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GCSB powers poll

August 15, 2013

Research NZ asked 500 New Zealanders:

In the past the Government Communication Security Bureau, the GCSB, has not been permitted to monitor New Zealand residents. A law comes into force shortly that will allow the GCSB to monitor New Zealand residents as well as non-residents.

Are you in favour or not in favour of the GCSB being allowed to do this?

The results were:

  • 36% in favour
  • 52% not in favour

Trust in MPs

August 15, 2013

ResearchNZ asked 1,000 NZers to rate on a 0 to 10 scale if they trusted certain professions. The percentages who gave an eight or higher was:

  • Ambulance Service 93%
  • Fire Service 91%
  • Doctors and nurses 81%
  • Police 70%
  • Teachers 61%
  • Lawyers 29%
  • People who work for Govt 22%
  • Local Councillors 14%
  • Journalists 11%
  • MPs 9%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006 respondents of whom 862 had a voting preference

UndecidedsDates: estimate 27 July to 31 July 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (nc)
  • Green 14.0% (+5.0%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2%(-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.3% (-0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.6% (-1.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 42
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 17 + Mana 1= 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 41% (-1.0%)
  • David Shearer 13% (+1.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Next National Leader

  • Bill English 23%
  • Steven Joyce 16%
  • Judith Collins 11%
  • Someone else 5%
  • Don’t know 45%

Economic Outlook

  • Better 52% (-3%)
  • Worse 28% (+2%)
  • Same 20% (+1%)

Meridian share float

  • 14% likely to buy shares
  • 86% unlikely

GST on international purchases

  • 36% support GST on online purchases of under $400
  • 59% oppose

Foreign property buyers

  • 62% support foreigners being unable to buy
  • 32% opposed

 

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 824 of whom 791 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 15 July 2013 to 28 July 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/122 – six more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 51/122 – eleven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll there would be a centre-right government.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 30.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.0%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom 831 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.2%

Dates: 09 to 17 July 2013

Client: 3 News

Report3NewsPoll July 2013

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+2.4%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.1%)
  • Green 12.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.2% (nc)
  • Maori 1.6%  (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (+1.7%)
  • Conservative 1.1% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 40
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 56/124 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 42.0% (+1.3%)
  • Shearer 12.1% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 7.0% (+0.9%)
  • Norman 1.7% (-1.9%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

  • John Key – 52.0% (-3.0%) well and 32.2% (+1.9%) poor = +19% net well (-4.9%)
  • David Shearer – 26.1% (-10.1%) well and 43.3% (+7.0%) poor = -17.2% net well (-17.1%)

Kim Dotcom

  • 52% believe Kim Dotcom’s claims John Key knew of him before the raids
  • 34% believe Key’s denials

David Shearer

  • 42% say Shearer should step down as Labour leader
  • 45% say Shearer should remain
  • 39% of Labour voters say Shearer should step down, 51% say stay

Alternate Labour Leaders

  • David Cunliffe 26%
  • Grant Robertson 16%
  • Andrew Little 9%

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 956 of whom 918 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 01 July 2013 to 14 July 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll there would be a centre-right government.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+1.5%)

The Press reports:

A Press Research First poll has revealed that nearly a third of Christchurch voters are undecided and another third of the electorate could also be up for grabs.

The poll was taken before Christchurch Mayor Bob Parker announced he was not going to stand for another term.

It found that Parker was attracting only 20 per cent of the vote, Labour MP Lianne Dalziel was winning 48 per cent, while 32 per cent of people were undecided.

The poll also shows that 40 per cent of people who said they would vote for Dalziel were doing so because they wanted a change or were unhappy with Parker.

About 41 per cent of the mayoral choices were tactical in some way, meaning they were voting against the other candidate rather than for their choice.

Of those that had chosen a candidate, 70 per cent favoured Dalziel and 30 per cent supported Parker.

Another story states:

Christchurch people have given their city councillors the worst rating ever seen by a polling company, but do not want the Government to take over, a new survey says.

The Press Research First poll has found widespread disillusionment with councillors and the mayor over their leadership since 2010. The main complaint was dysfunction and lack of unity.

The poll asked Christchurch residents to rate the performance of council leadership on a scale from zero to 10, with zero being very poor. About 60 per cent of people gave council leadership a score lower than five. …

The poll also found that Christchurch people do not want the Government to take over council leadership as it did with Environment Canterbury in 2010.

About 51 per cent of those polled said they disagreed with Government intervention. Twenty-eight per cent agreed with a Government takeover.

And a further story on CERA:

People were asked to rate Cera on a scale of zero to 10, with zero being very poor. About 20 per cent of respondents gave Cera a five out of 10; 26 per cent said Cera were doing a good job, 13 per cent complained of a lack of progress; and 9 per cent said they could be doing a better job.

Lack of progress was the main reason for a poor rating.

Research First also calculated a ratings score based on the ratio of low ratings to high. The score ranges from +100 to -100. Cera scored -51 on the scale, compared to -79 for councillors and the mayor, which was the worst ever seen by the polling company.

 

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 971 of whom 913 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: 17 June 2013 to 30 June 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (+2.5%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-1.5%)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 3.5% (-2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 40
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/122 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 58/122 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 57.0% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 32.0% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 11.0% (-1.5%)

NZ Herald poll June 2013

June 26, 2013

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.9%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 661 had a party preference

Dates: 12 to 23 June 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.8% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 30.9% (-5.5%)
  • Green 10.5% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.1% (+2.6%)
  • Maori 1.8% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 38
  • Green 13
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/123 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 52/123 -10 less than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/123

Preferred PM

  • Key 65.2% (+2.2%)
  • Shearer 12.4% (-6.1%)
  • Peters 6.4% (+2.4%)
  • Norman 3.6%

Labour Leadership successors if Shearer goes

  • David Cunliffe 31.8%
  • Grant Robertson 16.7%
  • Andrew Little 13.5%
  • Other 11.0%
  • Unsure 27.0%

Inquiry into GCSB

  • Agree 52.1%
  • Disagree 36.9%
  • Don’t Know 11.0%

Peter Dunne

  • 22% believe he did not leak GCSB report
  • 59% do not believe his denial

Sky City deal

  • 34% approve
  • 62% disapprove

Fluoride

  • 48% support fluoride being added to drinking water
  • 25% opposed
  • 24% up to local council

Fiordland transport projects

  • 46.2% back a tunnel and/or monorail track
  • 46.2% oppose

National leadership when Key goes

  • Bill English 29.7%
  • Steven Joyce 25.4%
  • Judith Collin 13.0%

Student Loans

  • 57% agree with arresting loan defaulters at the border
  • 40% disagree

Sir Douglas Graham

  • 55% say he should lose knighthood
  • 33% disagree

Working for Families Tax Credits

  • 51% support extending to parents on welfare
  • 41% opposed

Housing developments

  • 43% back Govt having power to override councils’ planning and consent processes
  • 51% opposed

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 909 of whom 854 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: 03 June 2013 to 16 June 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 11.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 41
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 56/122 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 54.0% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 33.5% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)
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