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UMR flag poll

September 2, 2015

UMR polled 1,000 people in August 2015 on flag options. Findings.

Preferred Alternative Design

  • Silver Fern and Southern Cross on red and blue 25%
  • Silver Fern and Southern Cross on black and blue 19%
  • Silver Fern and Southern Cross on black 8%
  • Silver Fern and Southern Cross on red and black 6%

First Preference vs current flag

  • 52% change to preferred
  • 48% retain

Care about design of flag

  • 42% a lot
  • 35% a fair amount
  • 17% not that much
  • 5% not at all

 

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NZ Herald DigiPoll August 2015

August 26, 2015

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subscriber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 of whom 660 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 14 August to 24 August 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (-0.2%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+2.3%)
  • Green 9.2% (-1.6%)
  • NZ First 6.9% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 0.2% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.6%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.6% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 38
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/122

On this poll National would be able to govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 63.7% (-0.9%)
  • Andrew Little 13.3% (-0.6%)
  • Winston Peters 11.6% (-0.4%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.9% (+3.4%)

Country Direction

  • Right 50.9% (-4.4%)
  • Wrong 40.9% (+4.9%)

Next National Leader

  • Bill English 30.3%
  • Steven Joyce 14.2%
  • Paula Bennett 11.4%
  • Simon Bridges 7.2%

Next Labour Leader

  • Annette King 21.8%
  • Jacinda Ardern 20.1%
  • Grant Robertson 18.0%
  • Phil Twyford 4.0%

Private Prisons

  • 57% say prisons should always be run by the state
  • 38% say there is a place for well-run private companies operating prisons.

Foreign House Buyers

  • 32% support a ban on foreigners buying houses
  • 20% oppose a ban
  • 42% would support a ban if there is evidence foreign buyers are pushing prices up

NZ Flag

  • 53% against change in principle
  • 23% support change in principle
  • 24% depends on alternative designs

TPP

  • 30% oppose TPP
  • 20% support TPP
  • 45% not know enough to have a view

Iraq

  • 59% support the deployment of troops to do training (+2%)
  • 34% oppose
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Roy Morgan poll August 2015

August 21, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 892 of whom 843 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: early August to 16 August 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 50.5% (+7.5%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-5.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 33
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 13 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll National would be able to govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 54.0% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-4.0%)
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3 News Reid Research Poll July 2015

July 27, 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 15 to 22 July 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+0.6%)
  • Labour 31.1% (+0.7%)
  • Green 11.4% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 8.4% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 0.6% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.7% (-1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 37
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 38.3% (-1.1%)
  • Andrew Little 10.2% (-1.4%)
  • Winston Peters 11.3% (+0.1%)

Foreign buyers

  • 61% support banning foreign buyers from buying houses
  • 35% oppose
  • 4% don’t know
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One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2015

July 19, 2015

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 of whom 856 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 11 to 15 July 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (nc)
  • Maori 0.4% (-1.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-2.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 39
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/123 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 16 = 55/123 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/123

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 40.0% (-4.0%)
  • Andrew Little 8.0% (-1.0%)
  • Winston Peters 7.0% (-2.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 36% (-9%)
  • Worse 41% (+10%)
  • Same 24% (nc)

Genetic Modification

  • 44% support law change to allow NZ businesses to use some form of GM organisms
  • 49% oppose

Refugees

  • 53% support increasing quote from 750 to 1,000
  • 44% opposed

Organ donation compensation

  • 67% say organ donors should get compensation similar to ACC
  • 22% say organ donors should get the sickness benefit

Euthanasia

  • 75% support a terminally ill person being able to have a medical practitioner assist them to end their lives
  • 21% opposed
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Roy Morgan poll July 2015

July 18, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 886 of whom 837 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 29 June to 12 July 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-6.5%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+6.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 7.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 39
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 16 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 51.0% (-11.5%)
  • Wrong 33.0% (+6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 16.0% (+5.5%)
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Security Issues poll

July 12, 2015

Curia did a poll for the Dept of PM and Cabinet in October 2014 on security issues.

Findings include:

  • 10% of NZers think NZ faces a strong or great risk from terrorism, 39% a moderate risk, 39% a minimal risk and 9% no risk.
  • 68% of NZers think the GCSB overall is good (or very good) for New Zealand and only 7% bad
  • 76% of NZers think the SIS overall is good for New Zealand and only 5% bad
  • 71% of NZers think the Five Eyes agreement is good for New Zealand and only 9% bad
  • 29% of NZers think NZ intelligence agencies are interested in their private communications, while 62% do not think they are interested
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Roy Morgan poll June 2015

June 24, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 866 of whom 823 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 08 June to 21 June 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (+0.5%)
  • Green 13.0% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 = 48/121 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.5% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 27.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-0.5%)
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Trust in Occupations

June 9, 2015

Research NZ asked 500 NZers to rate how much they trusted 10 occupations on a 0 to 10 basis. The proportions who gave a 7 or higher were:

  1. Fire Service 93% (-4%)
  2. Ambulance Service 92% (-4%)
  3. Doctors and nurses 87% (-4%)
  4. Police 75% (-9%)
  5. School teachers 75% (-6%)
  6. Government employees 44% (+2%)
  7. Lawyers 43% (-4%)
  8. Local councillors 31% (+1%)
  9. MPs 25% (+7%)
  10. Journalists 23% (nc)

The change from 2013 is in brackets

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3 News Reid Research Poll May 2015

June 3, 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 21 to 27 May 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 46.4% (-3.4%)
  • Labour 30.4% (+1.3%)
  • Green 11.1% (+1.8%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.6%)
  • NZ First 8.1% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 1.9% (-0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 37
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39.4% (-4.6%)
  • Andrew Little 11.6% (+1.8%)
  • Winston Peters 11.2% (+3.6%)

John Key

  • Went too far with ponytail pulling 52%
  • Was just horsing about 42%

House Affordability

  • 33% says Government is doing enough to keep prices under control
  • 60% say not enough
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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