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Abortion poll

March 13, 2017

Curia did polling for ALRANZ on views of legality of abortion in different scenarios.

The net level of support (those saying legal less those saying illegal for each circumstance was:
– Pregnant woman likely to die +72%
– Foetus has no chance of survival +70%
– Pregnant woman likely to be permanently harmed +70%
– Pregnancy is a result of rape +65%
– Pregnancy is a result of birth control failure +31%
– Pregnant mother can’t afford to have another child +27%
– Pregnant woman doesn’t want to be a mother +22%

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Property prices poll

March 13, 2017

The Herald reports:

Half of all surveyed in the Property Institute’s February poll expressed an expectation prices would continue to go up in the next six months, with Wellingtonians and those aged 18 – 30 most likely to expect it to do so.

Of the 1006 people in the phone survey, 12 per cent thought the prices would drop, compared to 34 per cent who thought prices would go unchanged.

The poll also found the public ranked foreign investment as a strong influence in the market – on average 6.7/10, compared to 6.1/10 for tradespeople and developers and 6/10 for local investors.

Property Institute Chief executive Ashley Church said there had been a noticeable shift in public expectation since the last poll.

“Back in November 56 per cent of people thought property prices would keep rising in the next six months.

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Roy Morgan poll February 2017

February 28, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 852 of whom 805 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 30 January to 12 February 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 = 48/121 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll National would govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)

Most Important Issues

  • Housing 26% (-1%)
  • Poverty 17% (+1%)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2017

February 20, 2017

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 voters of whom 808 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 11 February to 15 February 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-4%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2%)
  • Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.8% (+0.8)
  • Conservative 0.2% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 13
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 13 + Maori 1 = 14/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 31.0% (-5% from Key)
  • Andrew Little 7% (-1%)
  • Winston Peters 8% (nc)
  • Jacinda Ardern 4% (+3%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 48% (+5%)
  • Worse 22% (-11%)
  • Same 30% (+6%)

Influential Issues

  • Housing 27%
  • Education 20%
  • Economy 16%
  • Health 15%
  • Environment 9%
  • Immigration 9%
  • Child Poverty 5%
  • Jobs 5%
  • Crime 4%

Most Important Issue

  • Housing 16%
  • Economy 11%
  • Health 8%
  • Education 7%
  • Immigration 6%
  • Environment 5%

Summer Holidays shift to February

  • Support 32%
  • Oppose 52%

Waitangi Day

  • Govt continue to attend at Waitangi 61%
  • Stop attending 31%
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Roy Morgan poll January 2017

February 3, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 03 January to 16 January 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 12.5% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/120 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 = 48/120 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/120

On this poll National could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First while Labour/Greens would need both NZ First and the Maori Party.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 23.0% (-4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+3.0%)
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Stay at home parenting poll

January 20, 2017

A poll by Curia for Family First found:

In the independent poll of 846 people undertaken by Curia Market Research, 74% of respondents agreed with the statement; “It is generally better for children when one of the parents can stay home as a full-time parent”. Only 19% disagreed. Strongest support came from Green Party supporters (86%) followed by NZ First supporters (76%). Lowest was from Labour supporters (69%). Stronger support was from males than females.

60% of respondents also agreed with the statement; “As the Government presently subsidises Early Childhood Education, the Government should also subsidise a parent who stays at home to care for a young child.” 30% disagreed, with 11% unsure or refusing to say.

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Sex education poll

January 20, 2017

A poll by Curia for Family First found:

In the independent poll of 846 people undertaken by Curia Market Research, 78% said that they would be confident teaching their children about sex and sexuality issues. Confidence was higher amongst National and NZ First supporters than Labour / Green supporters.

62% believe that parents, not the Government, should have the final say on what sex education is provided in schools – with parents of children under 18 stronger on this view than adults without young children (68% v 59%). Once again, National and NZ First supporters backed the role of parents (65% and 63% respectively) but support for the government rather than parents dictating the curriculum was higher amongst Green voters.

 

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Anti-smacking law poll November 2016

January 15, 2017

A poll by Curia for Family First found:

  • 23% agree it should be a criminal offence for a parent to give their child a smack that is reasonable and for the purpose of correction
  • 72% disagree
  • 65% said regardless of the law they would smack their child to correct their behaviour if they thought it was reasonable
  • 28% said they would not
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Roy Morgan poll December 2016

December 26, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 872 of whom 824 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 28 November to 11 December 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 28.5% (+5.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/120 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 = 53/120 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/120

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (-6.5%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+3.0%)
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National Leadership poll

December 6, 2016

A Fairfax Nielsen poll finds the following support to replace John Key as Leader and Prime Minister:

  • Don’t Know 39%
  • Bill English 37%
  • Steven Joyce 6%
  • Judith Collins 4%
  • Paula Bennett 4%
  • Amy Adams 3%
  • Other 6%

Also in terms of impact on voting National:

  • 9% now more likely to vote National
  • 16% less likely

And in terms of election timing:

  • 61% no early election
  • 17% as soon as possible
  • 13% within six months
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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