Roy Morgan poll December 2012

January 14, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 880 of whom 840 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.5%

Dates: 26 November 2012 to 09 December 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 45.5% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+2.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 41
  • Green 14
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 14 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 53.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (-3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)

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