3.1% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.6%)
  • United Future 0.3% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 33
  • Green 12
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 71/121 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 12 + Mana 1= 46/121 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 54% (+1%)
  • Phil Goff 9% (+1%)
  • Winston Peters 3% (+15)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 52% (+4%)
  • Worse 28% (-5%)
  • Same 20% (+1%)
Capital Gains Tax
  • Support 43%
  • Oppose 49%
  • Don’t Know 9%
Raise tax rate to 39% for those over $120,000
  • Support 42%
  • Oppose 54%
  • Don’t Know 5%
Most trusted party to manage economy
  • National 53%
  • Labour 24%
  • Greens 2%
  • ACT 1%
  • Don’t Know 13%
Best Finance Minister
  • Bill English 49%
  • David Cunliffe 29%
  • Don’t Know 23%
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan Poll early July 2011

July 21, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 895, of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.5%

Dates: 27 June to 10 July 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+3.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (+2.0%)
  • ACT 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 42
  • Green 9
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – 4 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 52/122 – 10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.0% (+2.5%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (-0.5%)
Leave a comment

3 News Reid Research Poll July 2011

July 11, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 01 July to 07 July 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 55.1% (+2.1%)
  • Labour 29.9% (-2.9%)
  • Green 9.1% (+2.6%)
  • ACT 1.7% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.8%  (-0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 37
  • Green 11
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 49/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.5% (+2.3%)
  • Clark 1.7% (-2.8%)
  • Goff 6.9% (-0.7%)
  • Peters 3.9% (-0.1%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 72.1% (+3.5%) doing well vs 13.9% (-3.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 58.2% (+6.6%)
  • Goff  – 24.3% (-3.4%) doing well vs 49.8% (+2.5%) doing poorly – net positive is -25.5% (-5.9%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • capable leader – Key by 48% (-3%)
  • good in a crisis – Key by 37% (-5%)
  • sound judgement – Key by 30% (-6%)
  • in touch with Maori – Goff by 3% (+6%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • more style than substance – Key by 18% (-1%)
  • talk down to people – Goff by 7% (-1%)
  • narrow minded – Goff by 10% (-4%)
  • inflexible – Goff by 10% (nc)

Rugby World Cup Predicted Winner

  • NZ 65%
  • Australia 9%
  • South Africa 7%
  • England 3%
  • France 1%
  • Don’t Care 5%
  • Don’t Know 10%

Christchurch Earthquake Recovery

  • Government done a good job – 72% agree, 21% disagree
  • Gerry Brownlee done a good job – 57% agree, 28% disagree
Leave a comment

NZ Herald Digipoll June 2011

July 3, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 22 to 28 June 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald and NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 51.2% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 36.1% (+2.4%)
  • Green 6.6% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 1.2% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.7% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.9% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 44
  • Green 8
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 8 + Mana 1 = 53/124 -9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.6% (+2.9%)
  • Goff
  • Peters
  • Clark

Drinking Age

  • 58.6% want a 20/20 age for on and off-licenses
  • 25.7% want an 18 age for on-licenses and 20 for off-licenses
  • 14.5% want an 18/18 age for on and off-licenses
  • 80% support making it an offence to supply alcohol to an under 18 year old without the consent of their parents, with 18.5% against

Rugby World Cup

  • 59.2% say most important thing is visitors have a great time in NZ
  • 36.6% say most important thing is the All Blacks win
Welfare
  • 10% support sole parents on welfare having to seek work when youngest child is three
  • 32% support work testing at age five
  • 54% support work testing at age six
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan Poll late June 2011

July 3, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 916, of whom 838 have a party preference

Dates: 13 June to 26 June 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 5.5% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 3.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 38
  • Green 7
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 71/121 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 7 + Mana 1 = 46/122 – 15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 53.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 31.5% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (nc)
Leave a comment

New Plymouth Poll June 2011

July 3, 2011

The Taranaki Daily News reports a poll for New Plymouth:

  • 462 responses out of 820 people polled
  • Electorate Vote: Jonathan Young 41.6%, Andrew Little 25.3%, Neither 13.6%, Not Sure 19.5%
  • Party Vote: National 46.1%,Labour 16.5%, Greens 5.6%
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan poll early June 2011

June 21, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 897, of whom 816 have a party preference

Dates: 30 May to 12 June 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-6.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 3.0% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 9
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 70/121 – 9 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (-2.0%)
Leave a comment

Native Affairs Baseline Te Tai Tokerau Poll June 2011

June 14, 2011

Polling Company: Baseline

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 508, of whom 439 have a party preference

Dates: 2 June to 9 June 2011

Client: Native Affairs, Maori TV

Report: Not online

By-Election Vote

  • Harawira, Mana – 41%
  • Davis, Labour – 40%
  • Tipene, Maori – 15%

Party Support

  • National 10%
  • Labour 36%
  • Green 6.%
  • ACT 0%
  • Maori 25%
  • NZ First 2%
  • Mana 21%

Coalition Partner (for those who chose Maori or Mana)

  • National 28%
  • Labour 57%

Desired Relationship of Electorate MP to main governing party

  • Work alongside 73%
  • Work separate to 16%

Was by-election justified?

  • Yes 445
  • No 56%

Candidate Impressions

  • Can be trusted – Davis 50% Harawira 38%
  • Deliver on promises – Davis 35% Harawira 38%
  • Knows local needs – Davis 43% Harawira 57%
  • Politically experienced – Davis 39% Harawira 54%
  • Capable leader – Davis 44% Harawira 43%
  • Good in a crisis – Davis 43% Harawira 37%
  • Lots of personality – Davis 26% Harawira 66%
Leave a comment
« Later posts
Earlier posts »

Curia's blog specialises in polls and polling, with a mainly New Zealand focus. More

Never miss a poll: Subscribe via email

Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
Embed | Methodology

Explore the Archives

By date

By company

By issue

Get our paywalled newsletter on polling insights Subscribe

Get Curia's blog posts
via email