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One News Colmar Brunton Northland Poll

March 27, 2015

Poll results are at Colmar Brunton.

  • Winston Peters 53%, Mark Osbrone 36%, WIllow-Jean Prime 9%
  • 69% of Labour supporters voting Peters and 15% of National supporters
  • 71% say National has made spending pledges only because they are worried Peters may win, 19% disagree
  • Only 4% say National’s spending pledges made it more likely they will vote National and 20% less likely
  • Party Vote – National 49%, Labour 20%, NZF 20%, Greens 8%
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3 News Northland poll

March 25, 2015

3 News reports:

The latest 3 News-Reid Research poll shows Mr Peters is ahead in the race for the electorate. He’s way ahead on 54 percent, with National candidate Mark Osborne polling only 34 percent. …

Bridges is another big issue, with National promising up to $69 million for bridges in the region.

Asked if it’s a bribe, 74 percent of voters said yes, 22 percent said no and the rest – 4 percent – said they didn’t know.

“People can see through it – they know it’s just a bribe,” says Mr Peters.

Still, a majority – 58 percent – said they want the bridges, while quite a lot – 39 percent – said they didn’t. The rest didn’t know.

Asked if they trust Winston Peters, 43 percent said yes, while a majority 48 percent said no. The rest didn’t know.

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Roy Morgan poll March 2015

March 20, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 896 of whom 865 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 02 March to 15 March 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Scoop

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National would need either the Maori Party or NZ First to govern, while Labour would need both of them.

Country Direction

  • Right 64.5% (+9.5%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-7.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-2.5%)
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Q+A Northland Poll

March 9, 2015

Q+A Poll of Northland:

  • Mark Osborne, Nat 36%
  • Winston Peters, NZF 36%
  • Willow-Jean Prime, Labour, 20%

If Prime steps aside:

  • Winston Peters 51%
  • Mark Osborne 37%

Merge Northland Councils

  • Yes 18%
  • No 71%

Oil and gas drilling in Northland

  • 47% support
  • 42% oppose
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3 News Northland Poll

March 5, 2015

3 News reports:

  • Winston Peters, NZF 35%
  • Mark Osborne, Nat 30%
  • Willow-Jean Prime, Lab, 16%
  • Don’t Know/Won’r Vote 19%

Also:

  • 71% say voters should have been told of Sabin investigation, 20% no
  • 13% say Peters is too old, 85% no
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Wellington local government amalgamation poll

February 24, 2015

The Dominion Post reports:

Nearly three quarters of people living in the Wellington region do not want to be part of a proposed super-city, a new poll reveals.

Wellington City Council has released the results of a Nielsen survey it commissioned this month, which found just 26 per cent support across the Wellington region for merging its nine councils. …

Wellington City Council’s survey found support for the proposal was just 17 per cent in the Wairarapa and 18 per cent in Hutt Valley.

Support in Porirua and Kapiti was slightly higher at 29 per cent, while 30 per cent of those living in Wellington city were keen on the idea.

Wade-Brown said there was still an opportunity to re-think the super-city proposal and come up with a new approach.

The survey showed an alternative model with a separate Wairarapa council and one or more metro councils formed across the remainder of the region would have 50 per cent support.

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One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2015

February 23, 2015

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 840 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 14 February to 18 February 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (+3.9%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+5.8%
  • Green 10.0% (-2.5%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.4% (-1.4%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-2.1%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-2.9%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 = 51/122 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 2 + NZ First 7 = 9/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 41% (-2.0%)
  • Andrew Little 12% (nc from Cunliffe)
  • Winston Peters 7% (+2.0%)

Islamic State

  • 48% support sending New Zealand troops to help train Iraqi security forces to fight ISIS
  • 42% opposed

Alcohol Sponsorship and Advertising

  • 47% support a ban on alcohol sponsorship and advertising
  • 45% opposed
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Roy Morgan poll early February 2015

February 23, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 891 of whom 846 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 02 September to 15 February 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 37
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 15 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-12.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+8.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+4.0%)
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3 News Reid Research Poll Jan 2015

February 2, 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 20 to 28 January 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 49.8% (+4.3%)
  • Labour 29.1% (+3.5%)
  • Green 9.3% (-5.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.3%  (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.6% (-1.4%)
  • NZ First 6.9% (-0.2%)
  • Conservative 2.7% (-2.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 36
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 12 = 48/122 – 14 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/122

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 44.0% (-0.1%)
  • Andrew Little 9.8% (-2.5% from Cunliffe)

Andrew Little as Leader

  • Better match for Key than predecessors 55%
  • The same 12%
  • Worse 18%
  • Don’t Know 18%

Leader Ratings

  • John Key – performing well 63%, performing badly 24%, net approval = +39%
  • Andrew Little – performing well 45%, performing badly 17%, net approval = +28%

Whale Oil

  • Key should stop texting Whale Oil 68%
  • Key should continue texting 18%
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NZ Herald DigiPoll December 2014

December 26, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds:

Poll Size: 750 respondents

Dates: 05 December to 18 December 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.4% (+2.2%)
  • Labour 28.9% (+3.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.6% (-2.8%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 2.9% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 36
  • Green 12
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/122 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 12 = 48/122 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/122

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 65.0% (+0.7%)
  • Little 13.6% (-2.6% from Cunliffe)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 33.8% 42
Labour 31.2% 39
Green 9.8% 12
Act 9.3% 12
NZ First 7.0% 9
TPM 4.4% 6
CR 50.1% 63
CL 45.3% 57
7/04/25
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