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Newshub Reid Research poll July 2017

July 31, 2017

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  June 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 45.2% (-2.2%)
  • Labour 24.1% (-2.3%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 13.0% (+3.6%)
  • Maori 1.2% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.4%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Opportunities 2.0% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 30
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 16
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 16 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 16 + Maori 1 = 17/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 25.8% (-0.4%)
  • Andrew Little 7.1% (+0.1%)
  • Winston Peters 11.9% (+2.2%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 8.7% (+2.1%)

Leader Approval

  • Bill English – 50.6% (-8.6%) well and 24.2% (+7.5%) poorly for a net +26.4% (-16.1%)
  • Andrew Little – 29.6% (-4.7%) well and 46.1% (+5.4%) poorly for a net -16.5% (-11.1%)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll late July 2017

July 30, 2017

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,005 voters of whom around 800 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 16%

Dates: 22 July to 27 July 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (nc)
  • Labour 24.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+4.0%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.8%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.3% (nc)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • Opportunities 2.0% (+0.9%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 30
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 14
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 18 = 48/122 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 14 + Maori 1 = 15/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 28.0% (+2%)
  • Andrew Little 6% (+1%)
  • Winston Peters 10% (-1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6% (nc)
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Roy Morgan poll July 2017

July 30, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 of whom 794 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.5%

Dates: 26 June to 9 July 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+5.0%)
  • Green 13.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 37
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 17 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll the NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0 (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-3.5)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+2.0%)
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UMR on Immigration

July 13, 2017

The Spinoff reports:

  • 34% positive on immigration
  • 41% neutral
  • 23% negative
  • 61% support migrants being able to continue traditional cultural practices, 33% opposed
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One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2017

July 10, 2017

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom around 789 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 1 July to 5 July 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (+2.0%)
  • Maori 1.8% (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Opportunities 1.1% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 14
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 14 = 47/122 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 14 + Maori 2 = 16/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.0% (-3%)
  • Andrew Little 5% (-3%)
  • Winston Peters 11% (+4%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 47% (-3%)
  • Worse 22% (nc)
  • Same 32% (+5%)

Euthanasia

Do you think a person who is terminally or incurably ill should be able to request the assistance of a doctor to end their life?”

  • Yes 74%
  • No 18%

America’s Cup

“Should the Government contribute taxpayer money to the next America’s Cup campaign?”

  • Yes 47%
  • No 34%

Cannabis

“It has been suggested that the sale of cannabis should be legalised. Its cultivation and sale would be
regulated. Do you support or oppose this idea?

  • Support 47%
  • Oppose 41%

Plastic Bag levy

“It has been suggested that New Zealand stores should charge consumers for plastic bags. The charge would
be 15 cents per bag. The purpose of the charge is to reduce the impact of plastic bags on the environment,
including animals and marine life. The money raised from the charge would go towards organisations who aim
to reduce waste.
Do you think introducing a charge for plastic bags is…?”

  • A good idea 82%
  • A bad idea 15%
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Roy Morgan on biggest issues

July 5, 2017

Roy Morgan reports on the biggest issues:

  1. Poverty 14%
  2. House prices 13.7%
  3. Homelessness 9.6%
  4. Government 6.2%
  5. Immigration 5.5%
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Roy Morgan poll June 2017

June 24, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 of whom 817 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 29 May to 11 June 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (+3.5%)
  • Labour 25.5% (-3.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 9.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 32
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 17 = 49/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5 (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 27.0% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.0%)
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Horizon poll on euthanasia

June 20, 2017

Horizon reported:

Support for medical assistance to die for those suffering from end-stage terminal illness and irreversible unbearable suffering was 75% overall, with only 11% opposed. …

Polling of another possible policy option found overall support was also very strong for medical assistance to die for people who had irreversible conditions, such as motor neurone disease, which may not cause death in the immediate future, with 66% in favour and 15% opposed or strongly opposed.

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Christ Church Cathedral poll

June 17, 2017

Stuff reports:

The survey, commissioned by Church Property Trustees, found 59 per cent of respondents felt Anglicans should not make the decision alone. About 48 per cent of those polled believed the Government should intervene in the future of the cathedral.

It also found 58 per cent of Christchurch residents polled favoured restoration of the earthquake-damaged building, while 33 per cent wanted a new building and 9 per cent did not mind or care what happened. …

However, respondents’ preferences changed after they were told a new build would not require government or ratepayer funds, would take eight years and would not have an impact on rates.

This was contrasted to restoration, which had a $56 million funding gap, would take seven years and would cost $1000 a day in insurance once restored. The survey did not mention the $10m government loan offer or a $15 million funding pledge from heritage group the Great Christchurch Buildings Trust for the restoration.

After this, 43 per cent of respondents wanted restoration, 49 per cent wanted a new build and 8 per cent eight per cent still did not mind or care what happened.

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Newshub Reid Research poll June 2017

June 15, 2017

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  June 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 47.4% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 26.4% (-4.4%)
  • Green 12.5% (+1.3%)
  • NZ First 9.4% (+1.8%)
  • Maori 0.7% (nc)
  • United Future 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.9% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.8% (+0.4%)
  • Opportunities 0.8% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 33
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 = 48/121 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.2% (+1.2%)
  • Andrew Little 7.0% (-1.3%)
  • Winston Peters 9.7% (+0.8%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6.6% (-3.9%)

Leader Approval

  • Andrew Little -6% (-5.5%)
  • Bill English +25% (-5%)

2017 Budget Family Incomes Package

  • Support 67%
  • Oppose 26%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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