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Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 respondents, of whom 834 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 15 to 19 February 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 51.0% (+6.0%)
• Labour 34.0% (nc)
• Green 8.0% (-5.0%)
• ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
• Maori 0.9% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
• NZ First 3.1% (-0.8%)
• Conservative 1.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 44
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 44 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 43% (+1.0%)
• David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%)
• Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Winston Peters

• 43% say he should be a Minister
• 43% say he should not

Most important issues

• Education 40%
• Health 37%
• Jobs 30%
• Child poverty 27%
• Wages 23%
• Crime 21%
• Income tax 17%
• Asset sales 17%
• House prices 15%
• Inequality 14%

Minimum Wage

• Increase to more than $15/hour 23%
• Increase to $15/hour 46%
• Increase to less than $15/hour 16%
• Stay at $13.75/hour 13%

NZ Flag

• Design a new flag 28%
• Keep current flag 72%
• If change, 85% say public should decide design

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 859 of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 03 February to 16 February 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 48.0% (+1.0%)
• Labour 30.0% (-3.0%)
• Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 5.5% (+1.0%)
• Maori 0.5% (-1.0%)
• United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
• ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
• Mana 1.0% (nc)
• Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 36
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 52/123 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 7/123

On this poll a centre-right Government could be formed with the Maori Party or NZ First. A centre-left Government would need both the Maori Party and NZ First.

Country Direction

• Right 63.5% (nc)
• Wrong 23.5% (-1.0%)
• Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.0%)

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,018 of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17%

Dates: 10 February to 12 February 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 49.4% (-0.8%)
• Labour 31.8% (-1.8%)
• Green 10.0% (-0.7%)
• NZ First 3.6% (+1.3%)
• Maori 1.1% (+0.4%)
• United Future 0.1% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
• Mana0.3% (-0.4%)
• Conservative 2.1% (+1.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 41
• Green 13
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 41 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 55/124 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

• Right 63.7% (+4.2%)
• Wrong 35.6% (-4.9%)

Government Rating

• 5.8/10 (+0.2)

Time for a change

• Yes 47.3% (-2.8%)
• No 48.0% (+4.9%)

Baby Bonus

• Support 48.5%
• Oppose 48.1%

Raise Taxes

• Support 25.2%
• Oppose 69.4%

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 846 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 20 January to 02 February 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 47.0% (+3.5%)
• Labour 33.0% (-0.5%)
• Green 11.0% (-1.5%)
• NZ First 4.5% (+0.5%)
• Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
• ACT 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 1.5% (-1.01.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 42
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 57/123 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll there would be a centre-right Government,

Country Direction

• Right 63.5% (+0.5%)
• Wrong 24.5% (+1.0%)
• Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.5%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 21 to 28 January 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 44.5% (-3.2%)
• Labour 33.5% (+1.2%)
• Green 12.4% (-1.6%)
• ACT 0.0% (+0.6%)
• Maori 1.0%  (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Mana 0.3% (+1.1%)
• NZ First 5.7% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 2.1% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 55
• Labour 42
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/125 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 58/125 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/125

On this poll, NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• Key 39.0% (-1.9%)
• Cunliffe 10.8% (nc)
• Peters 5.8% (-1.7%)
• Norman

NZ First

• 54% say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 36% say he should rule him out
• 61% of National supporters say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 32% say he should rule him out

Internet Party

• 21% said they would consider voting for Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party
• 75% would not

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,509 of whom 1,449 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 06 January to 19 January 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 43.5% (-1.5%)
• Labour 33.5% (+3.0%)
• Green 12.5% (-2.0%)
• NZ First 4.0% (-1.0%)
• Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
• ACT 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Conservative 2.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 56
• Labour 43
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 63.0% (+4.5%)
• Wrong 23.5% (-5.0%)
• Can’t Say 13.5% (+0.5%)

Polling Company: Key Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 18.6%

Poll Size: 500 respondents, of whom 407 had a voting preference

Dates: December 2013

Client: Herald on Sunday

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 48.2%
• Labour 39.6%
• Green 7.6%
• NZ First 1.0%
• Maori 0.7%
• United Future 1.0%
• ACT 0%
• Mana 0.2%
• Conservative 0.7%

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 49
• Green 9
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/124 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 49 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 59/124 -four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• Key 45%
• Cunliffe 18%

Asset Sales

• 37% say less likely to vote National because of them

Stuff reports:

The Te Karere-Digipoll asked voters when they choose their local MP which party would the candidate likely come from.

Labour had the edge with 32 per cent over Mana with 28 per cent.

A Maori party candidate would get 14 per cent, the survey found.

Harawira held the seat in 2011 with a 1165 majority over Labour’s Kelvin Davis.

The poll had Green and National candidates on 3 per cent each and NZ First on 2 per cent.

Another 18 per cent were either undecided or picked another option, but the pollsters did not provide a breakdown.

When it came to the party vote Labour was backed by 30 per cent, Mana by 19 per cent and the Maori Party 19 per cent

National scored 6 per cent, the Greens 8 per cent each and NZ First 3 per cent.

Fourteen per cent were undecided.

With undecideds taken out, Labour was on 35 per cent of the decided vote (34.7 per cent at the 2011 election), with Mana on 22 per cent (24.5 per cent in 2011) and Maori on 22 per cent (11.2 per cent in 2011). 

There was strong backing for Harawira’s performance as the local MP with 14 per cent rating it “fantastic”, 39 per cent above average and 31 per cent average.

Only 12 per cent rated it either below average or poor. 

The survey of 500 had a margin of error of 4.3 per cent.

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom approx 857 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.3%

Dates: approx 03 to 07 November 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3NewsPoll november 2013

Party Support

• National 46.3% (-3.2%)
• Labour 32.2% (+1.2%)
• Green 10.4% (-1.6%)
• ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
• Maori 1.2%  (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
• Mana 1.3% (+1.1%)
• NZ First 4.2% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 2.8% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 42
• Green 14
• ACT 0
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on ACT losing Epsom and the Maori Party losing one seat.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 0 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 2 = 58/121 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 2 = 2/122

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 40.9% (-1.1%)
• Cunliffe 10.8% (-1.3% from Shearer)
• Peters 7.5% (+0.5%)
• Norman 2.2% (+0.5%)

Leader Ratings

• John Key – 58% well (+6%) and 28% poor (-4%) = 30% net positive (+10%)
• David Cunliffe – 42% well (+16% from Shearer) and 25% poor (-19%) = 18% net positive (+35%)

KiwiAssure

• 42% support a state insurer
• 49% oppose it