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Roy Morgan poll December 2016

December 26, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 872 of whom 824 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 28 November to 11 December 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 28.5% (+5.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/120 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 = 53/120 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/120

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (-6.5%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+3.0%)
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National Leadership poll

December 6, 2016

A Fairfax Nielsen poll finds the following support to replace John Key as Leader and Prime Minister:

  • Don’t Know 39%
  • Bill English 37%
  • Steven Joyce 6%
  • Judith Collins 4%
  • Paula Bennett 4%
  • Amy Adams 3%
  • Other 6%

Also in terms of impact on voting National:

  • 9% now more likely to vote National
  • 16% less likely

And in terms of election timing:

  • 61% no early election
  • 17% as soon as possible
  • 13% within six months
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Roy Morgan poll November 2016

December 1, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 858 of whom 802 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early November to 20 November 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 23.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 28
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 28 + Greens 18 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll National could govern with ACT and/or United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (+9.5%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.0% (-4.5%)
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UMR poll on Scott Watson

November 27, 2016

The Herald reports:

GUILTY
2002: 59%
2016: 23%
NOT GUILTY
2002: 15%
2016: 29%
UNSURE
2002: 26%
2016: 48%

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One News Colmar Brunton poll November 2016

November 27, 2016

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,010 voters of whom 839 have a party preference

Undecideds: 16%

Dates: 12 November to 23 November 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+2%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2%)
  • Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.2% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 34
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 13 = 47/122 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 36.0% (-2%)
  • Andrew Little 8% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 8% (-3%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 43% (-2%)
  • Same 24% (nc)
  • Worse 33% (+2%)

Foreign property tax

  • Support a 15% tax on foreign house buyers in Auckland 75%
  • Oppose 18%

Plastic bag levy

  • Support a 15c per bag levy 78%
  • Oppose 19%

Surplus 2016

  • Increase spending 48%
  • Reduce debt 31%
  • Reduce taxes 17%
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ResearchNZ poll on Euthanasia

November 6, 2016

ResearchNZ polled 500 people on euthanasia:

Suppose a person has a painful, incurable disease. Do you think that doctors should be allowed by law to end the patient’s life, if the patient requests it?

  • Yes 65% (-2% from July 2015)
  • No 22% (-2%)
  • Don’t Know 13% (+4%)

Still thinking of that person with a painful, incurable disease, do you think that someone else, such as a close relative, should be allowed by law to help end the patient’s life, if the patient requests it?

  • Yes 43% (-1%)
  • No 46% (-2%)
  • Don’t Know 11% (+3%)
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Roy Morgan poll October 2016

November 4, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 873 of whom 816 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early October to 23 October 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+6.5%)
  • Labour 26.5% (-7.0%)
  • Green 11.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 32
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.5% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 29.0% (-6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.5% (+2.5%)
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Horizon poll on Auckland Mayoralty

October 7, 2016

NBR reports:

DECIDED VOTERS 

  • Phil Goff: 52%
  • Vic Crone: 15%
  • John Palino: 8%
  • Cloe Swarbrick: 7%
  • Mark Thomas 5%
  • Penny Bright: 5%
  • Others: 8%

INCLUDING UNDECIDED VOTERS 

  • Phil Goff: 38%
  • Vic Crone: 11%
  • John Palino: 6%
  • Cloe Swarbrick: 5%
  • Mark Thomas 4%
  • Penny Bright: 4%
  • Others : 5%
  • No response: 4
  • Don’t know: 23%

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Ipsos poll on immigration

October 2, 2016

Ipsos did a poll on immigration issues in multiple countries including 505 adults in NZ.

Findings include:

  • 48% say housing affordability is one of top two issues
  • 47% say immigration has been positive for NZ, 31% negative
  • A net 52% agree immigration should be targeted at professions with shortages
  • A net 48% say refugees can become highly valued contributors to society
  • A net 35% say immigration has made NZ a more interesting place to live
  • A net 28% say immigration is good for the economy
  • A net 30% agree immigration has placed too much pressure on public services
  • A net 15% are confident most refugees will integrate
  • A net 12% say immigration has made it harder for those here to get jobs
  • A net 10% say there are too many immigrants in NZ
  • A net 10% say terrorists who pretend to be refugees will enter NZ
  • A net 7% say immigrants are often better workers than those already here
  • A net -15% want an increase in the number of refugees
  • A net -35% say the number of immigrants who can move here should increase
  • A net -40% want no refugees accepted at all
  • 48% of NZers think Brexit was wrong decision for the UK and 32% right decision

The full results are here – ipsos-new-zealand-immigration-refugees-and-brexit-survey-report-2016

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Roy Morgan poll September 2016

September 28, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 864 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: early August to 18 September 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 41.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+8.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 8.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 51
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 51 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 53/121 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.0% (-6.0%)
  • Wrong 35.0% (+4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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