Roy Morgan poll late September 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 938, of whom 882 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6%

Dates: 28 August to 11 September 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 57.0% (+5.0%)
• Labour 26.0% (-3.5%)
• Green 7.5% (-1.5%)
• ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
• Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 3.5% (nc)
• Mana 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 71
• Labour 33
• Green 9
• ACT 2
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/121 – 13 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 43/122 – 18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 60.0% (+1.0%)
• Wrong 28.0% (+0.5%)
• Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.5%)