Blog

Roy Morgan poll early May 2014

May 22, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 873 of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 05 May to 18 May 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-0.5%)
  • Green 13.5% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Internet 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 37
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/123 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 55/123 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.0% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 28.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)
Leave a comment

Fairfax Ipsos poll May 2014

May 14, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 10 May to 12 May 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 47.6% (-1.8%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-2.3%)
  • Green 12.7% (+2.7%)
  • NZ First 3.7% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.9% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.9% (+0.4%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 1.6% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 38
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 55/122 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48.6% (-1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 13.4% (-3.9%)
  • Winston Peters 3.4% (+0.6%)

Country Direction

  • Right 63.6% (-0.1%)
  • Wrong 35.7% (+0.1%)

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 46.3% (-1.0%)
  • No 48.1% (+0.1%)

Keep interest rates low

  • National 40%
  • Labour 26%

Spending

  • Should increase spending in Budget 21%
  • Decrease spending 21%
  • Maintain current levels 51%

Most important issues

  • Freeze on energy and fuel prices 74% personally/69% for country
  • Tax cuts for workers 70%/69%
  • Increase minimum wage 55%/72%
  • Help first time buyers 54%/76%
  • Reduce childcare costs 44% personally/66% for country
  • Increase paid parental leave 32%/45%
  • Introduce capital gains tax 28%/44%
  • Increase pension age 26%/46%

Government performance

  • Keeping unemployment down – 52%
  • Balancing tax and expenditure – 57%
  • Managing economy 69%
  • Improve standard of living 41%
  • Improve standard of living for poor people 31%
  • Improve standard of living for rich people 75%
Leave a comment

Q+A Colmar Brunton Poll May 2014

May 11, 2014

Colmar Brunton have done a poll of 500 respondents for TVNZ’s Q+A programme. Their findings:

  • 42% say Judith Collins should resign as a Minister and 42% disagree
  • 50% say her behaviour has been damaging to the Government, and 42% say it won’t make a difference
  • 46% say John Key has handled Collins and Williamson well and 42% say not well
  • 23% say these issues will influence their vote and 75% say they will not.

Stats Chat comments on this poll here.

Andrew at Grumpolie responds to some of the comments and analysis of the poll here.

Leave a comment

3 News Reid Research Poll March 2014

March 31, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 18 to 26 March 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 45.9% (+1.4%)
  • Labour 31.2% (-2.3%)
  • Green 11.2% (-1.2%)
  • ACT 1.1% (+1.1%)
  • Maori 1.5%  (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 1.1% (+0.8%)
  • NZ First 4.9% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.9% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 42.6% (+3.6%)
  • Cunliffe 9.0% (-1.8%)
  • Peters
  • Norman

David Cunliffe

  • were his actions with his secret trust worthy of a PM – No 65%, yes 28%

Leader Ratings

  • John Key – 65% (+7%) say performing well, 26% (-3%) poorly = +39% (+10%) net approval
  • David Cunliffe – 30% (-9%) say performing well, 46% (+16%) poorly = -10% (+25%) net approval
Leave a comment

One News Colmar Brunton poll March 2014

March 30, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 respondents, of whom 767 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 18%

Dates: 22 to 26 March 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (+3.0%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 7.0% (+3.9%)
  • Conservative 2.3% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/125 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 54/125 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/125

On this poll the Maori Party could allow a centre-right Government to be formed or both the Maori Party and NZ First could support a centre-left Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (-1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 8% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)
Leave a comment

Herald Digipoll March 2014

March 30, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.4%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 665 had a party preference

Dates: 06 to 16 March 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-5.9%)
  • Green 13.1% (+2.3%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 0.2% (-1.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 17
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/125 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 55/123 -eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 66.5% (+4.6%)
  • Cunliffe 11.1% (-5.4%)
  • Peters 6.5% (-0.8%)
  • Norman 4.5% (+1.1%)

Baby Bonus of $60 a week

  • Support 47%
  • Oppose 49%

Kim Dotcom

  • Should be extradited if court rules eligible 47%
  • Should not be extradited 42%

NZ Flag

  • Support new flag 41%
  • Keep current flag 53%

Countdown

  • 51% believe Shane Jones allegations
  • 20% believe Countdown

Len Brown

  • Would vote for Brown in 2016 – 23%
  • Would not vote for Brown – 58%
  • Brown can still be an effective advocate – 52%
  • Brown should have resigned 50% (+12%)
  • Brown should not have resigned 38% (-13%)

Income Inequality

  • 44% say gap between rich and poor has got a lot bigger
  • 30% say a little bigger
  • 22% say gap the same
  • 3% say gap has closed
  • 33% say they are better off under National
  • 30% the same
  • 30% worse off
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan poll mid March 2014

March 30, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 873 of whom 838 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 03 March to 16 March 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.5% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (+3.5%)
  • NZ First 3.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Internet 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 40
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.0% (-4.0%)
  • Wrong 25.5% (+2.0)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+2.0%)
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan poll early March 2014

March 7, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 977 of whom 943 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 17 February to 02 March 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 10.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (+1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/121

On this poll a centre-right Government would be formed.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.5%)
Leave a comment

New Zealand Flag

March 1, 2014

Research NZ found:

  • 22% agree NZ should adopt a new national flag, 37% disagree
  • 41% of those who back a change, support the black flag with silver fern design, with 57% opposed
Leave a comment

Religion in schools

March 1, 2014

UMR found:

  • 27% agree New Zealand schools should include classes on Christianity taught from a Christian perspective, with 47% disagreeing
  • 74% agree New Zealand schools should teach about the differences between religions but not about which religion is right with 12% disagreeing
  • 68% agree Evolution should be taught as the view of how life developed which is generally accepted by scientists with 14% disagreeing
  • 38% agree Evolution, creationism and intelligent design should be taught as equally valid explanations for how life developed with 38% disagreeing
Leave a comment
« Later posts
Earlier posts »

Curia's blog specialises in polls and polling, with a mainly New Zealand focus. More

Never miss a poll: Subscribe via email

Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
Embed | Methodology

Explore the Archives

By date

By company

By issue

Get our paywalled newsletter on polling insights Subscribe

Get Curia's blog posts
via email