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Roy Morgan Poll March 2016

March 19, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 861 of whom 792 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early March to 13 March 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (+3.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 34
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 17 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 28.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+2.5%)
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UMR flag poll

March 7, 2016

Stuff reports:

As voting gets underway there is still overwhelming support for the current flag over a change to the silver fern design.

The latest UMR Research poll undertaken in the last week of February has 59 per cent wanting to keep the flag and 32 per cent in favour of change.

Because this poll was done over the phone, those people who were unsure which way they would vote were included and came out at 9 per cent.

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One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2016

February 22, 2016

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,004 of whom 855 had a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 13 to 17 February 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (nc)
  • Labour 32.0% (+1%)
  • Green 8.0% (-4.0%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (+1%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.6% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 39
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 10 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 40.0% (nc)
  • Andrew Little 9.0% (+1%)
  • Winston Peters 9.0% (+1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (-1%)

NZ Flag

  • Current Flag 63%
  • Alternative Flag 26%

Police Pursuits

  • Police should be able to pursue any vehicle that fails to stop 68%
  • NZ law should be changed 26%

TPP

  • May impact our sovereignty and I’m concerned 44%
  • May impact our sovereignty and not a big concern 22%
  • Not much impact of sovereignty 24%
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Roy Morgan poll February 2016

February 19, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 896 of whom 833 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early February to 14 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 33
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 11
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll National could form a CR Government with either ACT or United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 28.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+2.5%)
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Newshub Reid Research Flag poll

February 2, 2016

Newshub reports:

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is bad news for Prime Minister John Key, with 61 percent of people saying no, they don’t want to change the New Zealand flag. Only 30 percent want a change.

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Roy Morgan poll January 2016

January 22, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early January to 17 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 27.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 = 50/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 4 = 12/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power as both CR and CL would need them to form a Government. The CL would need NZ First also.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.5% (nc)
  • Wrong 28.0% (-3.0)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+3.0%)
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Herald DigiPoll December 2015

December 15, 2015

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 04 to 14 December 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 51.3% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 31.1% (+0.1%)
  • Green 8.2% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.7% (-1.2%)
  • Maori 2.1% (+1.9%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 37
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 10 = 47/121 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 65.2% (+1.5%)
  • Andrew Little 16.2% (+2.9%)
  • Winston Peters 7.9% (-3.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 2.8% (-1.1%)

TPP

  • 27% support (+5%)
  • 26% oppose (-6%)
  • 46% no view (nc)

Iraq

  • Support deployment 63% (+4%)
  • Oppose deployment 30% (-4%)

Obesity

  • 53% say school tuck shops should ban unhealthy food
  • 44% disagree

US Ship Visits

  • 50% say a US visit would be positive
  • 29% don’t want a visit
  • 16% say a visit would be a triumph for NZ nuclear free policy
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Roy Morgan poll December 2015

December 14, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 882 of whom 811 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early December to 06 December 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (nc)
  • Labour 28.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 33
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/120 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 = 50/120 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/120

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.5% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 9.5% (-2.0%)
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3 News Reid Research poll November 2015

December 14, 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 08 to 16 November 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 46.7% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 32.3% (-0.7%)
  • Green 10.2% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.7% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/122

On this poll National could form a CR government with either Maori Party or NZ First while Labour would need both the Maori Party and NZ First.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 38.3% (-1.2%)
  • Andrew Little 10.4% (-0.4%)
  • Winston Peters 9.3% (+0.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 4.2% (+0.7%)
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Q+A Colmar Brunton poll Nov 2015

December 14, 2015

A Colmar Brunton poll for Q+A found:

Most concerning issues in order:

  1. Wages
  2. Housing affordability
  3. Unemployment
  4. Foreign property ownership
  5. Immigration
  6. Climate change

Poverty

  • Government should be doing more about poverty 66%
  • Government is doing about right amount 27%
  • Government should be doing less 1%

Social Housing

  • Government should be doing more for social housing 55%
  • Government is doing about right amount 36%
  • Government should be doing less 3%

Republic

  • NZ should become a republic 19%
  • Stay with monarchy 73%

Australian deportations

  • NZ should deport non citizens who serve more than a year in prison 74%
  • Disagree 18%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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