TV3 Poll December 2009
December 14, 2009
Polling Company: Reid Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 893 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 02 December to 08 December 2009
Client: TV3
Report: TV3
Party Support
- National 55.2% (-4.7%)
- Labour 30.8% (+3.6%)
- Green 7.8% (+0.9%)
- ACT 1.8% (+0.1%)
- Maori 1.7% (-0.7%)
- United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
- Progressive 0.1% (-0.2%)
- NZ First 1.5% (+0.5%)
Projected Seats
- National 68
- Labour 38
- Green 10
- ACT 2
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/125 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- Key 49.9% (-5.9%)
- Clark 6.1% (-2.1%)
- Goff 8.0% (+3.3%)
- Peters 2.1% (-0.9%
Leadership Approval
- Key – 72.9% (-9.4%) doing well vs 12.3% (+5.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.6% (-14.5%)
- Goff – 32.2% (-2.0%) doing well vs 40.6% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -8.4% (-4.7%)
Leadership Characteristics – Positive
- capable leader – Key by 41% (+1%)
- good in a crisis – Key by 29% (nc)
- sound judgement – Key by 23% (-5%)
- in touch with Maori – Key by 14% (+8%)
Leadership Characteristics – Negative
- more style than substance – Key by 12% (+4%)
- talk down to people – Goff by 8% (+1%)
- narrow minded – Goff by 7% (-3%)
- inflexible – Goff by 2% (-7%)