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Roy Morgan poll November 2015

November 13, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 862 of whom 806 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early November to 08 November 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.0% (+7.0%)
  • Wrong 28.5% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-4.5%)
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UMR Flag Poll October 2015

October 19, 2015

UMR polled 1,000 people online:

1st  preferences:

  • Red white and blue fern 36%
  • Black white and blue fern 33%
  • Red Peak 18%
  • Black and white fern 7%
  • Koru 6%

2nd round:

  • Red white and blue fern 37%
  • Black white and blue fern 34%
  • Red Peak 21%
  • Black and white fern 8%

3rd round:

  • Red white and blue fern 39%
  • Black white and blue fern 38%
  • Red Peak 23%

4th round:

  • Red white and blue fern 51.8%
  • Black white and blue fern 48.2%

Head to head matches vs current NZ Flag:

  • Red white and blue fern 36%
  • Black white and blue fern 35%
  • Red Peak 19%
  • Black and white fern 18%
  • Koru 13%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll October 2015

October 19, 2015

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 832 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 10 to 14 October 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.0% (-1%)
  • Green 12.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 9.0% (+2%)
  • Maori 0.8% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.4% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 40.0% (nc)
  • Andrew Little 8.0% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 8.0% (+2%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 42% (+9%)
  • Worse 33% (-12%)
  • Same 25% (+3%)

Smoke free areas

  • 53% support extending smoke free areas to outside areas of bars and restaurants
  • 45% disagree

Contraception

  • 70% say government should encourage contraception for mothers who have had multiple children placed into CYF care
  • 24% disagree

Benefits in Australia

  • 67% say NZ should restrict benefit eligibility for Australians, as Australia does for NZers

Australian Deportations

  • 58% say NZ should deport Australians who have served prison sentences of 12 months or more
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NZ Flag September 2015

October 16, 2015

ResearchNZ found:

  • 28% want a new flag
  • 61% do not
  • 43% support adding Red Peak to the referendum, 45% do not
  • The most popular alternative designs are Black, white and blue silver fern 31%, red white and blue silver fern 23%, Red Peak 22%, Koru 5%, black and white fern 1%
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Syrian refugees

October 16, 2015

Research NZ found:

  • 61% agree with Government decision to allow 750 Syrian refugees in, including 600 on top of quota
  • 28% disagree
  • 28% think the extra number of 600 is about right, 36% say it should be more and 23% less
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Roy Morgan poll October 2015

October 16, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 882 of whom 820 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early October to 11 October 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+5.5%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 11.5% (-3.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 35
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 53.0% (-5.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 16.0% (+3.5%)
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Gender Equality poll

October 2, 2015

 

Research NZ surveyed 500 New Zealanders on gender equality. Their findings:

  • In health system 14% say women treated more favourably, 9% men and 72% equal
  • In education system 18% say women treated more favourably, 10% men and 68% equal
  • In justice system 19% say women treated more favourably, 10% men and 59% equal
  • In social settings 10% say women treated more favourably, 26% men and 57% equal
  • In government 11% say women treated more favourably, 25% men and 54% equal
  • In workplaces 4% say women treated more favourably, 45% men and 46% equal
  • In business 2% say women treated more favourably, 62% men and 32% equal

Overall 9% of NZers saying they have been personally disadvantaged because of their gender.

55% say NZ has better gender equality than other Western countries, 9% say worse and 29% the same.

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Roy Morgan poll September 2015

September 23, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 of whom 806 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early August to 13 September 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-6.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+4.0%)
  • NZ First 5.5% (-2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 37
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)
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3 News Reid Research poll September 2015

September 23, 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 08 to 16 September 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 47.3% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+1.9%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.4%)
  • NZ First 7.9% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 40
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 12 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39.5% (+1.2%)
  • Andrew Little 10.8% (+0.6%)
  • Winston Peters 8.6% (-2.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.5%

NZ Flag

  • Change flag 25%
  • Keep flag 69%

Private Prisons

  • Govt only should run them 70%
  • 13% okay with Serco running them
  • 13% okay with private providers if not Serco

Labour Deputy Leadership

  • Jacinda Ardern 33%
  • Annette King 25%
  • Kelvin Davis 11%
  • Phil Twyford 3%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll September 2015

September 13, 2015

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 29 August to 02 September 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (nc)
  • Labour 32.0% (nc)
  • Green 12.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.2% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.1% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 40.0% (nc)
  • Andrew Little 10.0% (+2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 6.0% (-1.0%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 33% (-3%)
  • Worse 45% (+4%)
  • Same 22% (-2%)

NZ Flag

  • Change flag 28% (+2%)
  • Keep flag 66% (+2%)
  • Unsure 6% (-3%)

Foreign Investment in Sensitive Land

  • Continue current approval process 37%
  • Ban all foreign investment in sensitive land 54%

Private Prisons

  • Should should be privately run 21%
  • All should be run by Corrections 69%

TPP

  • Should sign 24%
  • Not sign 44%
  • Don’t know 32%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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